U.S. Nationals Day Four Predictions: Lydia Jacoby Recapturing the Magic of Unlikely Gold-Medal Run
It was surely the biggest stunner of the Tokyo Olympics. Lilly King, undefeated in the women’s 100 breaststroke for almost six years and the world-record holder, was fading, her grasp on a second consecutive Olympic gold slipping away. South Africa’s Tatjana Schoenmaker, already one of the world’s premier 200 breaststrokers, was making a push, and so was Lydia Jacoby.
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Jacoby, 17, was the first-ever U.S. Olympic swimmer from Alaska, and she had been a virtual unknown internationally just four months earlier. If the Olympics had been held in 2020 as originally scheduled, Jacoby surely would not have qualified for the Olympics. But everything lined up perfectly for Jacoby to steal away the Olympic gold medal.
But one year later, Jacoby could not follow up her win with a return to the international level. At the 2022 U.S. International Team Trials, Jacoby missed qualifying for the World Championships team by nine hundredths. She would later describe the “pretty big burnout with swimming” that she dealt with during that season, but by that point, Jacoby’s talent and potential was undeniable. Indeed, a change of scenery and the beginning of her college career at the University of Texas have helped Jacoby recapture her old magic, including an NCAA title in the 100-yard breast in March.
Heading into Nationals, she is already the world’s third-fastest 100 breaststroker, having recorded a time of 1:05.84 that is her fastest since Tokyo. Not counting Evgeniia Chikunova’s world-leading time of 1:04.92 (since Russia remains banned from international competition), the 100 breast is a fairly weak event internationally right now. So far in 2023, only five others have broken 1:06 (the Netherlands’ Tes Schouten, Jacoby, Schoenmaker, Japan’s Reona Aoki and Sweden’s Sophie Hansson), and the winning time from last year’s Worlds was 1:05.93, almost a full second behind Jacoby’s top mark from Tokyo.
Based on her string of in-season performances, a time in the 1:05-low range (or perhaps faster) seems well within the range of possibility for Jacoby at U.S. Nationals. Her style is familiar by now: controlled on the first length before turning on the jets and running her competitors down on the final lap. Meanwhile, this will be the first time since 2015 that King will not enter a U.S. championship meet as the sole favorite in the 100 breast, but it would be foolish to discount a competitor with her credentials. King, now 26, owns a season-best mark of 1:06.28 that ranks among the world top-10.
It’s doubtful that any other American swimmer can get down into the 1:05-range this year. Annie Lazor, who took the second U.S. spot at Worlds last year, is entered in the meet, but she has already accepted an assistant coaching position at the University of Florida, so her swimming is a question mark. Kaitlyn Dobler should be in the mix, but she has not matched her 2022 results that included an NCAA title in the 100-yard breast.
We should consider Kate Douglass, the fastest swimmer ever in the 200-yard breast and the Worlds bronze medalist over 200 meters last year, as a potential spoiler, but expect this one to come down to Jacoby and King. And don’t be surprised if they emerge from Indianapolis as the two top swimmers in the world (excluding Chikunova) and set up a potential American gold medal in Fukuoka.
Men’s Backstroke Showdown
You can always expect a tight showdown in the men’s 100 backstroke at national-level meets, and last year’s International Team Trials were no different as four men broke the 53-second barrier. One day after a surprising world record in the 50 back, Hunter Armstrong got the win over then-world-record holder Ryan Murphy, with Justin Ress and Shaine Casas finishing third and fourth, respectively. As it turned out, at the 2022 World Championships, the U.S. captured six backstroke medals, the maximum possible total for one country, with each of those men contributing at least one.
Murphy lost his global standard in Budapest to Thomas Ceccon, but he swam his fastest time in four years in claiming silver in 51.97, with Armstrong just behind in 51.98. Whoever emerges from Indianapolis this year will once again be a medal favorite for Worlds, and in addition to last year’s quartet, don’t forget about teenager Daniel Diehl, who has been quickly converging on senior-level contention in the event. His current best is a 53.07 from last December’s U.S. Open. Could we be talking about five men in one race going under 53? That has never happened outside of international racing.
Day Four Predictions
Women’s 400 Freestyle
- Katie Ledecky
- Leah Smith
Ledecky is the heavy favorite while Smith will try to fend off the teenage trio of Katie Grimes, Bella Sims and Claire Weinstein plus Olympic finalist Paige Madden.
Men’s 400 Freestyle
- Kieran Smith
- Jake Mitchell
Jake Magahey and Ross Dant are also possibilities here, and we are guessing Carson Foster scratches this race.
Women’s 100 Breaststroke
- Lydia Jacoby
- Lilly King
Men’s 100 Breaststroke
- Nic Fink
- Michael Andrew
If these two can approach their best times, they should be well clear of the field.
Women’s 100 Backstroke
- Regan Smith
- Claire Curzan
Look for a tight battle for the No. 2 spot behind Smith, who could challenge the world record.
Men’s 100 Backstroke
- Hunter Armstrong
- Ryan Murphy
