Paris Olympics: United States Needs Momentum, Upsets to Overtake Australia in Gold-Medal Standings
By the conclusion of the Olympic swimming competition, the United States will at least approach the 30-medal threshold, which has been the minimum standard for the team in the last five Games. Three new events first included in the program in 2021 have surely helped maintain that level, with the U.S. already scoring gold in the women’s 1500 freestyle and silver in the men’s 800 freestyle and favored to at least win a medal in the mixed 400 medley relay.
Over the next few days, the Americans should reach the podium in all four remaining relays, while Katie Ledecky remains favored in the 800 free. Kate Douglass and Regan Smith are likely podium finishers in both their remaining individual events, while Bobby Finke is a heavy medal favorite in the 1500 free. That’s 27 widely expected medals, with further chances in the women’s 200 back and 50 free, men’s 100 fly and 200 IM and other races.
The U.S. team has dealt with some unexpected and disappointing qualifying swims, and recent days have seen medal favorites such as Matt Fallon (tied for 10th in the 200 breast) and Ryan Murphy (10th in the 200 back) miss out while early indications show Caeleb Dressel could be in trouble in the 50 free.
Still, the Americans will cruise to the top of the overall medal count; the tally in the all-important golden category is far less pleasing. There have only been three so far, with the U.S. men pulling away in the 400 free relay, Torri Huske leading a 1-2 finish in the 100 fly and Katie Ledecky dominating the 1500 free, as expected.
Australia is currently ahead with four golds: Ariarne Titmus in the 400 free, the women’s 400 free relay, Mollie O’Callaghan in the women’s 200 free and a head-to-head triumph in the 100 back, considered a swing race entering the Games, with Kaylee McKeown taking down Smith. One race after McKeown overtook Smith, Finke blasted his usual finishing kick but finished just off the pace of Irish rival Dan Wiffen in the 800 free.
A gold medal in the 400 free relay was the highlight of the Olympics thus far for the U.S. men — Photo Courtesy: Giorgio Scala / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
Sure, you can argue having three gold medals and eight silver indicates some measure of bad luck — but that was the case at last year’s World Championships as well, with the Americans winning a whopping 20 silver medals but just seven gold. The developing pattern is clear.
Australia has many gold-medal chances remaining, with McKeown favored or co-favored in two races and the women’s 800 free relay team expected to dominate. The Aussies have yet to win a men’s event, but Cameron McEvoy is favored in the 50 free. Just past the halfway point of the swimming competition, the Dolphins have positioned themselves to claim victory in the gold-medal category for the second consecutive major meet.
Before last year’s Worlds in Fukuoka, the Aussies had not exceeded the Americans’ tally of golds in 22 years, and that span included some major disappointments, with the Aussies winning just one gold medal at the 2012 London Games and only three four years later in Rio de Janeiro.
The Australians took the opportunity to revel in their success, deservedly so, while the Americans licked their wounds, plotting a comeback story for the Paris Games. The Worlds were just a rehearsal, the message went. Wait until next year.
It’s next year, and Australia is still looking like the clubhouse leader, although there is still the back half of the meet to fully sort things out.
Would this be a true victory even if the United States win more medals? Undoubtedly, there will be significant disagreements between the American and Aussie perspectives, with the NBC Sports broadcast and Channel Nine broadcasts likely to show a discrepancy if such a scenario plays out. In order to best judge a team’s strength, perhaps the best system would be weighted, awarding five points for gold, three for silver and one for bronze. That calculus would give the Stars and Stripes a slight 45-to-36 edge after Wednesday’s finals.
Alas, such nuanced evaluation will not transpire at the conclusion of the week in Paris. The gold-medal count will remain the supreme indicator of team success, and thanks to the highly-performing Aussies and widespread global depth resulting in more countries than ever winning Olympic gold in swimming, the United States could finish with a single-digit gold-medal tally for the first time since 1988.
If the Americans want to prevent Australia from claiming victory in Paris, they will need swimmers to win close races. Some heavy American favorites remain still to swim; Ledecky was such a favorite in the 1500 free Wednesday, or the U.S. women should be well ahead in the 400 medley relay Sunday, but those wins will not be sufficient to out-perform Australia. The team needs momentum.
Medal favorites considered fringe contenders for gold need to score a minor upset, provide a spark. Think about what Huske did Wednesday evening in the 100 free, dropping six tenths from her best time to win silver from an outside lane. More swims like that, and the gold medals will come.
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Aussie Aussie Aussie – come get us USA!!! The Aussies have the swim meet in the bag!!!!!