U.S. Nationals Day Five Predictions: Katie Ledecky Returns to the Location of Her Most Recent World Records
In her illustrious swimming career, Katie Ledecky has broken 14 long course world records in the 400, 800 and 1500 freestyle. The best performance of her career came at the 2016 Olympics, when she crushed records in both the 400 and 800. Her 800 mark of 8:04.79 has never been threatened, while it took huge swims for Ariarne Titmus and then Summer McIntosh to surpass Ledecky’s 400 time of 3:56.46.
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Since Rio, however, Ledecky has only broken one long course world record, and that was the last time she raced a long course meet in Indianapolis. It was the May stop on the TYR Pro Swim Series, and Ledecky was less than two months removed from ending her college career at Stanford and turning professional. World records were not on anyone’s mind, but during the meet’s opening Wednesday afternoon session, Ledecky knocked five seconds off her previous world record in the 1500 free, touching in 15:20.48.
That was more than five years ago. Ledecky has appeared twice in short course meters meets in Indianapolis since then, an ISL meet in 2019 and a World Cup stop last November, and at that World Cup meet, she set another world record, beating Mireia Belmonte’s 800 free short course mark by two seconds. Going back even further, Ledecky qualified for her first World Championships team in 2013 at a selection meet in Indianapolis and then again in 2017.
Ledecky is entered in four events at this year’s Nationals, the 200, 400, 800 and 1500 free, and she is the heavy favorite in all of those races. In fact, no American has beaten Ledecky in any of those events in a decade. And however she performs compared to her own towering standards, her favorite status heading into next month’s World Championships will not be affected.
Ledecky will still be the big favorite for gold in the 1500 free and 800 free, the latter of which will be her chance to become the first-ever six-time world champion in swimming. She is headed for a titanic clash with Titmus and McIntosh in the 400 free, and Ledecky is sure to up her game against tough international competition. We’ll see if she opts to keep the individual 200 free on her schedule, but the American women’s hopes in the 800 free relay will be determined by the swimmers joining Ledecky on the squad. Ledecky always shows up for this relay, including her 1:53.67 split on last year’s world-title-winning relay.
This 26-year-old had already secured her legacy as one of the top female swimmers in history, and deservedly so. During her teenage years, she crushed the limits of what was considered possible in her best events and flexed her dominance upon the rest of the world. But what’s most unprecedented about her résumé is the consistency she has shown: year after year, she finds a way to remain at the top of her game. Even as her competitors have caught up in the shorter events, Ledecky remains very much in the mix, and no one has bridged the gap over the longer races.
Her races might lack drama, particularly in domestic competition, but don’t take the greatness of Katie Ledecky for granted.
Women’s 200 IM: Race of the Meet?
This one could be a special with Alex Walsh, Kate Douglass, Regan Smith and Leah Hayes battling for two spots, with Torri Huske as a potential spoiler. Walsh is the reigning world champion in this event, with a best time of 2:07.13 that is far ahead of anyone else in the field, while Hayes joined her on the World Championships podium last year.
Douglass is returning to the 200 IM after winning Olympic bronze in 2021 and then swimming the fastest time ever in the 200-yard IM by almost two seconds earlier this year, handily defeating Walsh in the process. Smith’s entry into the individual medley race has been unexpected, but her improving breaststroke alongside her elite other strokes has helped her reach 2:08 territory this year. And Huske edged out Walsh for second in the 200-yard IM at the NCAA Championships, surpassing the previous all-time best mark.
Walsh remains the favorite here, but this one could unfold in a lot of different ways? Can Douglass translate her short course success in the medley to long course? Does the 17-year-old Hayes have another big leap in the works after cutting more than two seconds last year? Smith will surely be in the lead at the halfway point, but can she hang tough on breaststroke? Don’t look away during this final.
Day Five Predictions:
Women’s 1500 Freestyle
- Katie Ledecky
- Katie Grimes
Women’s 200 IM
- Alex Walsh
- Regan Smith
The guess is that Smith swims the race, but she may face a tough decision on her World Championships lineup with a schedule conflict with the 100 backstroke looming.
Men’s 200 IM
- Carson Foster
- Shaine Casas
This should be a three-man race with Chase Kalisz also contending.
Men’s 800 Freestyle
- Bobby Finke
- David Johnston
Women’s 50 Freestyle
- Gretchen Walsh
- Abbey Weitzeil
A lot of possibilities for the two spots here. Erika Brown tied for bronze at last year’s Worlds.
Men’s 50 Freestyle
- Caeleb Dressel
- Michael Andrew
