USA Swimming Has a Problem, But It’s Nowhere Near the Medal Table
(Note: This story has been updated to include the results of all eight finals sessions, ending Saturday.)
The first night of finals last Saturday at the Paris La Defense Arena brought a familiar enough site for USA Swimming, with one gold and three total medals.
The second day of prelims on Sunday brought a far rarer occurrence for a program that has long been at the vanguard of global swimming.
Two American swimmers Sunday morning failed to make it out of their prelims heats for semifinals. Chris Guiliano faltered in the men’s 200 freestyle, swimming 1:47.60 to finish 19th. Emma Weber went 1:07.65 to land in a tie for 23rd in the women’s 100 breaststroke. In between, reigning gold medalist Chase Kalisz finished a distant 11th in the men’s 400 individual medley, missing out on the top eight in an event that goes straight to finals.
The U.S. would add three misses in the next two days, Luke Whitlock not making the men’s 800 free final in Monday’s prelims, Luca Urlando on Tuesday finishing 17th in the 200 butterfly and Katie Grimes falling to 10th in the 1500 free, a trend that would reach 11 swimmers failing to qualify from prelims overall.
That is, by USA Swimming standards, a lot of misses, for the nation that perhaps more than even its medal potential reliably produces depth.
Just how rare was it? Well, how about more than the last four Olympics combined.
Only one swimmer at each of the last four Olympics missed the top 16 for a prelims-semifinals-finals meet. It’s not the club you want to be in: Andrew Wilson in the men’s 100 breaststroke in Tokyo; Tom Shields in the men’s 200 butterfly in Rio; Kara Lynn Joyce (via a three-way swim-off) in the women’s 50 free in London; Amanda Beard in the 200 breast in Beijing.
Through two days in Paris, the U.S. had already exceeded that count. And the hits kept coming until the end, Guiliano missing the 50 free semifinals, Thomas Heilman not getting even a second swim in the 100 fly and Simone Manuel bowing out of the 50 free shy of the 16-swimmer semifinals.
The last time the U.S. had multiple swimmers not make semifinals of an event at the same Olympics was in 2004, via Jason Lezak and Ian Crocker in the 100 free and Kristen Caverly missed the 200 back.
Kalisz and Grimes joined Kieran Smith, who didn’t make the top eight in the men’s 400 free, among Americans missing final in events that go straight there from prelims. It was a distance disaster for the men, with Smith in the 400, Whitlock in the 800 and David Johnston in the 1,500 all cratering.
The only American to miss a final in such a format in the last two Games is Michael Brinegar, who did so twice in Tokyo. Americans went 12-for-12 in prelims-finals events in Rio and 14-for-16 in Tokyo. In Paris, they were 11-for-16. Five misses of finals is the most since the current format of swims was reinstated with the 2000 Olympics.
The Olympics also hosted its first final since Rio in 2016 that doesn’t feature an American. That’ll be the 200 fly, with Urlando and Heilman, who was eliminated in semis. The same fate befell them in the 100 fly, with Heilman out in prelims and Caeleb Dressel in semifinals. You have to go back to the women’s 200 breaststroke in Rio for the last time that happened to the U.S.
Many of the events are relay legs, which is slightly more worrisome. Guiliano was coming off the 400 free relay in which he won gold Saturday night, splitting 47.33, second among the Americans. He recovered Tuesday morning to make semis in the 100 free and was a solid if not spectacular 1:46.74 on the 800 free relay that got the job done in prelims. That’s because Smith answered the call in the 800 free relay, as he always does, to help the U.S. take silver.
The sky has fallen before. See the Americans finishing fourth in the men’s 800 free relay in Tokyo but responding to win gold in Paris, or the debacle that was the mixed medley relay finishing fifth in Tokyo.
The current trend may be more perniciously creeping and enduring. Eight of the 11 swims have been by men, the male side of the ledger dragging Team USA way down. European men’s swimming has been ascendant, from the emergence in the British program to Italy’s stroke depth to transcendent stars like Leon Marchand and David Popovici, even when women’s swimming has been more locked in the U.S./Australia duopoly. That breadth is eating into the American advantage, even if the medal table doesn’t always reflect it.
It’s a worrying trend and one without an easy fix.
Past prelims struggles
(Prelims-semifinals-finals individual events)
- Paris 2024: Emma Weber (women’s 100 breast), Chris Giuliano (men’s 200 free and 50 free), Luca Urlando (men’s 200 fly), Thomas Heilman (men’s 100 fly), Simone Manuel (women’s 50 free)
- Tokyo, 2021: Andrew Wilson (men’s 200 breast)
- Rio, 2016: Tom Shields (men’s 200 fly)
- London, 2012: Kara Lynn Joyce (women’s 50 free)
- Beijing, 2008: Amanda Beard (women’s 200 breast)
- Athens, 2004: Jason Lezak and Ian Crocker (both men’s 100 free), Kristen Caverly (women’s 200 back)
- Sydney, 2000: Pat Calhoun (men’s 100 breast), Tom Wilkens (men’s 200 breast), Courtney Shealy (women’s 100 back), Staciana Stitts (women’s 100 breast)
(Prelims-finals individual events)
- Paris, 2024: Chase Kalisz (men’s 400 IM), Kieran Smith (men’s 400 free), Luke Whitlock (men’s 800 free), Katie Grimes (women’s 1,500 free), David Johnston (men’s 1,500 free)
- Tokyo, 2021: Michael Brinegar (men’s 800 free, men’s 1,500 free)
- Rio, 2016: None
- London, 2012: Andrew Gemmell (men’s 1,500 free), Chloe Sutton (women’s 400 free), Kate Ziegler (women’s 800 free)
- Beijing, 2008: Peter Vanderkaay (men’s 1,500 free), Kate Ziegler (women’s 400 free and 800 free), Katie Hoff (women’s 800 free)
- Athens, 2004: Erik Vendt (men’s 1,500 free), Kayln Keller (women’s 400 free), Katie Hoff (women’s 400 IM)
- Sydney, 2000: None
Instead of having 6 weeks of “training camps” in exotic locales with posh accommodations and chartered jets, maybe the Olympic team should do what the Paralympic Team does:
– Return to home team immediately after trials to train for 1 month
– Spend 1 week at training camp at the USOPTC
– Return to home team for 3 more weeks of training
– Fly commercial coach to Paris 10 days before opening ceremony
– Win a crap-ton of medals
Looks like the US men are definitely in need of help in the 1500!
Covid also affected the distance group.
Well written and spot on.
Maybe the US should do a better job supporting their own adult athletes and stop giving the precious few men’s University spots to Olympians from every other country.
💯 this!!
Totally agree, unfortunately not much can be done about that but things like foreign athletes using our Olympic facilities must stop.
You are spot on. It’s the same in diving. Diving relies on the NCAA to train their athletes–but 7 of the 11 female freshman at this years NCAAs were international divers. That’s not good odds for the future of diving in the United States. Finals in every dive event on the women’s side at NCAAs had at least 50 percent international divers, and all three NCAA women’s titles in diving this year were won by Internationals. USA Diving has no training center, we need these NCAA programs and their resources to support and train divers–but with the continued approach to recruit internationals that are older, more experienced, more international experience, and come from government sponsored training programs, coaches are hitting the “easy” button and recruiting these older seasoned international divers instead of United States divers. If you haven’t noticed, diving is on the decline, and if things don’t change, you will continue to see the the United States falter in diving at the Olympics and other International competitions.
Increase the number of university spots. Men’s spots = women’s spots. Stop university cowering to football and basketball.
For many universities it is football and basketball that subsidize the other sports.
You know that’s a common myth. There is no such thing as a revenue generating NCAA sport. It’s what a lazy researcher or writer would say.
Don’t think you understand how university swimming is funded. We will lucky to have non-revenue sports soon. Openly attacking revenue generates would be a suicide run for a non-revenue college sport
High revenue is not the same thing as high profits. Sports like football have really high costs. In addition to all the scholarships, there are a ton of coaches and the ones at the top make insanely high salaries. In many states, the highest-paid employee is the college football coach. Even when the team has a losing season.
Absolutely. Our collegiate swim programs are getting cut and reduced every year but the spots are given to these athletes. USA swimming and the NCAA need to do better and step up to invest our resources to our own talent.
I don’t think this is the right path, at best it just kicks the problem down the road. Eventually other countries get the facilities, get the coaches, etc. Take the British men at these games for example. They’re a relatively small country that beat our best in the 4×200, and none of them train in the US.
A worse outcome if we become protectionist though: this reduces competition within the US while training and competing in the NCAA for example. We want the best competitors training & competing in the US regularly because that makes our athletes better.
And we want the best coaches. We don’t want France or Hungary to pay Bob Bowman $1M per year to be their national team director. Instead we want Hubert Kos & Leon Marchand to live in Texas and train alongside Luke Hobson, Drew Kibler & Carson Foster.
Agreed. I also think too much focus here is on the end of the athlete timeline. USA Swimming needs to do a better job getting young kids competing in the pool. More young athletes in the sport = better athletes in their prime competitive years. More/better facilities across the US = more/better access to swimming programs.
This and if they all train together than it becomes a truly fair game as the one with best skills wins.
And another semi final miss. Ryan Murphy in the 200 backstroke. Also,Matt Fallon missed in the semis of the 200 breaststroke. Plus, the times are way off from the trails. Both Chris G and Jack Alexy were .6 slower in Paris then the trails. If they had swam thesame time they did at the trails,they would had medaled
It’s high time USA swimming stop allowing athletes that don’t swim for the US to train at our Olympic Training centers (ie Marchand, McIntosh etc).
Little can be done about NCAA having foreign athletes & guys like Bowman deciding to change sides, but US olympians should be the only ones using our Olympic facilities period.
Trump will close the border and keep those athletes out. Ha ha
Why are we giving scholarships particularly from public schools that receive a good deal of funding from tax generated state appropriations to foreign students?
Summer is a pro. Doesn’t goto the NCAA. She pays for her own ride. Plus she has tons of sponsorships that allow her to pay for her own coaches. So don’t lump her in with any of the other athletes.
Several of these swimmers tested positive for covid after their events… somehow that’s not worth mentioning? You don’t think maybe being sick contributed to them under performing?
Unlikely, most of the losses were expected due to lower personal best times previously posted compared to the winning athletes. It is a talent and swimmer development issue
I didn’t know this! Why hasn’t anyone reported this?
Even your swimming magazine comments are filled with moronic racist MAGA lovers making the truly deluded excuse that ‘foreigners in the pool’ are why your team suck. You literally have the best facilities in the world and every possible advantage, there has been ZERO reduction in US athletes using US facilities. They don’t have a limit in the pool you donkeys! Even your media networks know how soft you are and change the layout of the olhnpics medal tally so you don’t realise you’re in 5th place not 1st lol.
Regardless of anyone’s take on the above scholarship dollars should not be allocated to foreign students attending public universities that are supported by tax dollars. It might come out of a specific pot of money but It all comes “out in the wash” There is also significant costs of maintaining facilities so if they aren’t reaching into their pockets it is a solid NO.
In many cases, our swimmers are coming up just short at the wall. Plenty of “just missed” silvers. In a sport where margins are so tight, can we just dismiss the luck factor?
I don’t think the answer is keeping international kids from using our pools. That is silly. Summer McIntosh was a star before she even began training here.
The USA still has a deep roster. Sure, they are missing finals this year in some events. That is likely a testament to overall sport growth than it is emerging weakness.
In defense of Emma Weber, her cap fell off and goggles filled with water during the race. That’s certainly worth mentioning.
Swimming has changed over the past 30 years from a sport where athletes trained hard for months at a time with only 3 tapers per year (April/Aug./Dec) to one where swimmers are “suited up” virtually every month. In the past, athletes had a deeper base on which to rely when swimming two pressure packed meets in a short period of time.
This is true and an interesting observation.. Also I think many actually had good swims. Some good swims are not always best times. Also way more superstar women exist then men right now in world… The USA men need more versatile swimmers at early ages.
I don’t think this is universally true. I actually think it’s pretty rare. Interestingly, the NCAA team that i know of that does this (suits up for every meet) is also the team that’s also been the most successful at the Olympics: ASU. They swim fast & suit up nearly every meet, and Marchand, Kos & Kharun (3 of their stars) have all won medals.
With US Olympic trials being so close to the actual Olympics might be something else to consider. It’s hard to either maintain their taper or build up and taper again for the Olympics. I’m not sure most other countries have their trials so close to the Olympics.
Australian trials were at exactky the same time and their performance has been much better than the US team,
USA v Australia Swimming.
Fiercest rivals.
Best of friends.
I believe the #1 reason is the time between trials and Olympics. Hard to get a quality micro cycle in less than 6 weeks.Especially coming off a full taper for trials. Unfortunately,NCAA champs play into this.
novel idea: Olympic year NCAA season runs as a fall sport. Trials are moved to end of April, allowing 4+ months between NCAA’s then 3 1/2- 4 months between trials and Olympics. This can also coincide with senior age group swimmers qualifying for trials.
It’s time to change things USA Swimming! Unfortunately, I have little faith in the powers that be at the top of USA Swim.
The Australians just changed their trials to mirror ours after having a number of bad Olympics and are doing very well. Having trials right before the Olympics ensures that swimmers are swimming well this season, not 6 months ago.
Tip of the Iceberg. As more schools cut men’s swimming due to the NIL and House decisions, the Olympic sports at most schools will be cut. Look at men’s gymnastics. While they pulled off a bronze medal without the Russia team present, they face planted in the all-around and have a grand total of 1 gymnast in the apparatus finals. Hmm…think that might have something to do with there being only 11 D1 Gymnastics programs left. And don’t say club teams will fill the void. ZERO of the men’s gymnasts were from club programs.
Men’s tennis at the professional level is the same, NCAA schools cut Tennis, the number of competitive players, decreased.
Men’s wrestling programs crater, medal contenders crater.
Club programs tend to cater to those who develop early, NCAA programs also develop late bloomers, and they get a college education to top it off.
Stupid greed is ruining sports, just like it’s ruined our manufacturing economy.
Maybe Bowman needs to focus on his home country.
These are very interesting comments and I read many of them. I think we might consider having the Olympic Trials earlier in 2028. I like what one person said about going home to train and then coming back together as a team. Another thing might be to consider the wisdom of some of our elder coaches in leadership, not just who is having a few hot years. Finally, you can see that this team is super tired. I think they were more inspired to swim at the Olympic trials than in Paris at a less than stellar pool. I was surprised it wasn’t three meters because with that depth and the principles of physics with Bernoulli’s principle, the style of American swimming is complemented more with such depth. Congrats to all who participated and watched. God Bless you all!
Outside view
May be more countries are developing their own programs and up to date training methods are more widespread. Also the difference between the swimmers seems thiner. More density at this high level. Another thing is the attrition rate in teenagers. I know many swimmers quitting for lacrosse, soccer or basketball. Not an easy fix indeed.
USA swimming has a poor process of selecting the Olympic Coaches. I have heard from swimmers who attended Paris Olympics that coaches who where on deck mostly coach their own swimmers and those who do not have coaches present fell through the cracks.
With coaches getting monetary incentives coaching their swimmers to win medals, they may lose site of why they aren’t here to coach team USA, there’s no “I” TEAM.
There are too many conflicts of interests regarding athletes, relay placements for prelims and finals, it’s truly disappointing.
There is so much politics behind the scenes you scratch this so my swimmer can swim and I will guarantee your swimmer a relay spot and an Olympic Medal. It is disgraceful.
The entire relay selection and coaching selection process needs to be reevaluated and changed so we are preparing our athletes properly and all athletes attending Olympics have a coach on deck giving them the best opportunity for success at the Olympics.
Maybe have a few real good coaches who don’t have an athlete on the team who isn’t conflicted and is making sure all the swimmers get what they need and who connects with their home coach.
The lack of performance is directly proportional the the lack of coaching swimmers received who didn’t have a home coach involved in their preparation.
I don’t know the answer is, but it certainly isn’t what we did this year !