Photo Courtesy: Melissa Lundie
Commentary by Jeff Commings
WASHINGTON – We’re 18 months from the 2016 U.S. Olympic Swimming Trials, and everyone is starting to get serious about their preparations for the biggest swim meet in the United States. While it’s understandable that very few are looking even further to the 2020 Trials at this point, I couldn’t help but see some of our best 18-and-under swimmers starting to make a statement that they want to be among those headed to Tokyo in less than six years.
While the names I mention below isn’t inclusive of who could be a part of the USA Olympic team, it is a good representation of the names we’ll be talking about in 2020. Because they’re almost assured of spots on the 2016 Olympic team, I won’t go into detail about Katie Ledecky, Simone Manuel and Abbey Weitzeil here. The names that follow might make one or more finals in 2016 in Omaha, but will make a bigger presence in 2020. Feel free to post your own list in the comments section.
We have to start with Ryan Hoffer of Scottsdale Aquatic Club. With four national age group records this past week at junior nationals, he’s proving that he’ll do more than just try to make the 400 free relay in 2020. Hoffer has been one of the best junior swimmers in the 50 and 100 freestyle, adding the 100 butterfly and 100 backstroke to his growing list. By 2020, could his 200 freestyle also reach elite status? The only wild card is his long course prowess. Hoffer will need to back up last week’s short course performances with some extraordinary swims next summer to keep himself on the right path.
I have a hunch that Nation’s Capital Swim Club’s Andrew Seliskar will be in the hunt to make the 2016 Olympic team in the 200 butterfly, but might not have the chops to get past Tyler Clary, Tom Shields and/or Tom Luchsinger for the trip to Rio. But by the time 2020 rolls around, Seliskar could be a multiple event threat. Keep an eye on Seliskar not only in the 200 fly, but in both individual medleys, in the next few years.
Michael Andrew hasn’t been making the major time drops as a 15-year-old that he was seeing nearly every week when he was blazing through the 13-14 age group, but once the teenage pro puts a focus on a few events, he could get himself on the Olympic roster. I sense the 200 IM will be one of his best opportunities, as will the 100 free in a relay spot.
Last year, when NCAP’s Cassidy Bayer broke Mary T. Meagher’s national age group record in the 200-yard butterfly in the 13-14 age group, people began heralding her as the Second Coming of Madame Butterfly. That might hold true by 2020, when the 15-year-old gets more experience and training under her belt. With fellow teen Katie McLaughlin of Mission Viejo making a big leap forward this year in the 200 fly, Bayer will need to respond soon with a big long course swim of her own. The United States will sorely need a strong leader in the 200 fly in 2020 to help bring the country back onto the international medal stand.
Reece Whitley is the future of breaststroke. There is no argument about that. When you’re 14 years old and nearly breaking 53 seconds in the 100-yard breaststroke, the future is extremely bright for this Penn Charter Aquatic Club star. Whitley will continue to get taller, nearly reaching Matt Grevers heights, but how will that affect him as he matures? Kevin Cordes is likely to continue swimming until 2020, and he could be joined by another technically amazing breaststroker in Tokyo.
Kathleen Baker of SwimMAC Carolina surprised everyone by placing second last summer at the USA Swimming nationals, and most would argue that she’s a serious contender for the 2016 Olympic team. If Elizabeth Beisel or Elizabeth Pelton slip up (or slip literally, in Beisel’s case) in Omaha in 2016, Baker could sneak onto the team. But her time will definitely come in 2020 after a few years of training with Pelton and Missy Franklin at Cal.
The individual medley events might still have Elizabeth Beisel in 2020, as she has declared an intention to swim that far. Caitlin Leverenz and Maya Dirado might also be in the mix, making SOCAL’s Ella Eastin’s journey to Tokyo a bit tougher. Some time training at Stanford will only help Eastin as she rises up the ranks in the IM events.
Any other 18-and-unders who are showing they might be on the 2020 Olympic swimming team? Voice your opinions in the comments section.
A masterstroke of American aquatic journalism. Thanks for such a fun thought provoker. Maybe you can calendar a follow-up every 6-9 months to measure progress of those listed and new challengers joining in. I love it. Thanks.
Andrew swam a pr 1:56.57 200 breast to win consols @. Juniors and would have won race itself [finals] had he qualified a bit faster.
Who knows if Cordess’ll hang around six years for Tokyo?
Seliskar’s a threat in 200 breast too for Rio.
Isabella Robgione, James Jones, Megan Byrness, James Murphy, and Allison Goldblatt…. 2020 and even 2016
Easop Lee from NBAC is a name to watch as well…
You’re right. I watched her beat Allison Schmidt in 100 fly. Quite impressive (and she’s fourteen till March)!
Lindsey Clary. She’s on a similar path as her brother and has been making quite a name for herself in open waters.
Taylor Ruck should be on this list, she is a force to be reckon with and she is only 14!
AZswimmer,
Taylor is Canadian, and this is about a 2020 Team USA. Taylor will definitely make an impact during Canadian Trials.