Flying to France: U.S. Roster Taking Shape But Men Facing Roster Crunch

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Flying to France: U.S. Roster Taking Shape But Men Facing Roster Crunch

Through five days of the U.S. Olympic Trials, roster spots in 17 events have been determined, with 11 more finals to come over the next four days. The winners of every event plus the top-four swimmers in the 100 and 200 freestyle were automatically named to the team, presented with their awards in front of the crowd at Lucas Oil Stadium. The only non-first-place swimmer in a non-relay event to take part in a medal ceremony has been Katie Grimes, who stood on the podium with Katie Ledecky after the 1500 freestyle since she had already qualified for the pool team in the 400 IM.

Further second-place swimmers will be added to the team based on swimmers achieving doubles, qualifying for additional events on the team, until roster caps of 26 women and 26 men are reached. All other second-place finishers will be added next, followed by fifth-place finishers in the 100 and 200 free and finally the sixth-place swimmers in those events.

Typically, all of the potential qualifiers end up being added to the team, but there have been a pair of recent memorable exceptions. In 2021, Ryan Held missed qualifying for Tokyo despite finishing sixth in the 100 free at Trials. And last year, when winners of the 50-meter stroke races at U.S. Nationals were the fifth priority for making the World Championships team, Michael Andrew did not make the trip to Fukuoka despite winning the 50 butterfly.

How is the Paris group looking this time? The American women’s team should be able to take all potential qualifiers, but the men’s team has recorded only three doubles so far, putting potential relay alternates in jeopardy. Note that an additional double is counted whenever a swimmer qualifies for an additional event. Since Ledecky is qualified in the 200, 400 and 1500 free so far, she counts as two doubles.

Men’s Team

The following athletes have been officially named to the team as Trials winners or top-four finishers in the 100 and 200 free:

Aaron Shackell (400 free)
Carson Foster (400 IM)
Nic Fink (100 breast)
Luke Hobson (200 free)
Chris Guiliano (200 free, 100 free)
Drew Kibler (800 free relay)
Kieran Smith (400 free, 800 free relay)
Ryan Murphy (100 back)
Bobby Finke (800 free)
Thomas Heilman (200 fly)
Matt Fallon (200 breast)
Jack Alexy (100 free)
Caeleb Dressel (400 free relay)
Hunter Armstrong (100 back, 400 free relay)

Second-place finishers:

Chase Kalisz (400 IM)
Charlie Swanson (200 breast)
Luke Whitlock (800 free)
Luca Urlando (200 fly)
Josh Matheny (800 free)

Fifth-place relay swimmers:

Brooks Curry (800 free relay)
Ryan Held (800 free relay)

Sixth-place relay swimmers:

Blake Pieroni (800 free relay)
Matt King (400 free relay)

With 14 individual events on the Olympic schedule plus the extra relay spots, there are a total of 36 Olympic slots for each gender, requiring 10 doubles in order for everyone to get on. Currently, achieving that threshold looks unlikely: the only swimmers qualified in multiple events so far are Kieran Smith, Chris Guiliano and Hunter Armstrong. The relay alternates, especially the sixth-place swimmers, were rooting for Nic Fink to make the team in the 200 breast, but now the U.S. is likely to take four swimmers in that stroke to Paris.

Where could further doubles come from? Ryan Murphy is a near-lock to make it a fourth double Thursday evening in the 200 backstroke. In Friday’s 50 free, the qualifiers are likely to come from the top-six finishers in the 100 free while Carson Foster and Chase Kalisz are among the favorites to double up in the 200 IM. Caeleb Dressel could get another double in the 100 fly, with Bobby Finke heavily favored to make it in the 1500 free on the final day.

If all those swimmers come through, it would be exactly 10 doubles. If someone not already on the team — Michael Andrew, perhaps — qualifies in the 50 free or if Kalisz misses the team in the 200 IM, sixth-place swimmers Blake Pieroni and Matt King would be dependent on a surprise like Luca Urlando or Thomas Heilman making it in the 100 fly or Luke Whitlock pulling a surprise in the 800 free.

The fifth-place swimmers are likely to be clear by the end of the meet, so Held should avoid a second consecutive Olympic heartbreak, but Pieroni and King need to be counting roster spots throughout the remainder of the meet.

Women’s Team

Winners and top-four finishers in the 100 and 200 free:

Katie Ledecky (400 free, 200 free, 1500 free)
Gretchen Walsh (100 fly, 400 free relay)
Katie Grimes (400 IM, 1500 free)
Lilly King (100 breast)
Claire Weinstein (200 free)
Paige Madden (400 free, 800 free relay)
Erin Gemmell (800 free relay)
Regan Smith (100 back)
Kate Douglass (100 free)
Torri Huske (100 fly, 100 free)
Simone Manuel (400 free relay)

Second-place finishers:

Emma Weyant (400 IM)
Emma Weber (100 breast)
Katharine Berkoff (100 back)

Fifth-place relay swimmers:

Anna Peplowski (800 free relay)
Abbey Weitzeil (400 free relay)

Sixth-place relay swimmers:

Alex Shackell (800 free relay)
Erika Connolly or Catie Deloof (400 free relay)

Notes: Ledecky has stated she is likely to drop the individual 200 free in Paris, which would move Paige Madden into the individual event, but it will not change the roster composition. Erika Connolly and Catie Deloof will swim off after a tie for sixth in the 100 free final.

Thanks largely to Ledecky’s three wins thus far at Trials, there are already six doubles on the women’s side, with Grimes, Madden, Gretchen Walsh and Torri Huske already on the team twice. That clinches a spot for all second-place swimmers, so in theory, Emma Weyant, Emma Weber and Katharine Berkoff could be officially named to the team as soon as Thursday evening.

And we expect plenty more doubles: Ledecky in the 800 free, Regan Smith in the 200 fly and 200 back, Douglass in the 200 breast and 200 IM and Walsh in the 50 free are all obvious choices, and that would reach the threshold of 10. We can expect both spots in the 50 free to come from existing qualifiers while Alex Shackell is the favorite for second place in the 200 fly. So there should be no trouble for any of the relay swimmers for getting onto the team, although they have not mathematically clinched spots yet.

Finally, a rule requiring no more than 12 relay-only swimmers between women and men combined will not be a factor in determining the final composition of this Olympic roster, with exactly 12 swimmers currently scheduled for only relays (and several of them could still qualify for individual swims).

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