Commentary by Jeff Commings
Never count out the Australians when it comes to international meets. Looking at the roster for world championships, the Australians have the names in place to do some major damage in Kazan this August. Not only are reigning world champions Cate Campbell, James Magnussen and Christian Sprenger on the list, but major medal possibilities exist in the likes of Mack Horton, Emily Seebohm and Emma McKeon. On the right day, those three could step up and win gold.
Not many people expected Australia to win 13 medals at the 2013 worlds. That was three more than they won at the 2012 Olympics, and probably twice as much as pundits thought the Green and Gold could muster. But rallying behind the likes of the Campbell sisters (Cate and Bronte), Magnussen and many more, Australia began to swing the pendulum back in the right direction after out-of-the-pool scandal rocked the team in 2012. Great performances in 2013 gave Australia momentum for a great showing at the 2014 Pan Pacific championships.
Cate Campbell and Magnussen could repeat as world champions in the 100 freestyle, and looking at the world standings at this point in the year, the only competition looks to come from their own squad. Cate’s little sister Bronte and Cameron McEvoy pose the biggest challenges. As for Sprenger, the aftermath of a serious shoulder injury has affected his breaststroke training. It was pure luck that he was selected for the world championships team, since his team in the 100 breast was slower than the qualifying time. Sprenger must get back into 2013 form if he wants to even win a medal. Jake Packard is making huge strides, and might be a worthy backup for the Aussies if Sprenger is not in his best shape.
Photo Courtesy: Joao Marc Bosch
Though we haven’t seen too much of Sun Yang since the Asian Games last fall, there’s no doubt he’s the one to beat in distance freestyle. But Mack Horton has transitioned from guppy to full-grown shark in the span of two years, and he will be dangerous in the 800 and 1500 freestyles. The last time Australia won a world title in distance freestyle was in 2005, when Grant Hackett won the 400, 800 and 1500 freestyles. Ten years is a long drought for a country that used to drop everything to watch the 1500 at the Olympics.
Photo Courtesy: Swimming Australia
Speaking of Hackett, his presence on the team will provide a much-needed boost. His experience at the international level is invaluable, especially for the younger athletes on the team. Since he only has the 800 free relay to swim in Russia, it’s likely he’ll be voted team captain and provide the morale that Australia needs. Horton will likely get a tip or two from Hackett on racing against the best on the biggest stage.
Emily Seebohm looks better and better each time she swims. The 22-year-old hasn’t won an individual gold medal at the world championships, but things are looking good for her in the backstroke events. With Missy Franklin’s back injury keeping her from her best in 2014, we have no gauge on how the reigning world champion will fare in August. But Seebohm put forth some challenging times last week and that not only gives her confidence, but alerts the rest of the world that Seebohm is hungry for gold.
Photo Courtesy: Delly Carr
Relays still appear to be the sticking point for Australia. The men are not going to win gold in any relay, based on the times posted at nationals. Australia will need a leadoff swimmer in the 47-mid range and three others swimming 47.5 or better to win the 400 free relay, and that might not happen. The same goes for the women, who will have to contend with a very deep American squad that includes Franklin, Simone Manuel and Abbey Weitzeil. The Aussie women might win the 400 medley relay, but it’s the breaststroke leg that suffers. The Americans lost to Australia in the women’s medley relay at Pan Pacs last summer for the first loss in many years, and it appears that the race will come down to whatever happens on butterfly. Though she’s likely to swim stunningly fast, Simone Manuel will need a slight lead over Cate Campbell to keep the world championships streak alive.
A lot of credit for the great swimming going on Down Under goes to Jacco Verhaeren, who has been the head coach of the Australian national team since October 2013 after more than a decade leading the Dutch to great success. When I was at the Pan Pacific championships last August, the Australian team seemed to be more jovial and relaxed than before. Swimming in their home country might have something to do with that, but a great leader can help raise the mood as well. Australia is in good position to beat its 13-medal haul from 2013, but some will have to be much faster than they were at trials last week to make that happen.
One wonders how much international swimming the author has been following. “the same goes for the women, who will have to contend with a very deep american squad”. the women’s 4x100m freestyle is actually the only event that the Australians would be overwhelming favourites in. They have 2 girls who are capable of going sub 53 (including Cate Campbell 52.33) and 2 other girls (Wright/McKeon) who can go sub 53.5. They are also the world record holders – breaking the super suits world record from 2009 by a second. No other teams have anywhere near that depth – (they could even have Elmslie/Wilson/Seebohm/Barratt swim in the heats and be fast enough to guarantee Lane 4).
On the other hand, James Magnussen and Cate Campbell have much more competition than “the only competition looks to come from their own squad”. Magnussen hasn’t been swimming that well this year and has plenty of international competition from the US/Brazil/France/China. While I would still back Cate to win, Heemskerk and Sjostrom are capable of challenging her with low 52s.
In short though, no, Australians won’t dominate the medal table with the performances shown this last week. At best, they’ll get golds from some relays (womens/mixed), Cate Campbell, and perhaps James Magnussen/Mack Horton/Emily Seebohm. The Americans will once again dominate the medal tally.
Have to agree with Anon. The writer is way off on those points. How is the American squad “very deep” when their fastest is barely ahead of the slowest girl on the Aussie relay?
The recent trials shows some serious weakness in the Australian team. Apart from Horton, Seebohm and the Campbells, there isn’t much to indicate they are able to challenge for individual medals in the other events.
The girl that won the 200fly will fight for a medal although it will be tough to beat Belmonte. The 400 free(mixed and female) relay will be most likely won by Australia.
What happened to James Roberts? In the 400free, to beat France, Magnussen would have to open with a 47,5 and Mcevoy go under 47, other two would have to go sub 48