U.S. Nationals Day One Predictions: Speed Needed to Maintain 400 Free Relay Winning Streak
The most consequential swim meet in the United States begins Tuesday in Indianapolis, with USA Swimming returning the annual event to the IUPUI Natatorium for the first time since 2017 while preparing for next year’s larger-scale Olympic Trials to take place a few blocks away at Lucas Oil Stadium. This year’s meet will serve as the qualifier for the World Championships in Fukuoka, Japan, with elite swimmers eager for international racing experience as a dress rehearsal for the Paris Olympics.
Six events are set for day one, with the women’s and men’s 200 butterfly, the women’s and men’s 100 freestyle, the women’s 800 freestyle and men’s 1500 freestyle. Fresh off an American record earlier this month, Regan Smith is the favorite in the women’s 200 fly while the American men are still looking for their first international medalist since Michael Phelps’ retirement in the men’s 200 fly. Reigning Olympic champions Katie Ledecky and Bobby Finke highlight their respective distance races.
The 100 free, meanwhile, has a little extra at stake with spots on the line for the 400 freestyle relays in Fukuoka. The American women have not captured a global title in the event since 2017, but the men have been golden at every major meet going back to the 2016 Olympics. That winning streak corresponds exactly to Caeleb Dressel’s tenure as the leadoff swimmer on this relay.
Dressel led off a team including Michael Phelps, Ryan Held and Nathan Adrian at the 2016 Olympics, and for most of the time since, he has been the world’s best 100 freestyler. On various first-place relays, Dressel has teamed with Townley Haas, Blake Pieroni, Zach Apple, Bowe Becker, Justin Ress and Brooks Curry in addition to return appearances by Adrian and Held.
But the past year has been a far different one for Dressel after he departed last year’s Worlds early with health concerns, took an extended break from training and only returned to competition in May. It’s unclear what to expect from Dressel at Nationals: he is unlikely to be close to his best times, but even a less-than-100% Dressel is a huge boost to American relays.
With or without Dressel, the Americans need some fast 100 free times to fill out a gold-medal-caliber relay. International rivals are looming: Australia has a mighty 1-2 punch with Kyle Chalmers and Flynn Southam, and Italy, Great Britain and other countries could pose a threat. The only swimmers in this year’s field to ever break 48 are Dressel, Curry and Held. Curry went 47.90 to sneak into the 100 free final at last year’s Worlds, but he has yet to record any scorching swims so far this year while Held has not broken the barrier since 2019.
Seventeen swimmers are listed on the psych sheet with entry times under 49.00, and it seems likely that Ress, Drew Kibler and Hunter Armstrong will be in the mix after qualifying for Worlds last year. Can the versatile Shaine Casas make a run in this race? Is Matt King capable of backing up his strong efforts from last year before missing most of the college season at the University of Virginia?
From the college ranks, Arizona State’s Jonny Kulow and Cal’s Jack Alexy were both impressive this year, and while Destin Lasco is known for his successes in the individual medley and backstroke events at the NCAA Championships, perhaps the 100 free is his ticket onto the international scene. And we cannot forget about teenager Kaii Winkler as a possibility as he has been on a run of National Age Group records this year. Can any of these men improve enough to provide a relay boost?
Day One Predictions:
Women’s 200 Butterfly
- Regan Smith
- Hali Flickinger
Men’s 200 Butterfly
- Carson Foster
- Gabriel Jett
Women’s 100 Freestyle
- Torri Huske
- Abbey Weitzeil
- Claire Curzan
- Gretchen Walsh
- Natalie Hinds
- Erika Brown
Men’s 100 Freestyle
- Ryan Held
- Brooks Curry
- Hunter Armstrong
- Caeleb Dressel
- Shaine Casas
- Jack Alexy
Women’s 800 Freestyle
- Katie Ledecky
- Katie Grimes
Men’s 1500 Freestyle
- Bobby Finke
- Will Gallant
“Great Britain could pose a threat”… whereas most people are saying that it’s between USA and GB for Gold!!
Not taking anything away from the Aussies, Kyle and Flynn did great times at their Trials, but the GB team have four guys who can hit a 47. from a flat start.
Should be a brilliant race in Japan, one of the highlights of the week.
The top 4 add up from Australian trials is faster than GB.
Chalmers – 47.44
Southam – 47.77
Cartwright – 48.21
Taylor – 48.41
= 3.11.83
Richards – 47.72
Burras – 47.99
Scott – 48.00
Dean – 48.32
=3:12.03
If you’re talking about PBs, then Australia also has four 47s and their advantage is even bigger.