United States, Australia to Face Off For Olympic Supremacy — Five Storylines to Watch in 2024
Thanks to a World Aquatics points system, the United States was named top team at the 2023 World Championships, and indeed, the Americans’ 38 medals was 13 more than the next-highest total. But anyone paying attention to the action in Fukuoka could tell that Australia was the dominant squad, with the Aussies winning 13 gold medals to seven for the U.S., and that advantage was 13-3 heading into the meet’s final day. The meet marked Australia’s first time beating the U.S. since the 2001 Worlds, also held in Fukuoka.
As the final days of 2023 tick away and 2024 beckons, the rivalry between the world’s most dominant swimming nations is undoubtedly the top storyline of the upcoming Olympic year. Will this be the Games where Australia truly reigns, or can the Americans rebound, using lessons from the pre-Olympic year disappointment to come up with big results on the sport’s grandest stage? It would not be the first time the Americans managed a successful turnaround, as plenty of swimmers who swam at both the 2015 World Championships and 2016 Olympics can attest to. But there is a long way to go.
Australia overcame two poor Olympic performances in a row with an excellent effort at the 2021 Games in Tokyo. They did not surpass the Americans but still won nine gold medals (just behind 11 for the U.S.) and earned 21 podium finishes. Now, the Aussies head to Paris with the world’s dominant women’s team, led by Kaylee McKeown, Mollie O’Callaghan and Ariarne Titmus, and the Dolphins won four relay gold medals in Fukuoka, compared to only two for the Americans.
Expect plenty of head-to-head clashes between the two countries. Aside from the many relays where the U.S. and Australia are expected to finish 1-2 in some order, the Americans will try to overcome Aussie world champions Kyle Chalmers and Cameron McEvoy in the sprint events, with double Fukuoka silver medalist Jack Alexy and possibly the returning Caeleb Dressel in the driver’s seat. Bobby Finke and Sam Short will race in the distance events. On the women’s side, McKeown will try to hold off Regan Smith in the backstroke events and handle world champions Kate Douglass and Alex Walsh in the 200 IM. And Titmus vs. Katie Ledecky will never not be an outstanding matchup.
Get ready for an exciting year as these two national titans prepare for the showdown in Paris.
In other top storylines to watch…
Can China Maintain Momentum?
Qin Haiyang — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
A huge World Championships for China resulted in 16 medals, five of them gold, both the third-highest totals in the meet. China was led by Qin Haiyang, a breakout star who swept the men’s breaststroke events, and Zhang Yufei, who won three individual medals including gold in the 100 butterfly. Their combined firepower helped China to a dominant win in the mixed 400 medley relay.
Li Bingjie, Yu Yiting, Peng Xuwei and Xu Jiayu all won individual medals for Team China while Pan Zhanle just missed. China was the only country aside from the U.S. and Australia to win medals in more than two relays, capturing four total.
Will that trend continue for Paris? Stars plus depth in the women’s freestyle events plus a breakout men’s medley relay team, which almost broke the world record at the Asian Games this year, all provide a strong head start entering 2024.
Watch for Returning Stars
Four swimmers who captured Olympic gold at the Tokyo Games are still competing but were not present in Fukuoka: Caeleb Dressel, Kristof Milak, Adam Peaty and Evgeny Rylov. Dressel, Milak and Peaty are all on the comeback trail after various life events interrupted their swimming careers, but it would be no surprise if any of them make a significant impact on the results in Paris. Dressel has shown solid early-season results this year, but we have yet to see much from Peaty or Milak to indicate their form.
Certainly, swimming fans hope to see Dressel facing off with Kyle Chalmers, Cameron McEvoy and David Popovici in the sprint events while Peaty returning to full strength to race Qin Haiyang in the 100 breaststroke would bring fireworks. If he’s in top form, Milak is the world’s premier 200 butterflyer and a true gold-medal contender in the 100 fly. We can also add Australian sprinter Cate Campbell, seeking to qualify for her fifth Olympics, as a comeback swimmer who could make an impact.
As for Rylov, he and other Russian swimmers have a narrow road to qualifying for the Olympics as “individual neutral athletes.” Rylov is unlikely to be allowed, as he has expressed direct support for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, while fellow Tokyo medal-winner Kliment Kolesnikov said that he “cannot accept” the International Olympic Committee’s conditions for participation. It’s unclear what will happen with 200 breaststroke world-record holder Evgeniia Chikunova.
Who Will Be Top Female Performer?
Kaylee McKeown — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
An Australian swimmer has been named Female World Swimmer of the Year in three consecutive years, with Emma McKeon winning in 2021, Ariarne Titmus taking the honor in 2022 and Kaylee McKeown topping the list in 2023. And you could have made a really good argument for Titmus or McKeown winning in 2021 while 100 and 200 freestyle world champion Mollie O’Callaghan was a real threat for the top spot this year (before McKeown’s world-record spurt in October).
Who will be the consensus No. 1 one year from now? Anyone who wins multiple Olympic gold medals will be in the running, and three golds should slam the door shut. The swimmer best positioned for three are McKeown, who could win both backstroke events plus the 200 IM, or Canadian teenager Summer McIntosh, the two-time world champion in the 400 IM and 200 butterfly, the world-record holder in the 400 IM and former world-record holder in the 400 freestyle.
In addition, Titmus could repeat as Olympic champion in the 200 and 400 free while O’Callaghan could sweep the 100 and 200 while playing a key role on four Australian relays. Three Americans could join the conversation with outstanding meets: Katie Ledecky remains the heavy favorite in both the 800 and 1500 free and a serious medal contender in the 400 free while Regan Smith will battle McKeown for both backstroke gold medals while contending in the 200 fly. Kate Douglass was the world champion in the 200 IM this year and silver medalist in the 200 breaststroke while also playing a key relay role.
Marchand’s Crowning Moment?
Leon Marchand — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
All eyes will be on Leon Marchand as he prepares to race in a home-country Olympics. He is clearly established as the world’s best individual medley swimmer, with the world record in the 400 IM already in his pocket. He will be a clear favorite for gold in that event, and he’s the two-time world champion in the 200 IM. He will likely have to choose either the 200 fly or 200 breast in Paris, but he will contend for gold in either one. If Kristof Milak is less than 100%, Marchand would be the heavy favorite in the 200 fly, while he is capable of matching Qin Haiyang and Zac Stubblety-Cook in the 200 breast.
Marchand has stunned the world nearly every time he has raced at a championship meet over the past two years, whether that’s on the international level with his five individual world titles or at the NCAA Championships, where the short course format suits his skillset even better than long course. Marchand owns the fastest time ever in three yards events (200 IM, 400 IM, 200 breast) as well as the 50 and 100-yard breast for relay splits. He was the World Swimmer of the Year in 2023, the first Frenchman to ever capture the honor, and he could very well repeat next year.
Bonus: College Swimming
The focus will certainly be on the Olympic Games next year, but don’t forget about college action, where the University of Virginia is favored to win a fourth consecutive women’s national title while the Arizona State men, led by Leon Marchand and Hubert Kos, are a real threat to knock off two-time defending champion Cal and earn a national title. The team race and record-breaking at the men’s meet is worth a look from even those who are not familiar with yards times.
Later on in the year, we will get an early sense of how conference realignment will affect college swimming, with the Pac-12 breaking up and schools split among the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. However, it might not be until championship season in the winter of 2025 that we really can access the impact.