Olympic Swimming Predictions, Day 2: Leon Marchand Heavily Favored For First Gold Medal
After one hundred years, the world’s premier sporting event returns to Paris. The 2024 Summer Olympics will begin July 26, and there will be 329 events in 32 sports, with roughly 10,500 athletes from 184 countries. This year’s Games mark the third time that Paris will have hosted the event, becoming only the second city to do so. Swimming’s 35 pool events will begin on Saturday, July 27, and will continue for nine days through Aug. 4 at the Paris La Défense Arena. Following is how Swimming World sees the action unfolding.
MEN’S 400 INDIVIDUAL MEDLEY
Expect this to be the first golden moment for Leon Marchand at the Paris Games, with fans in his home country sure to explode if Marchand can lower the world record of 4:02.50 that he set at last year’s World Championships, when he wiped Michael Phelps’ final individual mark from the books. Marchand is the fastest active swimmer by more than four seconds, and he is the strongest gold-medal favorite in any men’s event.
Carson Foster has won silver at the 2022 and 2023 World Championships behind Marchand, and he enters Paris with the world’s fastest time this year (4:07.64). Veterans Daiya Seto, Lewis Clareburt, Max Litchfield, Brendon Smith and Chase Kalisz are all past international medal winners in this event, with Kalisz winning gold in Tokyo.
World Record: 4:02.50 Leon Marchand, FRA (Fukuoka 7-23-23)
2024 World Rankings:
4:09.14 2. Max Litchfield, GBR (4-4)
4:09.59 4. Ilia Borodin, RUS (4-18)
4:09.68 5. Daiya Seto, JPN (6-22)
4:09.72 6. Lewis Clareburt, NZL (2-18)
4:10.04 7. Tomoyuki Matsushita, JPN (3-18)
Team USA:
4:07.64 1. Carson Foster, USA (6-16)
4:09.39 3. Chase Kalisz, USA (6-16)
Gold: Leon Marchand, France
Silver: Carson Foster, USA
Bronze: Chase Kalisz, USA
WOMEN’S 100 BUTTERFLY
Gretchen Walsh — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
At last month’s U.S. Olympic Trials, Regan Smith finished third in the 100 fly at 55.62, tying her for fifth all-time in the event, yet she did not earn a spot in Paris in the event. That’s because Gretchen Walsh broke Sarah Sjostrom’s eight-year-old world record (55.48) in the semifinals. She then backed up the mark the next night with Torri Huske, the 2022 world champion in the event, eclipsing her previous American record.
The two Americans will have competition from a trio of others with global titles in this event: defending Olympic champion Maggie Mac Neil of Canada, 2023 world champion Zhang Yufei of China and 2024 world champion Angelina Kohler of Germany, while Australia’s Emma McKeon looms as a wild card.
World Record: 55.18sf Gretchen Walsh (Indianapolis 6-15-24)
2024 World Rankings:
56.11sf 4. Angelina Kohler, GER (2-11)
56.36 5. Zhang Yufei, CHN (4-20)
56.54p 6. Margaret MacNeil, CAN (5-13)
56.58 7. Emma McKeon, AUS (4-20)
56.77 9. Brianna Throssell, AUS (4-20)
Team USA:
55.18s 1. Gretchen Walsh (6-15)
55.52 2. Torri Huske (6-16)
Gold: Gretchen Walsh, USA
Silver: Torri Huske, USA
Bronze: Zhang Yufei, China
MEN’S 100 BREASTSTROKE
Adam Peaty will try to achieve a feat that only Michael Phelps has ever accomplished among male swimmers: win three consecutive Olympic gold medals in one event. After a stretch defined by injuries and mental struggles, Peaty swam his fastest time in two-and-a-half years with a 57.94 at the British Championships in April. His toughest competition for Paris will be Qin Haiyang, the Chinese swimmer who swept all three breaststroke events at last year’s Worlds.
Italy’s Nicolo Martinenghi and the Netherlands’ Arno Kamminga joined Peaty on the Olympic podium in 2021, and American Nic Fink has been among the most successful swimmers in this event in recent years, winning the world title earlier this year, ahead of Martinenghi. Other contenders who have posted 58s this year include China’s Sun Jiajun, Australia’s Sam Williamson, Germany’s Melvin Imoudo and Russia’s Evgenii Somov, who will be competing as a neutral athlete.
World Record: 56.88 Adam Peaty, GBR (Gwangju 7-21-19)
2024 World Rankings:
57.94 1. Adam Peaty, GBR (4-2)
58.24 2. Qin Yaiyang, CHN (4-20)
58.72 4. Evgenii Somov, RUS (5-16)
58.73 5. Sun Jiajun, CHN (4-20)
58.80 6. Sam Williamson, AUS (6-10)
Team USA:
58.57 3. Nic Fink, USA (2-12)
59.16 11. Charlie Swanson (6-16)
Gold: Qin Haiyang, China
Silver: Adam Peaty, Great Britain
Bronze: Nicolo Martinenghi, Italy
In the 400m IM why isn’t GB’s Litchfield in the Bronze position? He’s third fastest on the times you displayed. Then the similar with German Kohler in the Women’s 100m Butterfly. Finally,nope its a ThreePeaty!
Hopefully Chinese PED’s swimmers fail to medal!
Also,don’t put the American competitors separately in the rankings. Its visually off-putting. I want to see the rankings ‘flow’. Afterall, you are part of the world,despite what many of you seem to think, Not something ‘special’!