Can Lana Pudar Continue to Narrow Gap on Top Butterfliers at World Junior Championships?
For the past two years, Lana Pudar has been on the verge of a breakthrough. The teenager representing Bosnia and Herzegovina was an Olympian at age 15, ending up 19th in the 100 butterfly at the Tokyo Olympics, and months later, she claimed bronze in the 200 fly at the Short Course World Championships. Over the past three years, her results at the European Junior Championships have included nine medals, with six gold and three silver medals, all in butterfly events.
But the podium at major long course meets has narrowly eluded Pudar. After swimming times of 56.95 in the 100 fly and 2:06.26 in the 200 fly at this year’s European Junior meet in early July, Pudar went to Fukuoka, Japan, with a real shot at a medal when challenging the world’s best. Perhaps not in the exceptionally deep 100 fly but surely in the 200 fly, considered one of the weaker events on the international scene.
And she came close: after narrowly missing the 100 fly final at Worlds, Pudar was the top seed entering the 200 fly final and swam in the top three throughout the entire race. But on the final length, Pudar had the slowest split in the field as she faded to fourth, a half-second behind bronze medalist Regan Smith but eight tenths off the time she swam weeks earlier at European Juniors.
Pudar is 17, seven months older than the woman who has won the last two world titles in the 200 fly, although it’s unfair to compare her to the likes of Summer McIntosh. But while the Canadian is the favorite for Olympic gold in the 200 fly next year while American Regan Smith and Australian Lizzie Dekkers will be tough, Pudar will have a real chance if she can make small improvements over the next year and bring her best swim in the right moment. A medal would be the first ever for Boznia and Herzegovina in swimming at the Olympics.
First, though, Pudar, will be heavily favored to earn her first gold medals at a global meet, albeit at the World Junior Championships in Netanya, Israel. Pudar is seeded first in all three butterfly events next week, entering with a one-second advantage over 100 meters and a margin of 3.5 seconds clear of the field in the 200-meter races. With gold in sight, Pudar will be focused on laying down markers, times quick enough to send a message to her competition on the senior level that will be standing in her way at the Olympics.
Can she get her 200 fly under 2:06? Only five other women have been that fast in the past four years, with Olympic champion Zhang Yufei and American veteran Hali Flickinger also in that range. A 2:05 will send a scare.
Introducing Petar Mitsin
This 17-year-old Bulgarian was not present at the senior-level World Championships earlier this year, but Petar Mitsin swam a 400 free time at the European Junior Championships that would have been fast enough to reach a loaded final in the event at Worlds. That gold was one of three he earned in Belgrade, along with the 200 and 800-meter events. Now, Mitsin gets a chance on a bigger stage in Netanya as the favorite for gold in the 400 and 800 free while holding down the second seed entering the meet in the 200 free and 200 fly.
Mitsin’s showdown with Australia’s Flynn Southam in the 200 free could be one of the most intriguing of the meet, with Southam having been sub-48 in the 100 free this year before narrowly missing the individual final in Fukuoka and helping the Aussies to a 400 free relay world title. Mitsin, meanwhile, swam a time of 3:44.31 to beat the world junior record established by Aussie Mack Horton two years before he won Olympic gold.
Sure, it took under 3:43 to reach the podium in the 400 free at Worlds, with Sam Short and Ahmed Hafnaoui reaching 3:40-territory in a duel for gold, but remember that Mitsin is more than two years younger than any of the men who swam in that Worlds final. As he moves into his prime, he could continue making those huge drops to get into senior-level contention. Mitsin’s initial breakout took place on the continental level, so another sterling showing at the World Junior meet (during an otherwise-light time on the swimming calendar) could boost his profile.
Who’s Next for Team USA?
Leah Hayes — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
We’d be surprised if at least one member of the U.S. team competing at the World Juniors meet does not jump to the senior level in time for next year’s Tokyo Olympics. An obvious candidate is Leah Hayes, already a medalist at the senior-level Worlds last year when she won bronze in the 200 IM behind Alex Walsh and Kaylee McKeown. In 2023, Hayes faced a tough task in returning to the senior global level in the event as Kate Douglass added the medley back to her program (and promptly won a world title), but Hayes was also well off her best at U.S. Nationals two months ago.
But in Netanya, Hayes will have a huge opportunity to play a central role on the American squad, with the top seed in both medley events plus the third seed in the 200 free. She will be the central piece on most (if not all) American relays. Rebound performances and multiple junior-level gold medals will set her up well entering the Olympic season.
We’ll be watching to see how Teagan O’Dell comes through in her first global meet, where she is the top seed in the 100 and 200 backstrokes, but perhaps more intriguing is the U.S. men’s roster led by Daniel Diehl and Maximus Williamson. After Thomas Heilman made the jump onto the senior level this year, both Diel and Williamson could be close behind after their experience in Israel.
Just like Hayes, these two swimmers will busy on relays, and individually, Williamson is seeded first in the 200 IM and second in the 100 free while Diehl is tops in the 100 back and set to contend in the 50 and 200 back, 100 free and 200 IM. We’ll be watching to see how they perform under pressure and also their battles against the clock, with times close to the top of the pack in America a strong springboard on which to build with less than 10 months to go before Olympic Trials.