Editorial content for the NCAA Division I Championships is sponsored by Nike Swim. For full Swimming World coverage, check out our coverage page.
By David Rieder
DURHAM – Last week, everyone pretty much knew what was coming. Entering the women’s NCAA Championships, California had over a 100-point edge based on psych sheet seedings. Georgia, the defending champion, would be the only team in position to possibly make the meet interesting, as they did for three sessions before the Golden Bears broke the meet open.
Individually, very few events were truly “wide open.” Missy Franklin was always going to be hard to beat in her individual events, with Elizabeth Pelton the only challenger based on the psych sheet. Simone Manuel looked like the big favorite in the sprints, and Kelsi Worrell had set herself up to challenge the American record in the 100 fly and potentially win the 200 fly as well.
Ok, so maybe you thought Cierra Runge or Brittany MacLean would be the one to sweep the distance events instead of Leah Smith. Maybe you figured Simone Manuel could unleash a huge back half in the 200 to overtake Franklin and sweep her three events. But in the end, four swimmers combined to win nine of 13 individual events and dominate the meet.
The men’s meet, coming up beginning Thursday in Iowa City, looks like something far different, a seven-team extravaganza where one could pull the name of the swimmer of the meet out of a hat. Texas looks strong this year, with record-setting sophomore Jack Conger leading the way, while USC has the top psych sheet projection, at 332 points.
But whereas the Cal women were seeded to win by a 131-point cushion, the Trojan men have a solid one-point margin over Texas based on the psych sheet. And even further back, seven teams – including Florida, Michigan, NC State, Georgia, and Cal – are all seeded to finish within 72 points of one another, and really, any of those teams could make up the margin to win the whole meet, even without any high-impact relay DQs.
Projected Final Scores Based on Psych Sheet
[table “” not found /]
Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
Individually, there are no Franklins or Manuels racking up points for their squad at the men’s meet. Normally, one would think of Kevin Cordes as a similar sure-thing, but Cordes has not been his usual dominant self this year. He enters seeded eighth in the 100 breast at 52.04, two seconds slower than his winning time – and American record – from last year. He is seeded fifth in the 200 breast at 1:52.65, four seconds off last year’s pace (1:48.66).
Like Cordes, Chase Kalisz set an American record at last year’s championships with a 3:34.50 in the 400 IM. This year, Kalisz looks vulnerable; while he has the top seed (3:38.39), Josh Prenot enters less than a half second off the pace. And then there’s Dylan Bosch, whose 200 fly NCAA record from last year (1:49.33) fell to Conger at the Big-12 Championships last month, and he now must fight off both Conger and his freshman teammate, Joseph Schooling.
However, what this meet lacks in star power, it will more than make up for with exciting, wide-open racing. In the breaststrokes, Cordes will have to deal with familiar foes like Nic Fink and Chuck Katis as well as impressive freshmen Peter Stevens and Nils Wich-Glasen. The 500 free, meanwhile, will feature a clash between Trojans Cristian Quintero and Reed Malone and Florida teammates Mitch D’Arrigo and Dan Wallace, one that could have big implications in the team race.
NC State has their sights set on, at the very least, a top-five finish, and they expect to score big in their bread-and-butter events, the sprints and relays. Simonas Bilis leads the way individually for the Wolfpack, but he will have intense competition from 50 free defending co-champions Kristian Gkolomeev and Brad Tandy, along with Florida freshman stud Caeleb Dressel.
David Nolan will chase his own American record in the 200 IM and try to become the first ever to break 1:40 in the event, but the battle behind him could have major implications in the team race: Texas’ Will Licon vs. Cal’s Josh Prenot vs. Michigan’s Dylan Bosch, with 400 IM star Chase Kalisz lurking for the Georgia Bulldogs.
And finally, Cal’s Ryan Murphy won both backstroke events a year ago as freshman, but he could be dethroned by another upstart this season. USC freshman Ralf Tribuntsov came from near-obscurity to post the top time of the season in prelims at Pac-12s, a 44.95, though Murphy would edge Tribuntsov in the final, 44.98 to 45.27. Other freshman that could make a big impact this week include NC State’s Anton Ipsen, Florida’s Matt Szaranek, Auburn’s Hugo Morris, and Indiana’s Blake Pieroni.
Thankfully, I’m not charged with making a prediction for NCAAs. Teams that could win the whole thing could easily end up outside of the top three or even the top five if things don’t shake their way. But count on competitive races, a back-and-forth team battle, and probably some big upsets once things get rolling on Thursday in Iowa.
Price Fishback contributed to this analysis.
Although I hate assuies but your swimming team is my favorite. I love them all
Quick correction (adjusted above): Murphy actually beat Tribuntsov at Pac-12s. Time by Tribuntsov came in prelims. My bad.
Elizabeth Licon I can’t wait