Olympic Swimming Predictions, Day 7: Cameron McEvoy Aiming to Fight Off Dressel, Proud in 50 Free
After one hundred years, the world’s premier sporting event returns to Paris. The 2024 Summer Olympics will begin July 26, and there will be 329 events in 32 sports, with roughly 10,500 athletes from 184 countries. This year’s Games mark the third time that Paris will have hosted the event, becoming only the second city to do so. Swimming’s 35 pool events will begin on Saturday, July 27, and will continue for nine days through Aug. 4 at the Paris La Défense Arena. Following is how Swimming World sees the action unfolding.
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MEN’S 50 FREESTYLE
Caeleb Dressel will try to defend his gold medal in the men’s splash-and-dash, but he is not the undisputed favorite as he was in Tokyo, when his margin of victory was almost a half-second, the largest in history. Now, the field Dressel faces includes recent world champions Ben Proud (Great Britain) and Cameron McEvoy (Australia), who sit right behind the American on the all-time list in the event. All own best times between 21.04 and 21.11.
Ukraine’s Vladyslav Bukhov and Canada’s Josh Liendo could contend here, while 2012 gold medalist Florent Manaudou will look to shine in front of his home-country fans. Chris Guiliano beat out recent Worlds medalists Jack Alexy and Michael Andrew for the No. 2 spot among Americans, and Jordan Crooks (Cayman Islands/University of Tennessee) could be a wild card.
World Record: 20.91 Cesar Cielo, BRA (São Paulo 12-18-09)
2024 World Rankings:
21.13 1. Cameron McEvoy, AUS (2-16)
21.25 2. Benjamin Proud, GBR (4-6)
21.38 3. Vladyslav Bukhov, UKR (2-16)
21.48 5. Josh Liendo, CAN (5-18)
21.52 6. Florent Manaudou, FRA (6-20)
Team USA:
21.41 4. Caeleb Dressel, USA (6-21)
21.59 7. Chris Guiliano (6-20)
Gold: Cameron McEvoy, Australia
Silver: Caeleb Dressel, USA
Bronze: Ben Proud, Great Britain
WOMEN’S 200 BACKSTROKE
Kaylee McKeown — Photo Courtesy: Delly Carr (Swimming Australia)
This one should be a repeat of the 100 back showdown between Kaylee McKeown and Regan Smith, the only two swimmers ever to break 2:04 in the event. McKeown holds the world record at 2:03.14, and she was just off that mark with a 2:03.30 at Australia’s Olympic Trials. She pulled away from Smith to win last year’s world title.
Expect a big gap after the top two, with American Phoebe Bacon and Canada’s Kylie Masse as the top contenders for bronze. Masse won silver behind McKeown at the Tokyo Olympics, while Bacon filled that slot at the 2022 World Championships.
World Record: 2:03.14 Kaylee McKeown, AUS (Sydney 3-10-23)
2024 World Rankings:
2:03.30 1. Kaylee McKeown, AUS (6-13)
2:06.24 4. Kylie Masse, CAN (5-16)
2:07.03 6. Jaclyn Barclay, AUS (2-17)
2:07.57 9. Peng Xuwei, CHN (4-25)
2:08.37 13. Honey Osrin, GBR (4-5)
Team USA:
2:03.99 2. Regan Smith (3-9)
2:06.27 5. Phoebe Bacon (6-21)
Gold: Kaylee McKeown, Australia
Silver: Regan Smith, USA
Bronze: Phoebe Bacon, USA
MEN’S 200 INDIVIDUAL MEDLEY
One year ago, the only men ever to break 1:55 in the 200 IM were Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps. France’s Leon Marchand joined that club on his way to a second consecutive world title, while China’s Wang Shun took over the No. 3 all-time spot with his performance at the Asian Games. When these two face off in Paris, Lochte’s 13-year-old world record of 1:54.00 could be on alert, particularly with Marchand buoyed by French fans.
With Duncan Scott and Tom Dean, Great Britain finished 2-3 in the event at last year’s World Championships, while Canada’s Finlay Knox was the surprise world champion earlier this year. Americans Carson Foster and Shaine Casas both broke 1:56 at the U.S. Olympic Trials, and we cannot count out Spain’s Hugo Gonzalez or Japanese veteran Daiya Seto.
World Record: 1:54.00 Ryan Lochte, USA (Shanghai 7-28-11)
2024 World Rankings:
1:55.35 1. Wang Shun, CHN (4-25)
1:55.91 4. Duncan Scott, GBR (4-5)
1:56.07 5. Finlay Knox, CAN (5-18)
1:56.33 6. Leon Marchand, FRA (6-21)
1:56.44 7. Tom Dean, GBR (4-5)
Team USA:
1:55.65 2. Carson Foster, USA (6-21)
1:55.83 3. Shaine Casas, USA (6-21)
Gold: Leon Marchand, France
Silver: Wang Shun, China
Bronze: Carson Foster, USA