Olympic Swimming Predictions, Day 4: Regan Smith, Kaylee McKeown Face Off in 100 Backstroke
After one hundred years, the world’s premier sporting event returns to Paris. The 2024 Summer Olympics will begin July 26, and there will be 329 events in 32 sports, with roughly 10,500 athletes from 184 countries. This year’s Games mark the third time that Paris will have hosted the event, becoming only the second city to do so. Swimming’s 35 pool events will begin on Saturday, July 27, and will continue for nine days through Aug. 4 at the Paris La Défense Arena. Following is how Swimming World sees the action unfolding.
WOMEN’S 100 BACKSTROKE
After Kaylee McKeown came up just short of breaking her own world record at Australia’s Olympic Trials in June, Regan Smith got the job done one week later at the American selection meet. Smith swam a time of 57.13 to knock two tenths off McKeown’s mark and reclaim the record she previously held from 2019 through 2021. The two will face off for Olympic gold in both backstroke events after McKeown swept the 50, 100 and 200 over Smith at last year’s World Championships.
Entering this year, only McKeown, Smith and Kylie Masse had ever broken 58, and Masse returned to that territory with a 57.94 at Canada’s Trials. Then, Mollie O’Callaghan and Katharine Berkoff swam 57.8s at their respective meets, but O’Callaghan will skip the 100 back in Paris to focus on the 100 and 200 free.
World Record: 57.13 Regan Smith, USA (Indianapolis 6-18-24)
2024 World Rankings:
57.41 2. Kaylee McKeown, AUS (6-11)
57.88 4. Mollie O’Callaghan, AUS (6-11)
57.94 5. Kylie Masse, CAN (5-15)
58.43 7. Iona Anderson, AUS (6-11)
58.79 9. Emma Terebo, FRA (6-17)
Team USA:
57.13 1. Regan Smith (6-18)
57.83 3. Katharine Berkoff (6-17)
Gold: Regan Smith, USA
Silver: Kaylee McKeown, Australia
Bronze: Katharine Berkoff, USA
MEN’S 800 FREESTYLE
Sam Short — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
Five swimmers broke 7:40 in last year’s World Championships final, making it the fastest field ever assembled. Tunisia’s Ahmed Hafnaoui won gold, but his status for the Olympics is uncertain, leaving Australia’s Sam Short, the United States’ Bobby Finke, Ireland’s Dan Wiffen and Germany’s Lukas Martens as the standouts from Fukuoka returning to contend, along with Italy’s Gregorio Paltrinieri.
Finke won the inaugural Olympic gold in this event in 2021 as he scorched the last 50 to zoom ahead of the favorites, but others have copied his strategy, so he will have to stay close enough to pull off a repeat this year.
World Record: 7:32.12 Zhang Lin, CHN (Rome 7-29-09)
2024 World Rankings:
7:40.94 1. Daniel Wiffen, IRL (2-14)
7:42.95 2. Elijah Winnington, AUS (2-14)
7:42.98 3. Gregorio Paltrinieri, ITA (2-14)
7:43.52 4. Lukas Martens, GER (6-22)
7:43.98 5. Samuel Short, AUS (4-19)
Team USA:
7:44.22 6. Bobby Finke (6-18)
7:45.19 9. Luke Whitlock (6-18)
Gold: Sam Short, Australia
Silver: Dan Wiffen, Ireland
Bronze: Bobby Finke, USA
MEN’S 800 FREESTYLE RELAY
Great Britain won gold in this event three years ago, and the same four men return to defend that title. Matt Richards was an 18-year-old rookie in Tokyo, but now he is the world champion in the 200 free, and he is joined by the accomplished group of Duncan Scott, Tom Dean and James Guy. Britain just missed the world record at both the Tokyo Games and last year’s Worlds, and we can expect the United States’ 2009 mark of 6:58.55 to go down here.
The U.S. could push Britain with Luke Hobson fronting a relay stacked full of 1:45s, while Australia, South Korea and China are among the other medal contenders. China will feature 100 free world record holder Pan Zhanle, while the Koreans have Hwang Sunwoo, and Kyle Chalmers could team up with a young Aussie squad.
World Record: 6:58.55 United States (Rome 7-31-09)
Michael Phelps 1:44.49, Ricky Berens 1:44.13, David Walters 1:45.47, Ryan Lochte 1:44.46
Gold: Great Britain
Silver: United States
Bronze: Australia