Swimming World’s coverage of the Arena Pro Swim Series is sponsored by Arena. Visit our event coverage page for photos, results and more!
Commentary by Jeff Commings
This week’s Arena Pro Swim Series might be the last time we’ll see Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps face off in 2015. Barring any unexpected changes in his routine, this meet might be Lochte’s last meet before world championships, unless he picks a smaller-scale meet close to home. And with Phelps absolutely, positively, without a shred of doubt, not swimming in the world championships, Charlotte will be the last place these two will wage their epic battles that draw big crowds and have swim fans discussing their races in detail.
The two are scheduled to swim in five events together: 100 and 200 free, 100 fly, 100 back and 200 IM. The 200 IM is the one that always gets me excited. These two are the best in history in the event, posting the 10 fastest performances in history. Though Japan’s Kosuke Hagino got the better of both of them last summer at the Pan Pacific championships, I’m not ready to claim him as the usurper to their reigns in the event. This week, though both will be in the middle of hard training, I expect they will do what they do best: take the race down to the wire with the outcome decided by a few tenths.
Thiago Pereira and Conor Dwyer will be in Charlotte, and both are bound to give Phelps and Lochte a great race. I see Dwyer being the only American who can bump Phelps or Lochte off the Olympic roster in the 200 IM, and his apparent improvement in all four strokes since moving to Los Angeles showed last month in Mesa when he beat Phelps and nearly took down Lochte. Pereira has always been on the brink of crashing the Lochte-Phelps party, but still needs a better freestyle if he wants to win international medals. And Dwyer’s front half is his apparent weakness.
I’m not ready to predict the winning time for the men’s 200 IM this weekend, but I am certain that Phelps will break two minutes (he was 2:00.01 in Mesa), with Phelps and/or Dwyer joining Lochte in the world top 10 rankings. Lochte is already there with a 1:58.57 from January, and might move up the ladder a bit as well. That would be encouraging news for Lochte and crushing news for his rivals, as everyone ranked higher than Lochte in the 200 IM so far this year did their swims shaved with some degree of tapering.
I am anxious about the 100 free as well. Lochte and Phelps have a shot at making the Olympic team in the 100 free behind Nathan Adrian, and this year might be a test to see how they stack up against the best in the U.S. Lochte made the world championship team in the 100 free, but gave his spot to Jimmy Feigen. While I understand that Lochte wants to taper down his schedule at worlds, it might have been good practice for him to race an international 100 free, just to see if he thinks he can handle it. Charlotte will also have Caeleb Dressel in the mix, and his star is rising faster than anyone else’s in sprint freestyle this year.
With Katie Ledecky not racing in Charlotte, Katinka Hosszu looks to be the headliner on the women’s side. She’s entered in all 17 events, but even the Iron Lady might think that’s overreaching a bit at a meet where the competition is tough for every race. But, if she does all 17, she could earn a lot of prize money and show why she’s one of the toughest racers in the world.
Bet neither goes sub- 2:00.0.
Mr Commings: Competitors in the Arena PSS are limited to a max of 7 events per meet, so Hosszu will have to drop more than half the events she has entered.
Bet they both do