Olympic Swimming Predictions, Day 6: Kos-Murphy, McIntosh-Smith Among Gold-Medal Matchups
After one hundred years, the world’s premier sporting event returns to Paris. The 2024 Summer Olympics will begin July 26, and there will be 329 events in 32 sports, with roughly 10,500 athletes from 184 countries. This year’s Games mark the third time that Paris will have hosted the event, becoming only the second city to do so. Swimming’s 35 pool events will begin on Saturday, July 27, and will continue for nine days through Aug. 4 at the Paris La Défense Arena. Following is how Swimming World sees the action unfolding.
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WOMEN’S 200 BUTTERFLY
Summer McIntosh has won two world titles in this event, but Regan Smith owns a quicker best time. McIntosh clocked a mark of 2:04.06 to pull away from the field for gold in Fukuoka last year, but Smith clocked 2:03.87 earlier in 2023 to break a 14-year-old American record. Smith usually sets an aggressive pace in the 200 fly, with McIntosh sure to need a closing burst to secure gold.
Australia’s Elizabeth Dekkers has emerged as a global force in the event, running down Smith for silver at Worlds last year, while defending Olympic champion Zhang Yufei is a wild card after scratching the race at last year’s Worlds. Watch also for teenagers Alex Shackell (USA), Abbey Connor (Australia) and Airi Mitsui (Japan).
World Record: 2:01.81 Liu Zige, CHN (Jinan 10-21-09)
2024 World Rankings:
2:04.33 1. Summer McIntosh, CAN (5-18)
2:05.20 3. Elizabeth Dekkers, AUS (4-18)
2:06.40 5. Zhang Yufei, CHN (4-24)
2:06.43 6. Abbey Connor, AUS (6-13)
2:06.54 7. Airi Mitsui, JPN (3-22)
Team USA:
2:04.80 2. Regan Smith (3-8)
2:06.10 4. Alex Shackell (6-19)
Gold: Summer McIntosh, Canada
Silver: Regan Smith, USA
Bronze: Zhang Yufei, China
MEN’S 200 BACKSTROKE
American Ryan Murphy will try to reclaim the gold medal he first won in 2016, but he faces a tough opponent in Hungarian Hubert Kos, who has yet to record a top-rate 200 back this year, but ran down Murphy to capture the world title last year in a time of 1:54.14. Murphy, meanwhile, swam his best time in three years to win the U.S. Olympic Trials in this event in 1:54.33.
The world’s top-three times in 2024 actually belong to Cal-trained swimmers with Murphy, Spain’s Hugo Gonzalez and American Keaton Jones. Ukrainian teenager Oleksandr Zheltiakov might be his country’s best chance at earning a swimming medal, while Switzerland’s Roman Mityukov won Worlds medals in 2023 and 2024.
World Record: 1:51.92 Aaron Peirsol, USA (Rome 7-31-09)
2024 World Rankings:
1:54.51 2. Hugo Gonzalez, ESP (6-20)
1:55.39 5. Oleksandr Zheltiakov, UKR (2-16)
1:55.40 6. Roman Mityukov, SUI (2-16)
1:55.42 7. Apostolos Siskos, GRE (6-19)
1:55.54 8. Mewen Tomac, FRA (6-20)
Team USA:
1:54.33 1. Ryan Murphy, USA (6-20)
1:54.61 3. Keaton Jones, USA (6-20)
Gold: Hubert Kos, Hungary
Silver: Ryan Murphy, USA
Bronze: Hugo Gonzalez, Spain
WOMEN’S 200 BREASTSTROKE
Tatjana Smith (née Schoenmaker) — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
The world record holder will be absent here, with Evgeniia Chikunova among the majority of Russians banned from the Games. That sets up a showdown for gold between defending champion and world champion Tatjana Smith (née Schoenmaker) of South Africa, Kate Douglass of the United States and Tes Schouten of the Netherlands.
Smith, the former world record holder at 2:18.95 from 2021, owns this year’s fastest time at 2:19.01, while Douglass and Schouten each broke 2:20 for the first time this year. Lilly King, the silver medalist three years ago, could swim her way into contention, with Ireland’s Mona McSharry, Denmark’s Thea Blomsterberg and Australia’s Ella Ramsay among the wild cards. China’s Ye Shiwen will try to return to the Olympic podium here, 12 years after sweeping the IM events in London.
World Record: 2:17.55 Evgeniia Chikunova, RUS (Kazan 4-21-23)
2024 World Rankings:
2:19.01 1. Tatjana Smith, RSA (4-10)
2:19.74 3. Evgeniia Chikunova, RUS (1-13)
2:19.81 4. Tes Schouten, NED (2-16)
2:22.49 7. Mona McSharry, IRL (2-22)
2:22.55 8. Ye Shiwen, CHN (4-24)
Team USA:
2:19.30 2. Kate Douglass (1-13)
2:21.93 5. Lilly King (6-20)
Gold: Kate Douglass, USA
Silver: Tatjana Smith, South Africa
Bronze: Tes Schouten, Netherlands
WOMEN’S 800 FREESTYLE RELAY
Australia was favored for Olympic gold in this race in Tokyo before falling to bronze, but this time, the Aussie lead on the rest of the world should be insurmountable. That’s because Ariarne Titmus and Mollie O’Callaghan are the two fastest swimmers in history, with both women clocking 1:52s to break the existing world record at Australia’s Olympic Trials, while Lani Pallister, Brianna Throssell and Shayna Jack are all great options to finish out this squad.
The U.S. still has Katie Ledecky, while Paige Madden returns from a silver-medal-winning team three years ago, but Claire Weinstein needs to perform well at her first Olympics for the Americans to even secure silver. China, the surprise gold medalists in Tokyo, will be led by Yang Junxuan, while Canada has Summer McIntosh and Mary-Sophie Harvey.
World Record: 7:37.50 Australia (Fukuoka 7-27-23)
Mollie O’Callaghan 1:53.66, Shayna Jack 1:55.63, Brianna Throssell 1:55.80, Ariarne Titmus 1:52.41
Gold: Australia
Silver: United States
Bronze: Canada
Maybe not in LCM but 2 x 1:35+ SCY certainly reflects continuation of quality from Kos since last summer.
Good choices.