Olympic Swimming Top Races, No. 1: Pan Zhanle, David Popovici Lead Scintillating Showdown in 100 Freestyle
The Olympic swimming competition will begin Saturday, July 27, with the best swimmers in the world competing for medals in 28 individual races and seven relays over nine days of competition. Before that, Swimming World will count down the top-10 most anticipated races of the Games, where we can expect to find the best races and where the most decorated athletes will be racing for history.
- No. 10: Women’s 100 Butterfly
- No. 9: Men’s 400 Freestyle
- No. 8: Men’s 200 Butterfly
- No. 7: Men’s 100 Backstroke
- No. 6: Women’s 200 IM
- No. 5: Men’s 100 Butterfly
- No. 4: Women’s 800 Freestyle
- No. 3: Men’s 100 Breaststroke
- No. 2: Women’s 100 & 200 Backstroke
In an Olympic final of the men’s 100 freestyle, expect a dramatic finish. That has been the reality for decades, most recently with Caeleb Dressel holding off Kyle Chalmers by just six hundredths for gold in Tokyo. Five years earlier, Chalmers had been a little-known 18-year-old when he stormed past a veteran field to claim gold.
In 2012, there was Nathan Adrian’s upset win over James Magnussen. In 2008, Eamon Sullivan set the world record in the semifinal, only for Alain Bernard to come back and beat him in the final. In 2004, Pieter van den Hoogenband overtook Roland Schoeman to win by four hundredths. The Flying Dutchman had won four years earlier in a relatively drama-free final, but that was only after Michael Klim broke the world record on a relay leadoff and then van den Hoogenband became the first man ever under 48 in the semifinal. And going as far back as 1996, Alexander Popov beat Gary Hall Jr. by seven hundredths for gold.
Yes, this year’s race will be close as well and likely the fastest field ever. In Tokyo, Dressel and Chalmers were both in pursuit of the world record, the 46.91 that Cesar Cielo set during the polyurethane-suit era of 2009. They finished marginally short, but since then, David Popovici and Pan Zhanle have revolutionized the event.
David Popovici — Photo Courtesy: European Aquatics
Popovici first broke the world record at the 2022 European Championships, clocking 46.86. Pan joined the 46 club late last year, and then at the Doha World Championships this February, he swam 46.80 leading off China’s 400 freestyle relay. Popovici struggled mightily in the year after his world record, missing the podium entirely at the 2023 Worlds, but he seems to be rounding back into form. He clocked 46.88 at the recent European Championships, two hundredths behind his best time and eight shy of Pan’s world record.
These 19-year-olds are expected to meet in the Paris final with both swimming as fast as they ever have. Both have early speed and 200-meter abilities that allow them to maintain their pace through the closing stages. They could bring the global mark even faster.
But their competition for gold will be plentiful, beginning with Chalmers. The Australian, now 26 years old, won the first long course world title of his career last year with a time of 47.15. Back spasms hampered his swimming at Australia’s Olympic Trials, but he has a very good chance of reaching the podium for the third consecutive Games.
Dressel did not qualify to swim the individual race at the Games thanks to the efforts of Jack Alexy and Chris Guiliano at the U.S. Olympic Trials. Alexy, who broke out with a stunning silver in the 100 free at last year’s Worlds, clocked 47.08 in prelims at the selection meet, while Guiliano went 47.25 in the semifinals before taking the win in the final. Either one could win a medal in this event in Paris, and although Guiliano qualified for the 50, 100 and 200-meter races, this is his best shot at a top-three finish.
Maxime Grousset, who won silver at Worlds in 2022 and bronze last year, clocked 47.33 at France’s selection meet, and he will have plenty of home-crowd support. But for Grousset and Canada’s Josh Liendo, has been 47.55 this year, the depth of this event makes the 100 fly a better shot at a medal. Italy’s Alessandro Miressi and Hungary’s Nandor Nemeth joined Pan on the podium earlier this year at the Doha Worlds, and both have become frequent international finalists in recent years, while Great Britain’s Matt Richards, the world champion in the 200 free, should have plenty of closing speed.
This will be another fascinating race. Sentimental favourite for me is Chalmers. But I’ll be happy if he takes Bronze and ends his career with the full set of 100m medals! My hopes rest with the young Romanian Popovici. I hope he not only wins but breaks the WR. Also taking out the 200m Freestyle in a WR too!
What about women’s 400free? Three women who have held the WR and the SCM WR holder in the same race!
Pan will win it with the WR.