Record Watch: Which World Records Will Fall Next After Fukuoka?

Kaylee Mckeown of Australia reacts after winning the gold medal in the 100m Backstroke Women Final during the 20th World Aquatics Championships at the Marine Messe Hall A in Fukuoka (Japan), July 25th, 2023.
Australia's Kaylee McKeown -- Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto

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Record Watch: Which World Records Will Fall Next After Fukuoka?

Nine world records went down at the recent World Championships, beginning with Ariarne Titmus spoiling a long-anticipated three-way showdown in the women’s 400 freestyle and running away from the field as well as Leon Marchand’s takedown of Michael Phelps’ 15-year-old mark in the men’s 400 IM. Over the course of the week, Mollie O’Callaghan (women’s 200 freestyle), Qin Haiyang (men’s 200 breaststroke), Sarah Sjostrom (women’s 50 freestyle) and Ruta Meilutyte (women’s 50 breaststroke) would set individual marks while Australia lowered three freestyle relay standards.

We knew that Marchand had a very good chance at knocking Phelps from the record books, particularly after the young Frenchman swam the second-fastest time in history last year. The records in the women’s 400 free, men’s 200 breast and women’s 800 free relay were all set since the start of 2022, making them clear targets to go down, and the strength of Australian women’s freestyle made the times in the women’s and mixed 400 free relays not all that surprising.

Perhaps we should have foreseen that Federica Pellegrini’s 200 free mark was in trouble, but that record from the polyurethane-suit era withstood so many challenges over the years, including from Titmus on her way to Olympic gold. Credit O’Callaghan for getting the job done at last in Fukuoka. And Sjostrom breaking a world record at age 29, 14 years after her first record-setting swim at the World Championships? Respect.

Prior to Worlds, we highlighted seven records set in 2021 or earlier as ripe for a challenge, but the men’s 400 IM was the only one of those marks reset. So how about the others? Are the remaining six marks still in trouble over the next year leading into the Paris Olympics? Let’s assess the chances of these records going down on a scale from one to five, with one meaning no shot and five meaning definitely.

Women’s 100 Butterfly: 3

zhang-yufei-china-2023-world-championships

Zhang Yufei — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto

A showdown between China’s Zhang Yufei, Canada’s Maggie Mac Neil, the United States’ Torri Huske and Australia’s Emma McKeon lived up to its incredible racing potential as Zhang won gold in 56.12, the medalists separated by less than a half-second, but none of the contenders approached their best times in Fukuoka, let alone Sjostrom’s world record of 55.48, which has now lasted for seven years. Remember, all of these women have been 55.7 or quicker in their careers.

No one else cracked 57 in the Worlds final, so expect these women to be battling it out again for Olympic gold next year, with Sjostrom possibly in the mix as she has hinted at a return to her one-time signature event in time for her fifth Olympics. The record is definitely within reach, but we will need to see more after a relatively slow final in Fukuoka before we predict its demise.


Men’s 200 Freestyle: 1

In a stunning finish, the British duo of Matt Richards and Tom Dean went 1-2 in this event at the World Championships, with Hwang Sunwoo taking bronze while defending champion David Popovici faded out of medal contention. This was the same Popovici who became the only man in history to break 1:43 in a textile suit last year, bringing Paul Biedermann’s suit-era record of 1:42.00 into play. Two days later, Popovici ended up missing a medal in the 100 free as well.

Did Popovici suddenly lose his abilities? Doubtful. More likely, this was a one-year blip, a one-meet blip even, and he will be back contending for titles next year. But even if he returns to his best, there’s still almost a second to go down to Biedermann’s mark, so breaking that record looks doubtful for next year.


Women’s 100 Backstroke: 5

It’s surprising that Kaylee McKeown’s world mark of 57.45 has survived since Australia’s Olympic Trials in 2021, with both McKeown and Regan Smith nipping at that mark on multiple occasions. McKeown edged out Smith in all three backstroke races in Fukuoka, with neither hitting their best times in any of the events except the 50-meter race. McKeown won the 100 back 57.53 to 57.78, but Smith came back later to beat McKeown head-to-head leading off the 400 medley relay. Despite the results in Fukuoka, smart money still says that both swimmers go under 57.45 at points during the next year, likely before they face off again in Paris.


Men’s 1500 Freestyle: 4

Ahmed Hafnaoui of Tunisia celebrates after winning the gold medal in the 800m Freestyle Men Final during the 20th World Aquatics Championships at the Marine Messe Hall A in Fukuoka (Japan), July 26th, 2023.

Ahmed Hafnaoui — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto

If anything, confidence that Sun Yang’s world record in the 30-lap race is living on borrowed time went up at Worlds after Ahmed Hafnaoui and Bobby Finke went head-to-head down to the final strokes and nearly knocked off the 11-year-old time of 14:31.04. Both men had established reputations as closing-speed specialists in previous championship efforts, and nothing could split the two men as they raced down the stretch with gold on the mind. At the touch, the margin came down to five hundredths as Hafnaoui touched in 14:31.54, with Finke five hundredths behind in 14:31.59.

Both times were more than a second under the previous No. 2 time in history, Gregorio Paltrinieri’s 14:32.80 from the 2022 Worlds. The half-second margin behind the world record is tiny in a race as long as the 1500, and others have been knocking on the door of that time as well, with Florian Wellbrock and Dan Wiffen hitting 14:34s earlier in the year. If a few of these guys can set an electric pace in the Olympic final like the one Hafnaoui and Finke held in Fukuoka, another run at this record is likely.


Women’s 800 Freestyle: 2

The idea that Katie Ledecky could lower one of her own distance freestyle world records is not out of the question after a brilliant summer of racing in those two events, including times of 8:07.07 in the 800 free (at U.S. Nationals) and 15:26.27 in the 1500 (at Worlds). Both marks rank as the third-quickest performances in history, with no other swimmers having ever posted times anywhere close to these efforts. If Ledecky was going to break one of her own records, the 800 looked like a stronger bet after Nationals, but now we’re leaning 1500 after she swam within six seconds of her best time at Worlds before earning consecutive gold medal No. 6 in the 800. Remember, the 30-lap race will come before the 800 in the program at the Olympics. Still a long shot, but never count out Ledecky.


Men’s 800 Freestyle Relay: 5

Here’s another record we cannot see surviving past Paris. The British team of Dean, James Guy, Richards and Duncan Scott were only three hundredths off the world record on the way to Olympic gold two years ago, and the same quartet swam just a half-second slower in a world-title-winning effort in Fukuoka. A few slight improvements, such as Richards matching the form that made him 200 free world champion this year, would put Britain under the 6:58.55 that the U.S. men set at the 2009 Worlds in Rome. And the U.S. men have a very real chance of swimming quicker than the existing record as well, with Luke Hobson now the top performer in the country after breaking 1:45 for the first time in Fukuoka and Kieran Smith and Carson Foster consistently strong for the Americans in this relay.

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jpm49
jpm49
11 months ago

And Summer McIntosh with the WR 200 QNI whenever she wants…

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