Olympic Swimming Predictions, Day 5: 100 Freestyle Finals Bookend Busy Middle Night
After one hundred years, the world’s premier sporting event returns to Paris. The 2024 Summer Olympics will begin July 26, and there will be 329 events in 32 sports, with roughly 10,500 athletes from 184 countries. This year’s Games mark the third time that Paris will have hosted the event, becoming only the second city to do so. Swimming’s 35 pool events will begin on Saturday, July 27, and will continue for nine days through Aug. 4 at the Paris La Défense Arena. Following is how Swimming World sees the action unfolding.
WOMEN’S 100 FREESTYLE
After Emma McKeon won gold for Australia three years ago in Tokyo, Mollie O’Callaghan will try to succeed her atop the podium for the Dolphins. O’Callaghan is the two-time world champion in the event, and last year she swam a mark of 52.07 to move to No. 7 all-time. But Siobhan Haughey, the silver medalist in Tokyo, has actually been quicker, going 52.02 on the World Cup circuit last fall to become the third-fastest woman ever.
Marrit Steenbergen won the world title earlier this year, while Shayna Jack, the second Aussie in the field, is another all-time top-10 performer. Americans Torri Huske and Gretchen Walsh plus China’s Yang Junxuan should be on the periphery of contention, while Sarah Sjostrom is a threat if she decides to add the 100 free back to her schedule this year.
World Record: 51.71r Sarah Sjostrom, SWE (Budapest 7-23-17)
2024 World Rankings:
52.26 1. Marrit Steenbergen, NED (2-16)
52.27 2. Mollie O’Callaghan, AUS (4-17)
52.52 3. Meg Harris, AUS (6-14)
52.55 4. Siobhan Haughey, HKG (5-26)
52.57 6. Sarah Sjostrom, SWE (6-22)
Team USA:
52.90 9. Torri Huske (6-18)
53.13 14. Gretchen Walsh (6-19)
Gold: Mollie O’Callaghan, Australia
Silver: Siobhan Haughey, Hong Kong
Bronze: Marrit Steenbergen, Netherlands
MEN’S 200 BUTTERFLY
If Kristof Milak can replicate anything close to his best form, he will win gold here. The defending champion set a world record of 1:50.34 at the 2022 World Championships, but he was absent from international racing in 2023. He has returned and posted some quick times thus far in 2024, but Leon Marchand will be hard to beat. The Frenchman moved to third all-time in the event behind Milak and Michael Phelps (1:51.51) while capturing the 2023 world title in 1:52.43.
Poland’s Krzysztof Chmielewski and Japan’s Tomoru Honda joined Marchand on the podium last year, and Honda was the world champion earlier this year. Teenagers Ilya Kharun (Canada) and Thomas Heilman (USA) should be in contention after the fast-finishing duo nearly stole medals at last year’s Worlds before tying for fourth.
World Record: 1:50.34 Kristof Milak, HUN (Budapest 6-21-22)
2024 World Rankings:
1:53.88 1. Tomoru Honda, JPN (2-14)
1:53.94 2. Kristof Milak, HUN (6-1)
1:54.07 3. Genki Terakado, JPN (3-21)
1:54.08 4. Leon Marchand, FRA (6-19)
1:54.34 5. Giacomo Carini, ITA (6-22)
Team USA:
1:54.50 7. Thomas Heilman (6-19)
1:54.64 9. Luca Urlando (6-18)
Gold: Kristof Milak, Hungary
Silver: Leon Marchand, France
Bronze: Tomoru Honda, Japan
WOMEN’S 1500 FREESTYLE
Katie Ledecky — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
The 30-lap race is Katie Ledecky’s best event, and the winner of the inaugural Olympic gold in the event three years ago will not be beaten here. Ledecky owns the world record at 15:20.48, but even though she was well short of that time at the U.S. Olympic Trials (15:37.35), she still posted a time nearly 10 seconds quicker than any other swimmer has notched in 2024.
Italy’s Simona Quadarella has captured four World Championship medals in this event, including golds in Ledecky’s absence in 2019 and 2024, so she could reach the podium here, while China’s Li Bingjie is also a multi-time Worlds medalist in this event. Germany’s Isabel Gose, Australia’s Lani Pallister and Moesha Johnson, France’s Anastasiia Kirpichnikova and the United States’ Katie Grimes have also broken 16:00 this year.
World Record: 15:20.48 Katie Ledecky, USA (Indianapolis 5-16-18)
2024 World Rankings:
15:46.99 2. Simona Quadarella, ITA (2-13)
15:50.56 3. Isabel Gose, GER (6-21)
15:53.79 4. Lani Pallister, AUS (6-15)
15:56.62 5. Li Bingjie, CHN (2-13)
15:56.92 6. Anastasiia Kirpichnikova, FRA (5-25)
Team USA:
15:37.35 1. Katie Ledecky (6-19)
15:57.77 7. Katie Grimes (6-19)
Gold: Katie Ledecky, USA
Silver: Simona Quadarella, Italy
Bronze: Li Bingjie, China
MEN’S 200 BREASTSTROKE
At last year’s World Championships, Qin Haiyang took down Olympic champion Zac Stubblety-Cook to win gold in the 200 breast and take away the Australian’s world record, becoming the first swimmer ever under 2:06 in the process. This year, Qin and Stubblety-Cook will be back along with a host of challengers.
American rookie Matt Fallon, the bronze medalist at the 2023 Worlds, and Japan’s Ippei Watanabe, a former world record holder, have both clocked 2:06s so far this year, with Japan’s Yu Hanaguruma, Stubblety-Cook and China’s Dong Zhihao all going 2:07s.
Meanwhile, Leon Marchand is likely to throw his name into the mix, even if that means a double after the 200 fly. Marchand has never raced a breaststroke event at a major meet, but he excels in the stroke within the IM, and during his college career, he has become the fastest swimmer ever in the short course 200-yard breaststroke.
World Record: 2:05.48 Qin Haiyang, CHN (Fukuoka 7-28-23)
2024 World Rankings:
2:06.94 2. Ippei Watanabe, JPN (3-21)
2:07.07 3. Yu Hanaguruma, JPN (3-21)
2:07.40 4. Zac Stubblety-Cook, AUS (6-14)
2:07.48 5. Kirill Prigoda, RUS (4-17)
2:07.75 6. Yamato Fukasawa, JPN (3-21)
Team USA:
2:06.54 1. Matt Fallon, USA (6-19)
2:08.79 13. Josh Matheny (6-18)
Gold: Qin Haiyang, China
Silver: Leon Marchand, France
Bronze: Matt Fallon, USA
MEN’S 100 FREESTYLE
It could take a time under 47 seconds to reach the podium in the blue-ribbon event, and two men have already gone that fast this year. China’s Pan Zhanle broke the world record at the World Championships in February with a time of 46.80, but last month, Romania’s David Popovici fired back with a 46.88, just 2-hundredths off his previous world mark set in 2022.
Australia’s Kyle Chalmers will try to reclaim the gold he first won in Rio eight years ago, and while defending champion Caeleb Dressel did not qualify for the U.S. team, the Americans will send two quickly-improving stars in Jack Alexy and Chris Guiliano. France’s Maxime Grousset, Hungary’s Nandor Nemeth and Canada’s Josh Liendo all look like major threats.
World Record: 46.80r Pan Zhanle, CHN (Doha 2-11-24)
2024 World Rankings:
46.80 1. Pan Zhanle, CHN (2-11)
46.88 2. David Popovici, ROU (6-19)
47.33 5. Maxime Grousset, FRA (6-18)
47.49 6. Nandor Nemeth, HUN (6-19)
47.55 8. Josh Liendo, CAN (5-16)
Team USA:
47.08 3. Jack Alexy, USA (6-18)
47.25 5. Chris Guiliano, USA (6-18)
Gold: David Popovici, Romania
Silver: Pan Zhanle, China
Bronze: Kyle Chalmers, Australia
In the men’s 100 freestyle it should be Alexy in Chalmers place for bronze. He posted a time quicker than Chalmers best ever in semis of a trials. He will pr and definitely podium while I don’t think the Aussie has that kind of speed left in him with all his injury issues.