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By David Rieder
For the first time this year, USA Swimming allowed swimmers competing at the World Championships to also compete at the World University Games if they did not qualify to go to Kazan in any individual Olympic event. For several on the American team at WUGs, this means two trips to the other side of the world in a span barely longer than a month but also a chance to show what they can do before the pressure-cooker of the World Championships.
The women’s 100 free featured a pair of Americans on top two spots on the podium, both of whom have plane tickets to Kazan waiting almost as soon as they return home. Shannon Vreeland won the event in 54.39, while Abbey Weitzeil took second in 54.53. Both have been faster, though, as Vreeland swam a 53.83 in 2013, while Weitzeil clocked in at 54.38 a year ago at U.S. Nationals.
The two, along with Margo Geer and Lia Neal, will compete to join Simone Manuel and Missy Franklin on the finals team for the 400 free relay at next month’s World Championships. The Americans won the gold in the event in 2013, but they lose Natalie Coughlin and Megan Romano from that squad, and they face an uphill battle against the Australians, who set the world record in the event at last year’s Commonwealth Games.
Photo Courtesy: Gwangju Summer Universiade Organizing Committee
How exactly do the Americans stack up? Below are the composite times of the top contending relays based on their best times in the world this year. Because Franklin and Manuel have yet to compete in the event at a championship meet in 2015, their top times from 2014 will be used.
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Clearly, the Australians look like the favorites as they return the same foursome that clocked a world record-time of 3:30.98 last year. Heemskerk and Kromowidjojo have long been quality relay swimmers, having contributed to an Olympic gold medal-winning team in 2008 and World championship squads in 2009 and 2011.
The Americans, meanwhile, will count on superstar performances from Manuel and Franklin. Both are coming off fantastic NCAA seasons, where Manuel won the 100 free at NCAAs in a mind-boggling 46.09 − which converts to a 52.14 in long course. However, short course yards speed isn’t always indicative of long course speed, and Manuel and Franklin have not yet proven they can answer the speed of the Campbell sisters.
But even if Manuel and Franklin deliver, the middle legs of the relay can’t yet match up to Australia’s third and fourth swimmers. Between veteran Melanie Wright (nee Schlanger) and rising star Emma McKeon, Australia has two swimmers who consistently swim a second faster than what Vreeland and Weitzeil delivered today. Unless they (or Neal or Geer) have miraculous drops in a month, the U.S. team should be in a battle for silver in Kazan, and nothing more.
Photo Courtesy: Griffin Scott
Meanwhile, on the men’s side, Reed Malone and Clay Youngquist finished 1-2 in the men’s 200 free, and like Vreeland and Weitzeil, both men will pull double duty on the 800 free relay at next month’s World Championships. Both Malone and Youngquist swam lifetime best times today, and next, the two will compete with Michael Weiss and Michael Klueh for spots on the finals squad at Worlds.
Ryan Lochte and Conor Dwyer will compete for the U.S. in the individual event at Worlds and are guaranteed spots on the finals relay. Again, let’s check out the composite times of the top contenders for the 800 free relay. All times listed here come from 2015 with the exception of Lochte and Dwyer, each of whom has yet to compete in a championship meet; their times will be from 2014.
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Ok, so there’s a lot to digest here. Three major names are absent from this analysis: Michael Phelps, Matt McLean, and Kosuke Hagino. Phelps was kicked off the World Championship team after his DUI arrest last fall, while McLean and Hagino both withdrew from the meet with injuries. Japan had the number two-ranked team in the world last year, but that team look far weaker without Hagino, who had already clocked a 1:45.82 this year, a time that ranks third in the world.
The Americans look vulnerable on paper, especially since they are assured that two of their four swimmers will have never competed on a relay at this high level. However, they can expect more from Lochte and Dwyer, who both underwhelmed in the event last year. Dwyer was the silver medalist in the 200 free at the 2013 Worlds, where he finished in 1:45.32, while Lochte won the event back in 2011 with a 1:44.44.
The Japanese challenged a full-strength American squad at Pan Pacs last year, finishing just 0.13 behind, but the U.S. still deserves the mantle of favorite, especially in a field absent Hagino. While strong on paper, the Australians (aside, of course, from Grant Hackett) and British both send very inexperienced squads to battle; only 2 of the 4 Britons (Guy and Renwick) swam in this relay two years ago, while Australia did not even make the final in Barcelona in 2013.
But all of these stats and hypotheses mean nothing until the relays get into the water at Worlds. Most of these squads will have never swum together before as a foursome (with the major exception of the Aussie women in the 400 free relay) and could struggle to gel immediately. But with only a year left until the Olympics, the majority of the teams competing at Worlds will be gearing up to chase a bigger prize 12 months later.
An earlier version of this article incorrectly omitted Grant Hackett from the numbers for Australia’s men’s 800 free relay.
You left out Grant Hackett for the Aussie squad. He’s been 1:46 this year
You are correct. His numbers are missing from FINA’s world rankings. Since been updated. Few tenths difference, but (obviously) still first.
They did this in 2013 as well. Chelsea Chenault and Megan Romano attended both
True, Chenault and Romano were on both teams (Romano’s relay heroics at World Champs were proceeded by similar ones at WUGs). But they selected the ’13 WUGs team at the 2012 U.S. Open (which overlapped with the Olympics). So you’ll note that there were no 2012 Olympians on the 2013 WUGs team. And in 2013, WUGs actually proceeded Nationals, so those that swam there got back to Indy in time to qualify for Barcelona.