FINA World Championships Predictions: Women’s 400 Medley Relay

USA would realistically have to break, or miss the bus to the pool, not to win this one with consumate ease. Every one else are carrying at least one leg that is either debateable or glaringly uncompetitive; end of story.

With due respect to the SW pundits, whom I do personally hold in regard, they are still wearing some 2015 or Rio tinged lenses when it comes to AUS relays ….. sorry but this is probably the weakest AUS swim team to be sent to a Worlds in the past 25 years ! The only mildly secure medal bet is the w4x100.

Whilst Seebohm 2017 is much healthier than the 2016 moidel, she is merely “good Seebohm” not the “superb Seebohm” of 2015. At best she will leave AUS within reach at first change but then it’s likely to fall apart. McKeown has a history of “falling to pieces” on this relay (Kazan/Rio) & Hansen is a debutant (best case scenario would be a 1.06low split but just as likely to be north of 1.07flat). McKeon, for all her talent, has an equivocal record on this relay so they may not bring much if at all. People are also fixed on the C2 of 2015 who was anchor splitting close to 51mid ….. but that is not the C2 of 2017 who is still hampered by shoulder issues. It would be surprising if she could split much below 52.5. The heroic medal rescue mission will most likely fall short unless the brs/fly hold it together sufficiently that she is within 1sec hitting the water.

CHN look fairly solid bets for a medal, most likely silver, due to being even across the squad …. albeit probably lacking a gamechanger that can break open the race on any leg and their anchor may come back to the field.

CAN ?? Whilst I can forsee them becoming one of the peak challengers to USA leading into Tokyo; I’m sceptical this will be the year given the slightly weakened team. Masse should see them at or near the lead but with BRS may see them haemorrage major time (ala AUS). The issue then is whether they employ Oleksiak on fly or anchor. Oleksiak on form and Ruck present would make this an easier call but that is not an available option. I feel that CAN may outpoint AUS this time round but I’m not sure that it may be enough for a medal.

SWE ?? A very real factor for a minor medal …… but most likely will be completely overlooked by TV commentators fixated on “their team(s)”. They DO have the major weakness of not possessing a quality backstroker but whilst this will see them maybe 2.5sec+ back at the first change, this could managed to then have 3 very strong legs to finish.

They have traditionally been employing Coleman on back (thus taking out of play a very viable/competitive anchor option), Instead I would employ Nilson who would not be appreciably worse. On BRS, Johannson can probably split sub 1,06 and that will see them bringing back ground (and around 1sec) against all other teams bar USA & RUS (not a likely medal shot). Switch over to SS and you will see her taking 1.5 sec against all other bronze candidates. You then throw in Coleman on anchor and she will most probably match up quite well against a sub-par C2 and outmatch a non Oleksiak CAN anchor