Assessing the U.S. Men in the Six Non-Medal Events from Tokyo Olympics
At the Tokyo Olympics, the U.S. men captured 10 individual medals in swimming along with gold medals in the 400 freestyle and 400 medley relays. The top performer was Caeleb Dressel, who won three individual gold medals in the 50 and 100 freestyle as well as the 100 butterfly. Bobby Finke was the surprise gold medalist in both the 800 and 1500 free, and the only other swimmer to win multiple individual medals was Ryan Murphy, who was on the podium in both backstroke races.
The 10 individual medals by the U.S. men came in nine events (including a 1-2 finish in the 400 IM), and that left five individual events where the Americans finished off the podium. In addition, the U.S. men’s 800 free relay became the first-ever American relay to miss an Olympic podium altogether (not counting the first women’s relay ever contested at the Olympics in 1912, when the Americans did not enter a team).
With the World Championship Trials coming up next week in Greensboro, N.C., how do the Americans stack up in those six non-podium events? Did an American swimmer just miss the podium in Tokyo to set up the nation well for the new (and shortened) quadrennium? Or is this an event where the U.S. men have shown significant weakness over the past few years?
200 Butterfly
Going back to 2004, the number of U.S. men who have won an Olympic or World Championship medal in the 200 fly is one — and of course, that would be Michael Phelps. Phelps retired after he won his third Olympic gold medal in the event in dramatic fashion in 2016, and since then, no Americans have put together the sort of swim needed to really contend internationally. The top American in recent years has been Zach Harting, who claimed bronze in the 200 fly at the 2018 Pan Pacific Championships and then finished sixth at the 2019 World Championships.
Harting was the 200 fly winner at Olympic Trials last year, but he finished ninth in Tokyo, four hundredths outside of the final. The other U.S. Olympian in the event was Gunnar Bentz, who took seventh in the Olympic final but retired from swimming after that race.
The best hope for the Americans right now is 20-year-old Luca Urlando, who swam a 1:53.84 in the 200 fly in 2019. Urlando is the 13th-fastest performer in history, and that time would have been good enough to earn a bronze medal at the Tokyo Olympics, but he has not approached that mark since. He was impressive at the NCAA Championships last month, where he placed second in both butterfly events (in short course yards) and third in the 200 IM. He also set an American record in the 100-yard backstroke. Urlando could take the next step in his career at Trials.
Aside from Urlando and Harting, the top contenders in Greensboro should be Trenton Julian, who placed fourth at Olympic Trials and had the fastest time by an American last year (1:54.71), and Chase Kalisz, the Tokyo gold medalist in the 400 IM. But it’s tough to see anyone outside of Urlando putting themselves in medal-contending position for this summer’s World Championships.
200 Freestyle
Kieran Smith finished sixth at the Olympics in the 200 freestyle — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
This event loses some veterans from previous years as 2017 World Championships silver medalist Townley Haas and 2018 national champion Andrew Seliskar both announced their retirement. But in recent years, Kieran Smith has been the top swimmer in the country in this event. Smith finished sixth in the Olympic final in this event last year after entering as the No. 2 qualifier, and he led off the American men’s 800 free relay in an impressive 1:44.74. That time is right in the mix for contending for international medals.
But Smith was well off his best form at the NCAA Championships last month as he fell to fourth place in the 200 free. Drew Kibler, a relay swimmer for the U.S. at the Tokyo Games, was the winner at the NCAA Championships, and he’s the only other swimmer competing in Greensboro who has ever been under 1:46 — but he remains a long distance away from the 1:44-range.
Barring any surprise, the only legitimate medal contender the Americans have here is Smith, provided he can return to his best form by the World Championships in Budapest in June.
200 Breaststroke
The only American to swim in the 200 breast final in Tokyo was 28-year-old Nic Fink, who finished fifth, eight tenths off the podium. Fink has admitted that his future in the sport beyond this year is uncertain, but he is coming off a brilliant fall in which he captured the short course world title in this event. Fink probably is capable of a 2:07-mid performance or better, but making the jump to podium status could be tricky if it requires a 2:07-low or 2:06-high.
Fink’s Olympic teammate in this event, Andrew Wilson, has not competed since Tokyo, and the favorite for the No. 2 spot this year is Will Licon, a 27-year-old who was the Pan American Games champion in this event and the bronze medalist at the Short Course World Championships, but Licon has never qualified for the top-level U.S. team. He has missed two straight Olympic teams by razor-thin margins, 0.14 in 2016 and 0.18 in 2021.
The Americans are undoubtedly hoping some high-ceiling talent to break through, but one of the best U.S. hopes in this event, teenager Matt Fallon, is not expected to compete next week in Greensboro. Fallon was the top qualifier in the 200 breast at Olympic Trials before falling off the pace in the final. It would be no surprise if this event looks much different in 2023 than in 2022.
100 Breaststroke
Michael Andrew just missed the Olympic podium in the 100 breaststroke and 200 IM — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
The U.S. men were shut out of breaststroke medals at the Tokyo Olympics, but in the 100-meter distance, there is an American man with strong potential to contend internationally. That is Michael Andrew, who ranks third all-time in the event with his American record of 58.14 from the semifinals at Olympic Trials. Andrew placed fourth in this event in Tokyo, finishing seven tenths off his best time. For Andrew, his key is simply performing his best in the biggest moments, which did not happen in two of his three individual Olympic finals.
In addition to his 200 breaststroke short course world title, Nic Fink was the bronze medalist in the 100 breast and gold medalist in the 50 breast at Short Course Worlds, but neither he nor any other American has shown close to the speed necessary to be in the medal hunt in a full-strength field.
200 IM
At the 2016 Olympics, Michael Phelps won his fourth straight gold medal in the 200 IM, becoming the only swimmer (male or female) to ever accomplish such a feat. In between Phelps’ Olympic wins, Ryan Lochte became only the second man in history to win four straight world titles in the event. With the Phelps-Lochte era over by the Tokyo Olympics, the U.S. men finished off the podium completely.
Michael Andrew entered the Olympics with the fastest time in the world (1:55.26), but his weakness was the closing freestyle leg. At Olympic Trials, Andrew had been more than a second under world-record pace at the 150-meter mark, only to fade badly down the stretch. In the Olympic final, Andrew was in first place with 50 meters to go, but he fell all the way to fifth place. His freestyle split was more than a second-and-a-half slower than anyone else in the field. Andrew has the talent in this event — his top time in 2021 would have been good enough for silver in Tokyo — but not the consistency in big moments.
However, Andrew may not even swim the 200 IM at this year’s Trials since the event will be just before the 50 freestyle on the final night of competition. We’ll see if Andrew goes for the double. If not, the favorites to qualify for the U.S. team will be 2017 world champion Chase Kalisz and the versatile Shaine Casas, who swam an impressive 1:56.70 at the TYR Pro Swim Series in San Antonio earlier this month, a time that would have been quick enough to make the Olympic team. It would be no surprise to see Casas or Kalisz emerge as a World Championships medal contender next week.
800 Freestyle Relay
After capturing four straight gold medals in this event, the Americans entered the Olympic final of the 800 free relay at risk for missing the medal podium altogether. Kieran Smith and Drew Kibler put together strong opening legs to put the Americans in a strong position, but Zach Apple struggled mightily on the third leg, and anchor Townley Haas could not get back into the top-three.
The good news for the U.S. men regarding the 2022 World Championships is one of the medal-winning teams from the Tokyo final will be totally absent. No Russian athletes will be competing in Budapest as a result of their country’s invasion of Ukraine, so the Americans will have a strong shot at bronze or perhaps even silver. Smith and Kibler are expected to be the headliners for this group, and swimmers such as Carson Foster and Luca Urlando could move into contributing roles this year. Perhaps this is the year when Caeleb Dressel jumps into the mix for the 800 free relay as well.
But if the Americans hope to return to gold-medal contention by the time the 2024 Olympics roll around, there is a long way to go. Great Britain has multiple swimmers capable of 1:44s from a flat start, while only one American (Smith) has been that fast in almost a decade. The search is on for 200 freestyle specialists with big potential to bolster this quartet.
For Michael Andrew to become a true international contender, he needs to train harder. Speed work, alone, will not do it.
To be a great 200 IMer, he needs to train differently, not harder.