By Patrick Murphy, Swimming World Intern
Michael Phelps. Ryan Lochte. Matt Grevers. Nathan Adrian. Tyler Clary. Conor Dwyer. Anthony Ervin. Connor Jaeger. These are the faces of U.S. Men’s swimming and along with Aaron Piersol, Brendan Hansen, Ian Crocker, and Peter Vanderkaay, these men have been the faces of men’s swimming. When will these faces change? This summer should clarify the potential for this next generation.
Last summer, young college stars Reed Malone, Cody Miller, Ryan Murphy, Jacob Pebley, Josh Prenot, and Jordan Wilimovsky made their first major long course international meet. They swam Pan Pacs, but only Malone, Miller, and Murphy qualified for the World Championships team.
The World University Games roster consists of college studs ready to breakthrough, including standouts Jack Conger, Seth Stubblefield, and Clay Youngquist in addition to high school phenom Andrew Seliskar. Shockingly, these lists don’t even include some of the best swimmers from NCAAs like Caeleb Dressel, Will Licon, and David Nolan.
For these swimmers, this summer is their final chance to gain the confidence to compete with the veterans in 2016. That is why this summer is so important for these up-and-comers. This is the summer of truth for them to prove not only to themselves but also to the swimming community that the next generation is ready.
Of the swimmers who swam at 2015 NCAAs and had not made a major long course international meet until Pan Pacs last summer, who has the best chance to make the 2016 Olympic team?
*Note: This excludes class of 2014 graduated swimmers Cody Miller, Michael Wynalda and high school swimmers like Andrew Seliskar and Townley Haas in addition to 2015 collegiate swimmers who have already made major long course international meets like Kevin Cordes, Nic Fink, and Chase Kalisz.
Best Chances
Jack Conger, Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
1. Jack Conger– In January, Conger dropped a 51.64 in the 100 fly, which ranks 5th in the U.S. since London. Conger also set the American record in the 200 yard fly in February. His 1:55.48 in the 200 meter back from 2013 still ranks 3rd behind Lochte and Clary, but since then he has not been close to that time. He has been 49.28 in the 100 free (40.9 short course relay split), so he has an outside shot in that relay as well.
2. Caeleb Dressel– At 48.97 in the 100 free, Dressel ranks behind 7 veteran swimmers. With 6 relay spots, he has a legitimate shot to claim one if he can get into the final. Beating Cullen Jones, Anthony Ervin, or Nathan Adrian in the 50 will be very difficult.
3. Reed Malone- The development of Malone is very important for the future of the U.S. 800 freestyle relay. Following his 1:31.59 anchor split at NCAAs, Malone should get in the 1:45 range soon.
4. Ryan Murphy– Murphy finally broke through and made the Worlds team in the 200 back last summer but missed the 100 to Grevers and David Plummer after placing 3rd in both events in 2013. His 200 time still ranks behind Conger, but he has gone 1:55 three times and 53.2 four times, so he should be in for big time drops this summer and next summer.
5. Josh Prenot– To be honest, I originally had Prenot in the “Outside shot” category before his performance at Charlotte Grand Prix. Josh won the 200 breast in 2:09.3, a 1.1 second drop from last summer. That time ranks Prenot 3rd behind Nic Fink and Kevin Cordes. Prenot seems to make the most consistent improvement of anyone, dropping from 2:12.2 in 2013 to 2:10.4 last summer and now 2:09.3 in-season. If Josh goes 2:08 later this summer at WUGs, he will be a favorite next summer. Prenot has also gone 4:14 in the 400 IM, so he has a chance to upset in that event in Omaha.
6. Jordan Wilimovsky– Wilimovsky ranks third behind Connor Jaeger and Michael McBroom with a 14:56 in the mile. He dropped over 30 seconds from the summer before and if he continues that improvement, he has a great chance to make the Olympic team.
Outside Shots
Will Licon, Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
7. Will Licon– If Licon drops time like he did at NCAAs, his 2:11.6 breaststroke may become a 2:08 or 2:09, which puts him in striking range.
8. David Nolan– Nolan could be third and push Phelps and Lochte in the 200 IM. He has an outside shot at some relay spots with great swims.
9. Jacob Pebley– Pebley has been very consistent in the 200 back and with a great swim could be there at the end.
10. Seth Stubblefield– Stubblefield ranks behind Dressel in the 100 free and in front of him in the 50 free. He dropped from 49.3 to 49.0 last summer and is known for getting his hand on the wall, so if he makes the final, watch out.
11. Clay Youngquist– Youngquist made the National Team in the 200 free with a 1:47.9 last summer. He has been inconsistent the past 5 summers in this event, but if he is on, he should make the 800 free relay.
Of the names above, I believe Malone then Murphy, Prenot, and Wilimovsky have the best chances to make the Olympic team, with Conger, Dressel, Stubblefield, Licon, and Youngquist following close behind. What do you think?
Lucas Tyler the picture reminded me of you
#gocalaebdressel
Jack Conger is a beast and I think should be ranked right behind Murphy. He is consistant and always races hard.