2021 Trials Vision: Can Ryan Lochte Make Fifth Straight Olympics in 200 IM?

Ryan Lochte. Photo Courtesy: Connor Trimble

Ryan Lochte looking to join elite group of five-time Olympians.

Each day during the pre-scheduled days of the 2020 US Olympic Trials, Swimming World will take its readers back four years to the 2016 Trials in Omaha to recap each event, and will offer some insight into what the events will look like in 2021.

What does the 200 IM look like in the post-Michael Phelps era? The winner of the last four Olympic gold medals will not be back to pursue a fifth straight gold. But his longtime rival and current world record holder Ryan Lochte will be in Omaha vying for his fifth Olympic team – which would make him the third American swimmer to do so after Phelps and Dara Torres.

There is a lot at stake with Lochte going all-in on the 200 IM on day six. Can he erase the memories of 2016 and the infamous Rio gas station scandal? Can he wipe away the stain of the 2018 USADA ban? Can he recover from a year-long Olympic postponement? If he does make it, it will be huge. Not just for Lochte but for the sport as a whole. But there are others that figure to be heavier favorites – which is hard to believe based on Lochte’s accolades, but let’s get into those.

The Favorite

Chase Kalisz; Photo Courtesy: Becca Wyant

Chase Kalisz was the 2017 World champion and was deemed to be sort of “the chosen one” after Phelps had retired. He kept the World Championships gold medal streak alive in 2017 in this event as Kalisz won the eighth straight American gold in Budapest three years ago.

But that streak was snapped last summer when Kalisz finished third in Gwangju. Since September, Kalisz has been the fourth fastest in the world with a 1:57.28 and he has been the face of IM in the U.S. the last three years. It is hard to imagine a scenario where he does not make the team in this event.

The Contenders

Ryan Lochte. Photo Courtesy: Connor Trimble

Ryan Lochte looked solid in December with a 1:58.89 at the U.S. Open in December, putting him 11th in the world and fifth among Americans. He was the national champion last summer and even he admitted that he wasn’t training at his full potential. After all, he is now a father of two and has to juggle fatherhood with being a professional swimmer. But he has showed he is fully focused ahead of next year’s Trials. He has taken on underdog status – he is 35, has had some financial struggles since Rio, and hasn’t been on a major USA team in four years. But this is Ryan Lochte we are talking about. He has always managed to step up when needed most, and it will be foolish to count him out next year.

Carson Foster. Photo Courtesy: Connor Trimble

Rising star Carson Foster has been on a roll the last 12 months. The 18-year-old was the world junior champion last summer and had been swimming lights out this fall. In December, he was a 1:57.59 at the U.S. Open, giving Kalisz all he could handle for 200 meters. Foster has been a popular pick as a “star for the future” and he was showing glimpses of that before the COVID shutdowns. He will be a freshman this fall at the University of Texas where he will be joining the team that was seeded to win the national title in 2020. Like many of the young teenagers in the U.S., his stock may rise with an extra year to prepare for Trials.

The biggest mystery here is Michael Andrew, who was another popular swimmer dubbed as a “star for the future” as a multi-national age group record holder. He does not have a weak stroke, by virtue of his appearance in all four finals of the four 50s at World Championships last year. It is just a matter of putting them all together in one race. When Andrew is on, he is great. He was a 1:56.83 at the TYR Pro Swim Series in March, which is the fastest among all Americans since September.

The problem for Andrew is that the event order is back loaded for sprinters, so on the day of the 200 IM final he will also have the semi-finials in the 100 fly and 50 free. He will have to make a decision of which event to pursue – with the 50 perhaps being his best shot. The 200 IM is a definite possibility for him, it is just a matter of where his priorities are in terms of events.

The number two 200 IM’er the last few years has been Abrahm DeVine, who finished eighth at the World Championships last year. DeVine has been a consistent performer, getting better each year. He has the experience of performing at the World Championships, and he also won two NCAA titles in the 400 IM. Even though his in-season swims as of late have not been up to par with some of his peers, don’t count him out at Trials if he is in the final.

Andrew Seliskar. Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick

Andrew Seliskar has almost taken on underdog status in this event which is hard to believe. He has had the most success in the 200 free the last couple years, but he became well-known as an age group swimmer for his IM prowess. Seliskar was the 2015 national high school swimmer of the year by this publication and was the CSCAA swimmer of the year in his senior season at Cal, helping the Golden Bears to a national title. He had been swimming really well as of late, by virtue of his 1:58.01 in March at the TYR Pro Swim Series. He finished seventh at Trials four years ago, and definitely has an opportunity to move up. He, like Michael Andrew, doesn’t have a weak stroke, and that will pay dividends for him in this event.

The Longshots

Texas A&M’s Shaine Casas will likely factor into either this event or the 200 back, which fall on the same night at Trials. He will likely pick the 200 back but if he does choose to do this event, he should not be counted out.

Kieran Smith has had a breakout season with some very impressive swims in yards in the 200 & 500 free which made him a contender to make next year’s team in freestyle events. But Smith started out his career as an IM’er, winning the silver in this event at the 2017 World Juniors. That 200 IM speed has not gone away, and with a race that can go a number of different ways like this one, he could factor into the top two.

Texas guys John Shebat, Matthew Willenbring and Jake Foster could also factor into the final with an extra year of preparation. Foster will be in his sophomore year where a lot of guys see vast improvements in their careers. Willenbring had a big sophomore season, but hasn’t been able to translate that to long course yet.

Looking Ahead to Tokyo

Michael Phelps has won four straight Olympic gold medals in this event as the Americans have won every year since 2004. You have to go back all the way to Massi Rosolino in 2000 as the last non-American winner, so there will be a lot at stake for the American representatives in this event.

2021 Trials Vision

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Betsy Perkins

3 years ago

Yes ??

Brian Culver

3 years ago

IDK there are some very talented young swimmers out there. I hope he makes it.

Celeste Lind

3 years ago

If he does, we in Florida will be very proud of our Home Boy! (Along with Caleb Dressel and Ryan Murphy!)

John Ian Bobbitt

3 years ago

Reply to Celeste Lind

Celeste Lind really? I mean… really?

Celeste Lind

3 years ago

Reply to Celeste Lind

John Ian Bobbitt , well he IS from Florida, and he DID make the Olympics. Even if he is “old”. Dara Torres was 40ish her last Olympiad, so why not?

John Ian Bobbitt

3 years ago

Reply to Celeste Lind

Celeste Lind has nothing at all to do with his age. Aside from amy Vandyken, dara’s my fav all-time. But…

Ummmmm… did you happen to follow the last olympics? I don’t necessarily mean the way he presents on camera…. I mean the whole… :::sigh::: I don’t even wanna burst your bubble if you didn’t catch the embarrassment he caused us and team USA. Best I can say… google it ?

Celeste Lind

3 years ago

Reply to Celeste Lind

John Ian Bobbitt yes yes I know. In fact my son spent a year under his father’s tutelage at Daytona State – very aware. Have you ever met Ryan? He is the nicest “kid”, really. Immature, ok, stupid sometimes, ok, but I still like the guy.

John Ian Bobbitt

3 years ago

Reply to Celeste Lind

Celeste Lind okay okay. I’ll accept your assessment….

But geez, y’all have a helluva selection of great swimmers over there to be proud of. I just can’t picture ryan lochte and being the poster child. Bearing in mind, that the only reason he got out of Rio is because he literally FLED. And he got lucky they didn’t extradite him back which they had every right to do. In which case… we wouldn’t even be here.

But I’m not here to rake him over the coals. He does that to himself enough, for gods sake. And I hope he kicks butt in the comming season, but I also can’t put his athleticism and jovial personality over his behavior. It tells the tadpoles that if you’re a beast, you get away with anything. And that’s just not the case. After all that foolishness, I’d like to see several FL kids take the leadership reigns who are rediculous fast AND know that when they’re representing their country to be in their best behavior.

Again, not trying to shoot you down Mrs. Lind… have a great day

Celeste Lind

3 years ago

Reply to Celeste Lind

John Ian Bobbitt , personally I don’t think he’ll make it. But it would be an impressive feat of athleticism if he did, right? And I feel the same as you do about his shenanigans, AND I think it’s time for someone else to earn a few medals. And I do NOT think of Ryan as the poster child. I think right now I prefer Dressel and Murphy. Unless you know something that I don’t.

John Ian Bobbitt

3 years ago

Reply to Celeste Lind

Celeste Lind only thing I know… is that I could no longer do a 100 fly if my life depended on it, and I had a jet pack up my butt. So I’ll leave it to those better suited.

That… and I STILL believe I’ll see Amy VanDyken will swim again before I die. ?