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By David Rieder
The United States has not had the greatest success with the men’s 400 free relay as of late. Since Jason Lezak’s heroic anchor leg at the 2008 Olympics and another memorable win at the World Championships a year later, the Americans have an 0-for-gold streak running in the event.
Yannick Agnel overtook Ryan Lochte to win gold at the 2012 Olympics, and at last year’s World Championships, the American men failed to make the final. Shouldn’t fans be panicked about the squad’s hopes for this year?
Jimmy Feigen says no. The silver medalist in the 100 free at the 2013 World Championships and a member of last year’s 12th-place squad, Feigen expects to see the sprinters rebound at Olympic Trials.
“The 100 in the USA has been seen as a little bit weak in the past, and even now it’s been seen as a little bit weak. I’m for sure partly for blame,” he said. “I think we’re really gonna come out here and shock some people at Trials and at the Olympics. I have full faith in the USA—not overconfidence, not cockiness. We’re the underdog, and I think we love being the underdog.”
Will he be right? Read through the bold predictions for day five to find out!
1. Four men swim under 2:09 in the 200 breast—and it will take under 2:10 to make the final.
In my head, I’ve made justifications for five guys to break 2:09, but picking even four still feels radical. Obviously it won’t be too crazy to see Kevin Cordes under the 2:09 barrier—he’s been as fast as 2:07.86 at Nationals in 2014, and he was the silver medalist in the event at the World Championships last summer. He seems primed for a breakout in the 100 breast, but he is already at that elite level in the 200.
Josh Prenot and Nic Fink have both swum in the 2:08-range over the last year, and Cody Miller comes in just behind with an entry time of 2:09.08. Then there’s Will Licon, who won this year’s NCAA title in the 200-yard breast in 1:48.12, cutting a half-second off Cordes’ American record in the event and beating Prenot by more than a second. Licon is strong off the walls, but he has more in the tank for long course than his 2:10.02 entry time suggests.
Everyone’s favorite darkhorse in this event is Reece Whitley, and the 6’8” 16-year-old could make an impact here. He enters with a seed time of 2:11.30, swum in winning the B-final at last year’s Summer Nationals. After Whitley realized that he and Michael Phelps had swum the exact same time in the event, he posed for a picture with the twice-his-age but still-shorter 18-time Olympic gold medalist.
Photo Courtesy: David Rieder
Whitley should have a nice time drop in him in Omaha to get down under the 2:10 barrier and get into the final. Whitley has received much deserved attention from the mainstream media, but it would still be quite an upset to see him on the Olympic team this time around.
2. Schedule of events takes possible contenders out of the women’s 200 fly.
Cammile Adams undoubtedly enters Olympic Trials as the big favorite to win the women’s 200 fly after winning silver in the event at the World Championships last summer, while there are questions surrounding fellow World Championship finalist Katie McLaughlin after a neck injury derailed her freshman season at California.
With that in mind, the second spot on the Olympic team looks be wide-open, and two names I strongly considered picking to finish there were Stanford products Maya DiRado and Ella Eastin. But I don’t think either one is going to swim the event.
That’s because the 200 fly semifinals will happen just minutes before the 200 IM final on day four, with only the men’s 200 breast semis in between. If you read my bold predictions for day four, you might recall that I picked both DiRado and Eastin to do rather well in the 200 IM.
Any swimmer would agree that racing a 200 fly with less than a half-hour to recover is less-than-ideal preparation for one of the biggest races of one’s life. And since both women will have much better chances in the 200 IM, I expect that to be their focus. I have a feeling McLaughlin, Kelsi Worrell, Hali Flickinger, Christina Bechtel and others will not be complaining.
3. Two men will go under 48 in the 100 free, and it will take 48.6 or better to make the final.
My picks to finish first and second in the 100 free at Olympic Trials will surprise very few. One is the defending Olympic gold medalist who already holds the fifth-best time in the world this year at 48.00. The other swam the fastest times in history in both the 50 and 100-yard freestyle at the NCAA Championships in March after winning both the 50 and 100-meter free at Summer Nationals last year. His rapid improvement over the past two years has indicated that he has some serious potential for a 47 at Trials.
If you don’t know who I’m referring to, just see the race picks below.
But of just as much interest will be places three through six as the Americans try to get back on top of the podium in the 400 free relay. Perhaps a dozen men have a chance at getting on this relay. The battle for spots in the top-eight should be fierce—but I predict that the times will be slower in the final when eight men are fighting for six spots.
The inevitably-choppy water will contribute to the sluggish times, but there’s nothing that says someone has to swim their best in the final to claim an Olympic relay spot. Nope. Just make sure you beat two people, and you’re going to Rio.
Race Picks:
Men’s 200 Breast
1. Kevin Cordes
2. Will Licon
Women’s 200 Fly
1. Cammile Adams
2. Hali Flickinger
Men’s 100 Free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Caeleb Dressel
3. Jimmy Feigen
4. Jack Conger
5. Matt Grevers
6. Michael Chadwick
Check out our 3 Bold Predictions for each day of U.S. Olympic Trials:
Day One
Day Two
Day Three
Day Four
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“Getting on the podium” in the 400 free relay is as much about coaching decisions as it is about fast swimming. It seems that the USA team last summer was a little over confident in not using their best four in the preliminary round, thus not making the final. More careful calculations must be done now that the rest of the world is catching us in speed and depth.
I would love to see Conger top 6 in the 100 FR finals, but on Day 4 the 100 FR semi Final is right before the 200 FL Final. My guess is both Conger and Phelps race the 100 FR in prelims to post a time then scratch semi finals. Hopefully Jack places top 6 in the 200 FR finals.
Good point, Ande. Totally my bad for missing that one. Guess that opens up a spot.
Slight disagreement in the 200 breast. While I think Cordes has one of the spots locked up, I think Josh Prenot can grab the second spot. A better long course swimmer than short course, especially in breaststroke, and he’s be very consistent, including a 2:08 at WUGs last summer and at Orlando in March. Licon still has some to prove in long course.
To me, this is one going to be on of the best races of the trials. Love all your predictions David!
I would agree with you that Prenot is the favorite for the second spot. Just have the vivid memory of what Licon did in that 200 breast at NCAAs.
And frankly, these would be too boring if I picked chalk every time. But nothing personal to anyone who I don’t pick. It’s funny considering the “rivalry” they have, but Licon and Prenot are actually good friends.
That photo of Reece and Michael is amazing, Michael is listed at 6′ 4″ so either he is standing in a hole or Reece is even bigger than 6′ 8″. Phelps 200 breast is the fastest ever swam by someone who does the 400 IM (or used to). My own prediction is it will take a 2:08 to make semi-finals and 2:06 to make the podium at the Olympics. Not sure an American will be there.
Kevin Cordes has the stroke technique to do it, just hasn’t swum as well lately as he should. Reece will be 2:07 next year and 2:06 in 2018.
If you watch Josh Prenot swim the 200 meter breast, you’ll see how he knows exactly how to pace himself.
He won the Orlando and Santa Clara Arena meets easily, by two seconds. He led both races the entire way.
It’s his best chance to make the Olympic team.
I agree. I think Prenot has the ability to get a spot. However, Nic Fink and Cody Miller both have more international experience. Apart from the University games, the olympics will be his first “real” test. A difficult prelim, an even harder semi-final, and if he gets there, an unbelievable final. I still think he might get a spot, but all together I have my doubts of whether he can handle it.
I still pick McLaughlin to take the 2nd spot in the 200 fly. But I would pick bayer over worrel or Bechdel….
No Michael Phelps or Ryan Lochte in the 400FR? I think that is a mistake. They will both undoubtedly make the Olympic team, and if somehow Feigen or Grevers (or both) go sub 48, then Ryan Lochte won’t be on the team. However, with Phelps being the second fastest American ever, posting anything under 48.3 at trials will get him a spot in the Olympic final for sure.
No Michael Phelps or Ryan Lochte in the 400FR? I think that is a mistake. They will both undoubtedly make the Olympic team, and if somehow Feigen or Grevers (or both) go sub 48, then Ryan Lochte won’t be on the team. However, with Phelps being the second fastest American ever, posting anything under 48.3 at trials will get him a spot in the Olympic final for sure. Also, while it’s not exactly “exciting”, I must agree that Will Licon almost doesn’t stand a chance at trials. Cordes aside, Nic Fink has been 2:08, Josh Prenot has been 2:08, and Cody Miller has been 2:09 and on a role. I just can’t see it happening. Plus, (apart from Josh Prenot) they have way more international experience than Licon which plays an important role in my opinion.
Responding to several comments here, mostly Alex’s:
First off, no, I don’t see Phelps or Lochte in the 100 free final. Phelps most definitely not because 100 free semis come right before 200 fly final. Lochte, I’m suddenly less sure. If he doesn’t swim the 200 back (as I predict), the 100 free final is before the 200 IM semis, so maybe he would consider going all the way through. Surely making it back in the IM would not be a problem for him.
As for the 200 breast, I expect a lot of guys to be right there.
Alex, I think you’re overvaluing international experience here and also not realizing quite how unpredictable Trials can be. Consider: Scott Spann won the 200 breast in 2008 and Scott Weltz in 2012. They were on nobody’s radar coming in (especially Weltz). Licon has shown that there’s a lot left in the tank from his 2:10 last year. He did tell me had mono a few weeks before that, and from personal experience, I can vouch for the fact that it takes awhile to bounce back fully, especially for an event like a long course 200. I could see that event going a lot of different ways among Cordes, Prenot, Licon, Fink, maybe Miller.
First off, sorry for all the posts, I kept getting notifications that it wasn’t sending, so I kept trying. And sorry for the confusion, I wasn’t thinking of Phelps or Lochte swimming a prelim and then scratching for a final to save themselves. But, apart from Nathan Adrian, Phelps and Lochte are absolutely necessary if they want to get to the podium, no question about it. I’ve talked to Jimmy Feigen and I think he is a safe bet for a prelim swim, and of course depending on Caeleb Dressel’s swim at trials maybe a finals swim. Basically, I think for this race (as well as a few others), inconsistency will be our worst enemy.
My concern with international experience stems from the transitions from prelims, to semis, to finals. For Licon, it has only ever been a prelim and a final, just two swims. I wouldn’t be surprised if in prelims he goes a 2:10, a 2:08 in semis, and a 2:10 in finals as ridiculous as that sounds. Thoughts?
In the 200 breaststroke, so much depends on the final 50.
For the second spot at the 2012 Trials, it came down to the final stroke and the touch.
Clark Burckle did an above-the-water finish to speed up his touch and that was the difference between Burckle and Shanteau.
Nic Fink and Josh Prenot are both fast closers. Nic has said “A lot of people really hurt that last 50.”
In the 200 breaststroke, so much depends on the final 50.
For the second spot at the 2012 Trials, it came down to the final stroke and the touch.
Clark Burckle did an above-the-water finish to speed up his touch, and that was the difference between Burckle and Shanteau.
Nic Fink and Josh Prenot are both fast closers. Nic has said “A lot of people really hurt that last 50.”