Editorial content for the 2023 World Aquatics Championships is sponsored by FINIS, a longtime partner of Swimming World and leading innovator of suits, goggles and equipment. Can U.S. Conclude World Championships With Medley Relay Wins? As usual, the 400 medley relays will be final races of the World Championships in Fukuoka, and the often-dominant Americans will enter having yet to reach the top of the podium in the six relays already contested. The U.S. and Australia have each finished in the top-three in every relay so far, but the Aussies have four relay wins and superior finishes to the Americans in all except the men’s 800 freestyle relay. Moving away from freestyle, a stroke which Australia has dominated this week with six out of 10 individual gold medals and three out of four relays, can the Americans finally touch first in one of these medleys or even both? Yes, absolutely — but neither will come easily with stacked opponents looming. Beginning with the men’s medley relay, we have identified six countries with the firepower to at least challenge for a medal, and each of these countries had at least one podium finisher in a 100-meter race. The U.S., actually, got a man on the podium in each of the strokes, with Ryan Murphy winning gold in the men’s 100 backstroke, Nic Fink finishing in a three-way tie for silver in the 100 breaststroke, Dare Rose taking bronze in the 100 butterfly and Jack Alexy blasting an outside-lane silver medal in the 100 free. The top competition includes: China’s Qin Haiyang swept the men’s breaststroke events in Fukuoka — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto Any team hoping to secure medley relay gold must minimize and overcome weaknesses. For instance, during the years when Peaty and the Brits were chasing the Americans, winning a world title in 2019 as well as several other silvers, the trick was making sure to not be too far behind after backstroke, with Luke Greenbank not nearly at Murphy levels. And each of these teams certainly has a stroke weakness. For China and Italy, it’s butterfly, with neither country advancing a swimmer to the individual final. Wang Changhao was 18th in the 100 butterfly in 51.78 and Federico Burdisso 20th in 51.98. Butterfly looked like a hole for the U.S. entering the summer with Caeleb Dressel still working his way back into shape, but Rose’s emergence put the the U.S. in great position there. Here are the projected composite relays based on Fukuoka times (when applicable) or season-best times. Marchand’s 58.50 is a guess based on his form in other events. United States: Ryan Murphy 52.02 + Nic Fink 58.72 + Dare Rose 50.46 + Jack Alexy 47.31 = 3:28.51 Italy, the reigning world champions in this race, roll out the same foursome as took gold last year in Budapest, but swimmers like Ceccon and Martinenghi have been slightly off last year’s results, so a second golden effort would be a surprise. Italy might have to work hard just to reach the podium here. Instead, look for a race between the U.S. and China, a country which has never won a Worlds medal in the men’s medley relay. In fact, China’s only medals in a men’s relay ever at a World Championships were a pair of bronze medals in the 800 free relay 2011 and 2013 when Sun Yang and Wang Shun were each part of the squad. But largely thanks to Qin’s mastery, China will be in contention here until the end. If Qin can beat Fink by more than one second, as he did in the individual swim, China will like its chances. But if the first two legs mirror what happened in the mixed 400 medley relay, where the Chinese lead after Xu and Qin is less than a half-second, then the Americans will be in a strong position entering butterfly, likely allowing Rose to take command of the race and provide an advantage entering freestyle. We’ll see if France goes with that lineup, but Florent Manaudou’s struggles this week put a damper on what could be a relay very much in the mix. Australia, meanwhile, does not have the front half to match its rivals, so this might be the first relay all week where the Aussies don’t reach the podium. Of course, if Chalmers is anywhere close, watch out. He split 46.56 anchoring Australia’s world-title-winning men’s 400 free relay at the start of the week. The women’s 400 medley relay comes down to two teams, Australia and the United States. Sure, China and Canada each have elite butterfly swimmers with 100 fly world champion Zhang Yufei and silver medalist Maggie Mac Neil, respectively, but neither has the firepower on other legs to match up with the top two. The Americans entered the week with an enormous on-paper advantage in the medley relay thanks to breaststroke: Lilly King and Lydia Jacoby were favored to finish 1-2 in the 100 breast while Australia’s top two breaststroke options, Chelsea Hodges and Jenna Strauch, both missed Australian Trials with injuries, leaving 200 breast specialist Abbey Harkin to handle that leg. Well, the situation has changed somewhat this week, largely thanks to the incredible Aussie momentum that has produced 13 gold medals so far. Australia’s Kaylee McKeown swept the women’s backstroke events in Fukuoka — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto Kaylee McKeown swept all three backstroke events, and Mollie O’Callaghan is perhaps the swimmer of the meet with her five gold medals, including individual honors in the 100 and 200 free. And if the Aussies did not have O’Callaghan to anchor, they would have Shayna Jack, who swam a 52.08 relay leadoff and 51.53 relay anchor already this week. Emma McKeon has not reached any individual podiums this week, topping out at fourth in the 100 fly, but she is an excellent relay swimmer, while Harkin overperformed by making the semifinals of the 100 breast. For the United States, the bookend swimmers did enough this week that no concern is warranted. Regan Smith finished just behind McKeown in all three backstroke races while Kate Douglass placed fourth in the 100 free while winning gold in the 200 IM and silver in the 200 breast. But on breaststroke, the Americans will have a decision to make. Jacoby won bronze in the 100 breast while King shockingly fell to fourth, but King swam the top American time of the week with her 1:05.45 semifinal time. As for butterfly, Torri Huske won bronze in the individual 100 fly but swam a disappointing leg on the mixed 400 medley relay, splitting 58.19 to fall two-and-a-half seconds off her American record and more than one-and-a-half seconds behind her individual flat-start time earlier in the meet. If Huske were to replicate or slightly surpass her season-best time, the 56.18 she swam at U.S. Nationals, the Americans would be hard to beat, but that is no certainty given her mixed performances this week. If the U.S. coaches do not believe Huske can replicate that time, they might choose to move Douglass to butterfly (she went 56.43 at U.S. Nationals) and anchor with Abbey Weitzeil. That said, the highest-ceiling American relay involves Huske performing at her best. Here is the breakdown, based on every swimmer’s flat-start best time from this meet (with relay splits used for the Chinese and Canadian butterfly and freestyler swimmers): United States: Regan Smith 57.78 + Lilly King 1:05.45 + Torri Huske 56.61 + Kate Douglass 52.81 = 3:52.65 Extraordinarily close between the Americans and Aussies, so close that the relay victory is likely decided based on which team makes the fewest mistakes, which team manages to swim up to or exceed the level of their performance so far this week. Australia has been the team to do no wrong in its individual events and relays thus far, so we’ll see if momentum can carry this foursome to a relay sweep or if the Americans can respond.
China: Xu Jiayu 52.26 + Qin Haiyang 57.69 + Wang Changhao 51.78 + Pan Zhanle 47.22 = 3:28.95
France: Yohann Ndoye-Brouard 52.84 + Leon Marchand 58.50 + Maxime Grousset 50.14 + Florent Manaudou 48.12 = 3:29.60
Italy: Thomas Ceccon 52.16 + Nicolo Martinenghi 58.72 + Federico Burdisso 51.45 + Alessandro Miressi 47.45 = 3:30.31
Australia: Bradley Woodward 53.73 + Zac Stubblety-Cook 59.69 + Matt Temple 50.76 + Kyle Chalmers 47.15 = 3:31.32
Great Britain: Oliver Morgan 53.26 + James Wilby 59.54 + James Guy 51.43 + Matt Richards 47.45 = 3:31.68
Australia: Kaylee McKeown 57.53 + Abbey Harkin 1:06.88 + Emma McKeon 56.88 + Mollie O’Callaghan 52.08 = 3:53.37
China: Wan Letian 59.52 + Tang Qianting 1:07.15 + Zhang Yufei 55.69 + Cheng Yujie 53.39 = 3:55.75
Canada: Kylie Masse 59.06 + Sophie Angus 1:07.34 + Maggie Mac Neil 56.30 + Taylor Ruck 53.99 = 3:56.69
