Olympic Swimming Predictions, Day 8: Can Katie Ledecky Accomplish Four-Peat in 800 Freestyle?
After one hundred years, the world’s premier sporting event returns to Paris. The 2024 Summer Olympics will begin July 26, and there will be 329 events in 32 sports, with roughly 10,500 athletes from 184 countries. This year’s Games mark the third time that Paris will have hosted the event, becoming only the second city to do so. Swimming’s 35 pool events will begin on Saturday, July 27, and will continue for nine days through Aug. 4 at the Paris La Défense Arena. Following is how Swimming World sees the action unfolding.
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MEN’S 100 BUTTERFLY
Caeleb Dressel — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
His competition will be fierce, but Caeleb Dressel will have his best chance at individual gold in Paris in the 100 butterfly. At the U.S. Olympic Trials, he clocked 50.19 in a dominant win, and while Canada’s Josh Liendo and Switzerland’s Noe Ponti have been slightly quicker this year, Dressel is building momentum toward a huge showing in this race.
Outside of Leon Marchand, Maxime Grousset will have the best chance of winning gold for France in the pool, and it will come in this race. Australia’s Matt Temple has also flashed 50-low speed, and Kristof Milak, the silver medalist behind Dressel three years ago and second-fastest swimmer ever, will be in the mix. Hungary’s Hubert Kos could also opt to chase a medal here.
World Record: 49.45 Caeleb Dressel, USA (Tokyo 7-31-21)
2024 World Rankings:
50.06 1. Josh Liendo, CAN (5-19)
50.16 2. Noe Ponti, SUI (4-6)
50.59 4. Maxime Grousset, FRA (6-21)
50.61 5. Matthew Temple, AUS (3-17)
50.75 6. Kristof Milak, HUN (6-2)
Team USA:
50.19 3. Caeleb Dressel, USA (6-22)
50.80 7. Thomas Heilman (6-22)
Gold: Caeleb Dressel, USA
Silver: Josh Liendo, Canada
Bronze: Maxime Grousset, France
WOMEN’S 200 INDIVIDUAL MEDLEY
This race for gold will feature half of history’s top-10 performers, including three swimmers who have broken 2:07 in their careers: Australia’s Kaylee McKeown, the USA’s Kate Douglass and Canada’s Summer McIntosh. Douglass, the 2023 and 2024 world champion in the event, is world-class in every stroke aside from backstroke, while McIntosh is a multi-time world champion in the 200 fly and 400 IM as well as an elite mid-distance freestyler. McKeown is one of history’s best backstrokers with no real weak stroke.
Those three are the favorites, but Alex Walsh will not go quietly. Walsh was the world champion in 2022 and the silver medalist in this race three years ago, and she has the best middle 100 meters of anyone in the field. Canada’s Sydney Pickrem broke 2:08 for the first time earlier this year, while Israel’s Anastasia Gorbenko, China’s Yu Yiting, the Netherlands’ Marrit Steenbergen and Great Britain’s Abbey Wood have all clocked 2:08s this year.
World Record: 2:06.12 Katinka Hosszu, HUN (Kazan 8-3-15)
2024 World Rankings:
2:06.63 1. Kaylee McKeown, AUS (6-10)
2:07.06 3. Summer McIntosh, CAN (5-19)
2:07.68 5. Sydney Pickrem, CAN (5-19)
2:08.55 7. Anastasia Gorbenko, ISR (5-29)
2:08.83 8. Yu Yiting, CHN (2-11)
Team USA:
2:06.79 2. Kate Douglass (6-22)
2:07.63 4. Alex Walsh (1-13)
Gold: Summer McIntosh, Canada
Silver: Kate Douglass, USA
Bronze: Kaylee McKeown, Australia
WOMEN’S 800 FREESTYLE
Katie Ledecky will aim to become the first female swimmer to win gold in the same event at four consecutive Olympics. She previously stunned the world as a 15-year-old in 2012, set an amazing world record of 8:04.79 in 2016, and she held off Ariarne Titmus in 2021. Titmus will be gunning for Ledecky again in this race, and she actually posted a slightly faster Olympic Trials performance than the American (8:14.06 to 8:14.12). But if Ledecky returns to the 8:07-range as she did last year, she will win gold easily.
Canada’s Summer McIntosh is the second-fastest swimmer ever, but she will not race the event in Paris. China’s Li Bingjie out-paced Titmus for silver at last year’s Worlds, and they should be the closest challengers to Ledecky, while Australia’s Lani Pallister, Italy’s Simona Quadarella, Germany’s Isabel Gose and New Zealand’s Erika Fairweather will chase medals as well.
World Record: 8:04.79 Katie Ledecky, USA (Rio 8-12-16)
2024 World Rankings:
8:14.06 2. Ariarne Titmus, AUS (6-13)
8:17.44 3. Simona Quadarella, ITA (2-17)
8:17.53 4. Isabel Gose, GER (2-17)
8:18.46 5. Lani Pallister, AUS (6-13)
8:21.67 7. Erika Fairweather, NZL (4-13)
Team USA:
8:12.95 1. Katie Ledecky (4-13)
8:20.71 6. Paige Madden (6-22)
Gold: Katie Ledecky, USA
Silver: Ariarne Titmus, Australia
Bronze: Li Bingjie, China
MIXED 400 MEDLEY RELAY
Night 8 will conclude with perhaps the most unpredictable event of the Games, the mixed medley relay, where countries can show off their strengths and hide weaknesses in a way they cannot in a single-gender relay. Almost every country goes with a male breaststroker and female freestyler, with backstroke and butterfly interchangeable.
Great Britain won the inaugural gold medal in this event three years ago, and Adam Peaty returns to provide a crucial breaststroke leg, but the British women do not have the speed to finish off the race. China will lead off with the veteran duo of Xu Jiayu and Qin Haiyang before giving way to Zhang Yufei on butterfly, and that could create an impossible-to-beat team.
Rising Australian breaststroker Sam Williamson will join a team likely featuring backstroker Kaylee McKeown, butterflyer Matt Temple and freestyler Mollie O’Callaghan, and while the U.S. has options, they need a huge breaststroke leg from Nic Fink to be in gold-medal contention.
World Record: 3:37.58 Great Britain (Tokyo 7-31-21)
Kathleen Dawson 58.80, Adam Peaty 56.78, James Guy 50.00, Anna Hopkin 52.00
Gold: Australia
Silver: United States
Bronze: China
