Olympic Swimming Predictions, Day 9: United States Hoping to Finish With Medley Relay Victories
After one hundred years, the world’s premier sporting event returns to Paris. The 2024 Summer Olympics will begin July 26, and there will be 329 events in 32 sports, with roughly 10,500 athletes from 184 countries. This year’s Games mark the third time that Paris will have hosted the event, becoming only the second city to do so. Swimming’s 35 pool events will begin on Saturday, July 27, and will continue for nine days through Aug. 4 at the Paris La Défense Arena. Following is how Swimming World sees the action unfolding.
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WOMEN’S 50 FREESTYLE
Sarah Sjostrom — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
Sweden’s Sarah Sjostrom is the big favorite to win gold here after lowering her world record to 23.61 at last year’s World Championships and coming close to that mark with a 23.69 at February’s global meet in Doha. Sjostrom’s best time is more than 3-tenths better than anyone else in the field, with Aussies Emma McKeon and Cate Campbell having not qualified for the event. American Kate Douglass, who went 23.91 at Worlds in February, skipped the race at the U.S. Olympic Trials to focus on the 200 IM.
The only others in the field who have ever gone sub-24 are Poland’s Kasia Wasick, Australia’s Shayna Jack and the United States’ Simone Manuel, although Manuel’s top swim came seven years ago. Manuel’s American teammate Gretchen Walsh has the speed to pull off a medal here, and so does Australia’s Meg Harris and the Chinese duo of Zhang Yufei and Wu Qingfeng.
World Record: 23.61sf Sarah Sjostrom, SWE (Fukuoka 7-30-23)
2024 World Rankings:
23.69 1. Sarah Sjostrom, SWE (2-18)
23.95 3. Katarzyna Wasick, POL (2-18)
23.99 4. Shayna Jack, AUS (6-15)
24.22 8. Wu Qingfeng, CHN (4-27)
24.26 9. Meg Harris, AUS (6-15)
Team USA:
24.06 5. Gretchen Walsh, USA (6-22)
24.13 7. Simone Manuel (6-23)
Gold: Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden
Silver: Shayna Jack, Australia
Bronze: Kasia Wasick, Poland
MEN’S 1500 FREESTYLE
Tunisia’s Ahmed Hafnaoui and the United States’ Bobby Finke engaged in an epic duel for gold at last year’s World Championships, with the two men finishing only 5-hundredths apart and swimming the second- and third-fastest times ever, respectively. But Hafnaoui will not compete in Paris, so Finke is the slight favorite to defend the gold medal he won in Tokyo.
However, Ireland’s Dan Wiffen, fresh off a world title earlier this year and a time of 14:34.07 that moved him to No. 5 all-time, will be very tough here. Australia’s Sam Short won bronze at last year’s Worlds, while the veteran trio of Florian Wellbrock, Mykhailo Romanchuk and Gregorio Paltrinieri will surely have a say in the final result. France could also have a medal hope in this event from David Aubry.
World Record: 14:31.02 Sun Yang, CHN (London 8-4-12)
2024 World Rankings:
14:34.07 1. Dan Wiffen, IRL (2-18)
14:42.28 3. Florian Wellbrock, GER (4-28)
14:44.85 4. David Aubry, FRA (2-18)
14:46.44 5. David Bethlehem, HUN (2-18)
14:47.54 6. Mykhailo Romanchuk, UKR (2-18)
Team USA:
14:40.28 2. Bobby Finke, USA (6-23)
14:52.74 13. David Johnston (6-23)
Gold: Bobby Finke, USA
Silver: Dan Wiffen, Ireland
Bronze: Sam Short, Australia
MEN’S 400 MEDLEY RELAY
The U.S. men cruised to gold at last year’s World Championships, but months later, China nearly broke the world record with a dominant performance at the Asian Games. The two countries will face off in the final men’s event of the Olympics with gold on the line. The Americans will have either Ryan Murphy or Hunter Armstrong on backstroke and then Nic Fink on breaststroke, Caeleb Dressel on butterfly and either Jack Alexy or Chris Guiliano on freestyle.
China counters with a pair of stars in Qin Haiyang (breaststroke) and Pan Zhanle (freestyle) plus a veteran backstroker in Xu Jiayu. The key to keeping up will be managing a solid butterfly leg. Meanwhile, Australia has a great back three-fourths with Sam Williamson, Matt Temple and Kyle Chalmers, but struggles on backstroke. Great Britain has a butterfly hole, but Adam Peaty on breaststroke and Matt Richards will be anchoring after rising backstroker Oliver Morgan leads off.
World Record: 3:26.78 United States (Tokyo 8-1-21)
Ryan Murphy 52.31, Michael Andrew 58.49, Caeleb Dressel 49.03, Zach Apple 46.95
Gold: United States
Silver: China
Bronze: Great Britain
WOMEN’S 400 MEDLEY RELAY
The American women are big favorites to retake the medley relay gold they lost to Australia by 12-hundredths in Tokyo. That’s because three women likely to be on this relay are current world record holders in their respective 100-meter events: backstroker Regan Smith, breaststroker Lilly King and butterflyer Gretchen Walsh. Kate Douglass is poised to anchor for a team that could win by two seconds.
Australia is always tough, particularly with Kaylee McKeown leading off, veteran Emma McKeon on fly and Mollie O’Callaghan anchoring, but breaststroke is a weak spot for the Aussies. China, on the other hand, will shine with Tang Qianting (breast), Zhang Yufei (fly) and Yang Junxuan (free), but struggle on backstroke. Canada will have a chance to medal with Kylie Masse (back) and Maggie Mac Neil (fly), and either Penny Oleksiak or Summer McIntosh will anchor.
World Record: 3:50.40 United States (Gwangju 7-28-19)
Regan Smith 57.57, Lilly King 1:04.81, Kelsi Dahlia 56.16, Simone Manuel 51.86
Gold: United States
Silver: Australia
Bronze: China
