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Tokyo Olympic Predictions: Day One Suggests Strong Showing For Australia; Daiya Seto Favored in 400 IM
The world can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel: the COVID-19-delayed Olympics of 2020 are now less than a week away, set to begin with the Opening Ceremony on Friday, July 23 in Tokyo. And now it’s time to see who might win medals in the 35 swimming events—three more than in 2016, with the debut of the women’s 1500 freestyle, men’s 800 freestyle and the mixed 4×100 medley relay. Here is Swimming World’s Day One analysis.
Editor’s Note: Tokyo is 13 hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time (e.g., New York) and 16 hours ahead of Pacific Daylight Time (e.g., Los Angeles). This year’s Olympic finals (and semifinals) will be swum at Tokyo in the morning, with prelims swum the previous evening. So, for a finals session beginning at 10:30 a.m. Japan Standard Time on Sunday morning, July 25, that would be 9:30 p.m. EDT (6:30 p.m. PDT) on Saturday evening, July 24.
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Day One Finals
Sunday, July 25
(10:30 a.m. – 12:20 p.m. Japan Standard Time)
Men’s 400 Individual Medley
World Record: 4:03.84 – Michael Phelps, USA – Beijing 8-10-08
2016 Olympic Champion: Kosuke Hagino, Japan – 4:06.05
Although reigning Olympic champion Kosuke Hagino opted to not defend his title, Japan is well-positioned to thrill the home crowd in the opening event of the Games. Daiya Seto has won three of the past four world titles and has been a consistent power in the event for nearly a decade. Seto was automatically named to the Japanese squad in the event.
Chase Kalisz. Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
En route to victory at the United States Trials, Chase Kalisz inched closer to the level that made him the 2017 world champion. The silver medalist at the 2016 Olympics, Kalisz cracked the 4:10 barrier at Trials and figures to drop time in Tokyo. European champion and world junior record holder Ilya Borodin of Russia was expected to contend, but a positive COVID-19 test caused his withdrawal from the Games.
France’s Leon Marchand recently went sub-4:10 and is a rising force, while American Jay Litherland can contend for the podium if he is within striking distance heading into the freestyle leg. New Zealand’s Lewis Clareburt is also a threat.
Predictions
Gold: Daiya Seto, Japan
Silver: Chase Kalisz, United States
Bronze: Lewis Clareburt, New Zealand
Men’s 400 Freestyle
World Record: 3:40.07 – Paul Biedermann, Germany – Rome 7-26-09
2016 Olympic Champion: Mack Horton, Australia – 3:41.55
The field in the men’s 400 freestyle will look quite a bit different at this Olympiad. Defending champion Mack Horton of Australia missed out on qualifying after not finishing in the top two at the Australian Trials. Meanwhile, silver medalist Sun Yang of China has been suspended for doping violations and is ineligible to compete in Tokyo. So, we can expect a new champion and a whole slew of contenders.
Photo Courtesy: Nina Beilby
Australia’s two qualifiers, Elijah Winnington (3:42.65) and Jack McLoughlin (3:43.27), will arrive in Tokyo with the world’s top two times of 2021. Russia’s Martin Malyutin has put together some solid swims, including a 3:44.18, while Germany’s distance specialist Florian Wellbrock has been as fast as 3:44.35. Austria’s Felix Aubock, an NCAA champion in the 1650 free, has been at 3:44.51.
Meanwhile, Italy’s Gabriel Detti won the bronze in 2016 and could definitely be a factor.
Predictions
Gold: Elijah Winnington, Australia
Silver: Martin Malyutin, Russia
Bronze: Jack McLoughlin, Australia
Women’s 400 Individual Medley
World Record and 2016 Olympic Champion: Katinka Hosszu, Hungary—Rio de Janeiro (8-6-16) – 4:26.36
Photo Courtesy: Mine Kasapoglu / ISL
It doesn’t seem that long ago that Hungary’s Katinka Hosszu was viewed as unbeatable in the 400 IM. In Rio at age 27, she dominated the race by nearly five seconds, winning her first Olympic gold medal and destroying all the records in the process.
She went on to win the event at the next two World Championships in 2017 and 2019, but currently, she has only has the fifth fastest time in the world behind four Americans. Nineteen-year-old Emma Weyant and 26-year-old Hali Flickinger will represent the United States in an event the country has not won since Janet Evans in 1988.
Japan’s Yui Ohashi, who had the fastest global time in 2018, will have the eyes of the nation on her (even though spectators will not be permitted) to win Japan’s second medal in the 400 IM since Yasuko Tajima’s silver in 2000.
Predictions
Gold: Katinka Hosszu, Hungary
Silver: Yui Ohashi, Japan
Bronze: Hali Flickinger, United States
Women’s 400 Freestyle Relay
World Record: Australia (Shayna Jack, Bronte Campbell, Emma McKeon, Cate Campbell) – Gold Coast (4-5-18) – 3:30.05
2016 Olympic Champion: Australia (Brittany Elmslie, Bronte Campbell, Cate Campbell, Emma McKeon) – 3:30.65
Photo Courtesy:
Four Australian women swam under 53 seconds in the 100 free at the country’s Olympic Trials in June, making Australia the overwhelming favorite to win a third straight Olympic gold medal in the sprint relay. Emma McKeon has been as fast as 52.19 this year, making her the fourth-fastest performer in history, while Cate Campbell is one of the best relay swimmers in history. Madison Wilson and Meg Harris are the other two likely participants, and 2015 world champion Bronte Campbell (Cate’s sister) could also be a factor.
The Americans had no one break 53.5 at their Trials, but the group of 2016 Olympian Abbey Weitzeil, Erika Brown, Olivia Smoliga and Natalie Hinds should be able to uncork several 52-second relay splits with the advantage of relay exchanges, and swimmers such as Simone Manuel and Torri Huske might be added to the mix despite not qualifying for this relay.
Canada, which should battle for bronze with the Netherlands and Great Britain, will rely on defending 100 free co-gold medalist Penny Oleksiak, but Taylor Ruck will need to be closer to her best after a disappointing performance at Canada’s Trials.
Predictions
Gold: Australia
Silver: United States
Bronze: Canada
