U.S. Nationals: A Chance to Gain Momentum For 2023; Is Katie Ledecky Positioned For Big 400 IM
The William Woollett Aquatic Center in Irvine, Calif., has played host to significant selection meets in 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018, but no qualification will be on the line at next week’s U.S. Nationals. Instead, with the World Championships already completed, top American swimmers will be looking to record impressive swims to set themselves up for 2023. Check out the psych sheet to see who will be racing at the meet.
A handful of Americans who competed in Budapest, including individual world champions Katie Ledecky and Bobby Finke, will be racing, but the meet will be of greater importance to those who did not compete at Worlds after either not qualifying for the team or skipping the International Team Trials in April. Here are a few of the top individual performers and events where the Irvine results will be under the microscope.
What can Katie Ledecky do in the 400 IM?
Back in 2016, Katie Ledecky was at the absolute peak of her powers, and she wound up becoming just the second woman to sweep Olympic gold medals in the 200, 400 and 800 freestyle, with the 400 and 800 both in world-record time. But on the day before the Olympic Trials began, the question on everyone’s mind in Omaha, Neb., was whether Ledecky would throw her hat in the ring for the 400 IM. Ledecky had swum as fast as 4:37.93 one month prior, and her endurance plus finishing freestyle speed made her a huge threat to make the Olympic team if she decided to compete in the event.
Ultimately, Ledecky skipped the IM and did not race on Day One of those 2016 Trials, and she has never raced the 400 IM at a major competition, although she did set a pair of American records in the 400-yard IM during her collegiate career at Stanford. But she is entered in the event at Nationals, and she will take on a field that includes veteran Leah Smith, a familiar competitor from mid-distance and distance freestyle and a past national champion in the 400 IM.
Ledecky’s best time this year is a 4:39.68 from a Sectionals meet in March. The bronze-medal winning time from the World Championships was Emma Weyant’s 4:36.00, and it would be no surprise to see Ledecky swim that fast or faster. Who knows if Ledecky will get another chance to swim a tapered 400 IM in her career, so with an impressive four-gold-medal performance World Championships already completed, enjoy this opportunity to watch one of the all-time greats swim an off-event that she is still really good at.
Opportunities Abound in Men’s Breaststroke
Michael Andrew — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
The top men’s breaststroker in the United States over the past year has been Nic Fink, who won gold in the 50 breast and bronze in the 100 breast at the World Championships, and he split 57s on a pair of medley relays at the World Championships. But Fink turned 29 earlier this month, and he admitted in an interview earlier this year that he’s not sure about his future in the sport. Fink won’t be in Irvine, but we’ll have a good chance to see what the other Americans will have in store.
Michael Andrew will compete in the 100 breast, where he is the third-fastest performer in history, but he missed out on the final in a surprising result in Budapest. His closest competition in the event will likely be Max McHugh, the NCAA champion in the 100-yard breast and one of just two men to ever swim under 50 seconds in the short course yards event. In long course, McHugh swam under 1:00 for the first time last year, but he did not compete at April’s Trials for the World Championships. In Irvine, can McHugh establish himself as a legitimate contender in long course?
The 200 breast will be missing the two swimmers who tied for the title at the International Team Trials, Fink and Charlie Swanson, so the top Americans in the race will be Will Licon, Matt Fallon and Jake Foster. Licon has been third in the 200 breast by extremely narrow margins at the last two Olympic Trials, but he was more than two seconds off Fink and Swanson’s pace in April. Fallon skipped the April meet, but the 19-year-old looked ready to step onto the big stage when he was the top seed in the event at Olympic Trials last year. And Foster broke 2:10 for the first time in April as he finished third. No American has won a long course international medal in the men’s 200 breast since Josh Prenot’s silver at the 2016 Olympics, so it’s worth watching to see if there is a breakout swim coming.
Worlds Standouts in Different Events
Shaine Casas — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
In his first appearance at a long course World Championships, Shaine Casas captured bronze in the 200 backstroke behind stalwarts Ryan Murphy and Luke Greenbank. But Casas will not be entered in any backstroke events in Irvine, with the 100 free, 100 fly and 200 IM on his plate. He swam 48.23 in the 100 free at a Sectionals meet in Austin earlier this month, and we’ll see if he can improve further on that time in Irvine to cement his status as a 400 free relay contender. He swam 50.56 in the 100 fly at those Sectionals to become the fourth-fastest American ever behind the decorated trio of Caeleb Dressel, Michael Phelps and Ian Crocker. His showdown with 2019 World Championships silver medalist and 100-yard fly NCAA champion Andrei Minakov could be one of the top head-to-head matchups of the week.
As for the 200 IM, Casas swam 1:56.70 in the event in early April at the TYR Pro Swim Series in San Antonio, and he finished just ahead of Leon Marchand, who went on to win the world title in the event. Casas skipped the event at the International Team Trials, but his talent and abilities in all four strokes suggest he has the potential for a potential special swim. If he has the energy left after a busy year of racing, 1:55 is not out of the question.
Also returning from Worlds will be Claire Curzan, who won bronze in the 100 back plus four relay medals in Budapest. She is slated to race the 50 free, 100 fly and 100 and 200 back in Irvine, and of most interest is that 200 back, which she skipped at the International Team Trials because of a schedule conflict with the 50 fly. Curzan is the sixth-fastest swimmer in the world this year in the 200 back, although three Americans (Phoebe Bacon, Rhyan White and Regan Smith) are ranked ahead of her.
Curzan told Swimming World recently, “I’d love to maybe do 200 back more. That’s probably one of my more-liked events.” She will have the opportunity in Irvine as she faces off with White and Isabelle Stadden, who was fourth at last year’s Olympic Trials and this year’s International Team Trials.
Finally, watch for what Justin Ress can do in the 100 free and 100 back as he returns from his breakout meet at the World Championships, where he swam on the finals quartet of the 400 free relay and then captured gold in the 50 back. In a dramatic turn of events, Ress was initially disqualified in the 50 back for completely submerging at the finish, but he was later reinstated as the world champion. In the two-lap backstroke race, he swam a mark of 52.73 at the International Team Trials, so let’s see if the 24-year-old can drop closer to the 52-low range that the best in the world, including countrymen Ryan Murphy and Hunter Armstrong, have shown off recently.
Others to Watch
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Gretchen Walsh at the NCAA Championships — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
Sprint freestyler Gretchen Walsh is looking to level up in long course after winning the NCAA title in the 100-yard free as well as finishing second in the 50-yard free and 100-yard back and contributing to four national-championship-winning relays for the University of Virginia in March. Walsh missed the World Championships team in the 50 free by a gut-wrenching one-hundredth in April, but she was almost two seconds off her best time in the 100 free at the International Team Trials as she ended up 22nd in prelims. Walsh swam as fast as 53.74 in winning the world junior title in the event in 2019, and her short course swimming has shown considerable improvement since then. She just needs to put it all together in the 50-meter course.
- Walsh is the younger sister of Alex Walsh, who captured the world title in the 200 IM last month. After Gretchen narrowly missed the World Championships team, Alex expressed confidence in her sister’s ability to bounce back quickly. “It’s really hard for me being an older sister and having to watch her go through two disappointing summers in a row. There’s nothing I really can say. The first thing I needed was give her a hug because that’s just what she needed,” Alex said. “I’m sure that she’s really gutted right now, and that’s really hard for me to watch as her little sister, but at the same time, I just feel so much confidence in her going into next year and the Olympic year right after.”
- Last year in Tokyo, Erica Sullivan was the Olympic silver medalist behind Ledecky in the 1500 free, but she did not compete at the International Team Trials after focusing on open water in the spring and then dealing with an injury from the open water national championships. The 21-year-old Sullivan made her return to national-level racing at the TYR Pro Swim Series in Mission Viejo in late May, although her times were well off her best, so we’ll see where she sits at the end of the summer in the 800 and 1500 free before she gears up for next season.
- Zach Apple was a relay standout at the Olympics as he anchored the U.S. men’s 400 free relay and 400 medley relay to gold, but he was well off his best at the International Team Trials. He topped out at eighth place in the 100 free to miss the Worlds team by less than two tenths. Three months later, can he approach his best form?
- In the women’s 200 free, watch out for Erin Gemmell, who missed the World Championships team in the 800 free relay by one spot but has been in the 1:57-mid range on multiple occasions this year. Gemmell is the younger sister of U.S. Olympian Andrew Gemmell and daughter of Nation’s Capital coach Bruce Gemmell, who coached Ledecky from 2012 through 2016, and Ledecky has been a friend and mentor to the younger Gemmell.
- The U.S. men recaptured gold at the World Championships in the 800 free relay, and two members of that title-winning quartet, Kieran Smith and Trenton Julian, are both slated to race in Irvine. But can anyone else establish themselves as potential contributors to that relay in the future? Grant House and Luke Hobson were both 1:46-high swimmers in April, while Georgia’s Jake Magahey (who skipped the April Trials) has a best time of 1:47.10. Patrick Callan, an Olympian last year as a relay alternate, was two seconds off his top speed earlier this year.
- As for the men’s 400 free, Smith will headline the field in Irvine, but after winning bronze at the Olympics, he was a disappointing seventh at Worlds. Magahey, the NCAA champion in the 500-yard free last year and the runnerup in 2022, is still looking for a long course breakout performance, while Jake Mitchell, who made the Olympics in the 400 free last year by virtue of a brilliant performance in a solo time trial in Omaha, will be back on the big stage after transferring to the University of Florida.
