Olympic Swimming Predictions, Day 1: Ariarne Titmus Favored in Loaded 400 Freestyle
After one hundred years, the world’s premier sporting event returns to Paris. The 2024 Summer Olympics will begin July 26, and there will be 329 events in 32 sports, with roughly 10,500 athletes from 184 countries. This year’s Games mark the third time that Paris will have hosted the event, becoming only the second city to do so. Swimming’s 35 pool events will begin on Saturday, July 27, and will continue for nine days through Aug. 4 at the Paris La Défense Arena. Following is how Swimming World sees the action unfolding.
MEN’S 400 FREESTYLE
The race is on to become the first man ever under 3:40, and it might take such a performance to win the first Olympic gold medal in Paris. At last year’s World Championships, Australia’s Sam Short and Tunisia’s Ahmed Hafnaoui both broke into the 3:40-range as their dual for gold came down to the wire, and earlier this year, Germany’s Lukas Martens nearly broke the world record with his time of 3:40.33. The global mark has belonged to Paul Biedermann at 3:40.07 since 2009.
Hafnaoui will not compete at the Olympics, but we should expect Short, Martens and the other two men who won world titles since the Tokyo Games, Australia’s Elijah Winnington and South Korea’s Kim Woo-min, to be the main contenders, with Brazil’s Guilherme Costa, Germany’s Oliver Klemet and Austria’s Felix Aubock in the mix.
World Record: 3:40.07 Paul Biedermann, GER (Rome 7-26-09)
2024 World Rankings:
3:40.33 1. Lukas Martens, GER (4-25)
3:41.41 2. Elijah Winnington, AUS (4-17)
3:41.64 3. Sam Short, AUS (4-17)
3:42.42 4. Kim Woo-min, KOR (6-1)
3:42.81 5. Oliver Klemet, GER (4-19)
Team USA:
3:45.46 9. Aaron Shackell (6-15)
3:45.76 13. Kieran Smith (6-15)
Gold: Sam Short, Australia
Silver: Lukas Martens, Germany
Bronze: Elijah Winnington, Australia
WOMEN’S 400 FREESTYLE
An epic race between Ariarne Titmus, Summer McIntosh and Katie Ledecky at last year’s World Championships did not materialize as Titmus crushed the field by three seconds and became the first woman ever to break 3:56. Titmus will try to become only the second Australian female to repeat as an Olympic champion in swimming, joining Dawn Fraser (100 freestyle in 1956, 1960 and 1964).
Titmus nearly broke her own global mark at Australia’s Olympic Trials as she reaffirmed her status as favorite, but we can expect McIntosh and Ledecky to each bring their best swims in the Olympic final. Erika Fairweather broke 4:00 for the first time in last year’s Worlds final and won gold at the lightly-attended global meet at Doha in February. Short course world-record holder Li Bingjie could play spoiler.
World Record: 3:55.38 Ariarne Titmus, AUS (Fukuoka 7-23-23)
2024 World Rankings:
3:55.44 1. Ariarne Titmus, AUS (6-10)
3:59.06 3. Summer McIntosh, CAN (5-13)
3:59.44 4. Erika Fairweather, NZL (2-11)
4:01.62 5. Li Bingjie, CHN (2-11)
4:01.75 6. Lani Pallister, AUS (4-19)
Team USA:
3:58.35 2. Katie Ledecky (6-15)
4:02.08 7. Paige Madden (6-15)
Gold: Ariarne Titmus, Australia
Silver: Summer McIntosh, Canada
Bronze: Katie Ledecky, USA
WOMEN’S 400 FREESTYLE RELAY
Australia is going for a fourth consecutive Olympic gold in this event, with two-time 100 free world champion Mollie O’Callaghan leading the way. Veteran Cate Campbell just missed qualifying for her fifth Olympic team, but the other three swimmers from the Tokyo final — Emma McKeon, Meg Harris and Bronte Campbell — are all back alongside Shayna Jack, who missed Tokyo due to a doping suspension, but is the 10th-fastest swimmer ever in the event.
The United States could keep it close, though, with 2016 Olympic champion Simone Manuel returning to form, while Kate Douglass, Torri Huske and Gretchen Walsh have all emerged as forces in this event. China will be led by Yang Junxuan and Zhang Yufei while aiming for the country’s first medal in this event since 1996. Meanwhile, Penny Oleksiak will try to lead Canada to the podium for the third consecutive Games.
World Record: 3:27.96 Australia (Fukuoka 7-23-23)
Mollie O’Callaghan 52.08, Shayna Jack 51.69, Meg Harris 52.29, Emma McKeon 51.90
Gold: Australia
Silver: United States
Bronze: China
MEN’S 400 FREESTYLE RELAY
The U.S. men will try to make it three-in-a-row as Caeleb Dressel makes his Olympic return after an eight-month hiatus from the sport and not competing internationally for more than two years. Dressel is no longer the clear-cut top American swimmer in the 100 free, thanks to the emergence of Jack Alexy and Chris Guiliano, while all six American relay qualifiers went sub-48 at the U.S. Olympic Trials.
The path to gold will not be easy, though, as Kyle Chalmers anchors for 2023 world champion Australia, while China has depth surrounding 100 free world record holder Pan Zhanle. Italy is led by Alessandro Miressi, and France’s team features Maxime Grousset. Great Britain has three veterans capable of 47s: Matt Richards, Duncan Scott and Tom Dean.
World Record: 3:08.24 United States (Beijing 8-11-08)
Michael Phelps 47.51, Garrett Weber-Gale 47.02, Cullen Jones 47.65, Jason Lezak 46.06
Gold: United States
Silver: Great Britain
Bronze: Australia
My predictions:-
Men 4x100m freestyle relay:
1. Gold – China (Doha world champion)
2. Silver – USA
3. Bronze – Australia or Italy
Women 4×100 freestyle relay:
1. Gold – Australia ( world record holder )
2. Silver – China
3. Bronze – USA
PED’s athletes from Dictatorship China hopefully NO medals. That’d certainly be a deserved kick to their Propaganda Privates!
As to the 4×100m Freestyle Relay I want to see Anyone (except systemic drug cheating China) break the Supersuit WR!
As to the other predictions. I heartily agree. But would love to see NZ’s Fairweather minor medal in the Women’s 400m Freestyle.