By Patrick Murphy, Swimming World Intern
When I watched the 2008 and 2012 Olympic Trials, I saw a fair share of upsets. There are always favorites going into Olympic Trials, but no one earns an Olympic berth on paper.
What have been the biggest upsets in the 2008 and 2012 Olympic Trials? The criteria I used to rank these upsets takes into account the hype and media press of the upsetter heading into Olympic Trials and the star power of the favorite.
5. Peter Vanderkaay knocks Erik Vendt out of the mile in 2008
Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
This race was not even close. Peter Vanderkaay ran away from Vendt and crushed him by 22 seconds, so how was this an upset? Well, Vendt went 14:46 (U.S. Open Record) in May at the Santa Clara meet and in prelims at Olympic Trials, he went an easy 14:50 where he looked unbeatable. Although Vanderkaay was a well-known 200-400 guy, he was relatively inexperienced in a tapered 1500 Free.
He went a 14:52 at a Grand Prix meet in April, but he didn’t even swim the race in 2007. His lifetime best time prior to that Grand Prix was a 15:14. Heading into the meet, Erik Vendt and Larsen Jensen were the two clear favorites according to Swimming World Magazine. So when Peter Vanderkaay beat the guy who was known for ridiculous distance sets and had been a mainstay in the mile for years, it was a big-time upset.
4. Cullen Jones gets 2nd in 100 Free in 2012
In lane one in the men’s 100 freestyle at the 2012 Olympic Trials, Cullen Jones epitomized the words “outside smoke.” Jones sneaked into the final in 8th, but due to a Ryan Lochte scratch, he moved to 7th and into lane one. He went out faster than everyone except for Nathan Adrian and finished with a 48.46 and his first individual Olympic berth.
This wasn’t a big upset in the sense that he downed a predictable Olympic qualifier, because there was no definitive favorite after Adrian. This was more a shock because many people had written off Cullen and many names were considered in front of him. He went 49.5 in 2010 and 49.6 in 2011 so he was not exactly on the radar. Swim sites like SwimSwam not only failed to predict him to make the final, but also didn’t even mention him in the “Next Four Out” category.
3. Scott Weltz wins the 200 Breast in 2012 over Brendan Hansen and Eric Shanteau
This Olympic Trials upset was more about the fact that Scott Weltz was pretty much an unknown on the national scene than the fact that the favorites were dominant. Brendan Hansen had a great career, but hadn’t swum a 200 breast up to his standards in six years. Eric Shanteau was the heavy favorite in this event, but there were still some picking against him.
Very few though were picking Weltz, and that’s why this upset ranks third. Look at this crazy progression for Weltz. In 2009, Weltz ranked 32nd in the US with a 2:17.60. In 2010, Weltz didn’t even compete in a long course meet. In 2011, Weltz went 2:14.44 at Summer Nationals and then 2:12.37 at Winter Nationals. His drop to go 2:09.01 to, not only qualify for the Olympic team, but to win the 200 Breast at Olympic Trials was an unbelievable drop for a post-grad swimmer out of college.
2. Matt Grevers gets a hand on the wall over Ryan Lochte in the 100 Back in 2008
You might see this and think, “What? Grevers over Lochte in the 100 back is an upset?” At the time, Ryan Lochte was a fan favorite who pushed Michael Phelps to a world record in the 400 IM a few nights earlier. He even scratched the 200 free final to ensure a spot in the 100 back. Matt Grevers was a relative unknown at this point in his career, even though he is a household name now.
In the Swimming World Magazine June 2008 Olympic Trial preview, he wasn’t even mentioned as an upset possibility. His best time in 2007 was a 55.31, but he dropped to a 53.1 at Trials. He went on to win the silver medal at the Olympics and has been regarded as the best 100 backstroker in the world for the past 4-5 years, so his success since then has diminished the “upset” status to be only second on this list. Still, at the time, this was one of the biggest upsets of the 2008 trials, and Ryan Lochte is the probably the biggest name to have been “upset” at the 2008 or 2012 Olympic Trials.
1) Scott Spann wins the 200 Breast over Brendan Hansen in 2008
Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
I still remember watching this race and I’m sure you all do too. It was painful. Brendan Hansen led for 150 meters right at American Record pace only to be passed by three people in the last 50. Scott Spann won the event with a 2:09.97. Scott Spann dropped from 2:17 in 2005 to 2:16 in 2006 to 2:13 in 2007 so his progression is similar to Scott Weltz’s. The difference between Scott Spann upsetting Brendan Hansen in 2008 and Scott Weltz upsetting Brendan Hansen in 2012 is that there was much less hype surrounding Hansen in 2012. There were huge expectations for Hansen in 2008, evidenced by this quote in Swimming World Magazine’s preview:
“Hansen is almost untouchable when he’s in peak form, and he believes he has a 2:07 somewhere in his arsenal.”
Now that is a pretty big upset. I still remember the announcers in shock as Brendan Hansen faded down the stretch (unfortunately the video is not on YouTube).
Honorable Mention Upsets:
Gil Stovall over Davis Tarwater in the 200 fly in 2008.
Garrett Weber-Gale over Cullen Jones in 50 Free in 2008.
Clark Burckle over Brendan Hansen and Eric Shanteau in the 200 Breast in 2012.
2016 Olympic Trials Upset Watch
Now, how does this relate to next summer? Well, here are some names to keep an eye on who could potentially upset at next summer Olympic Trials:
Chuck Katis
Photo Courtesy: Andy Ringgold
Katis was dominant at NCAAs for Cal this year, but he has not tapped his potential in long course. A victory over Kevin Cordes, Cody Miller, or Nic Fink in the 100 breast would qualify as a big upset.
Frank Dyer
Photo Courtesy: Catherine Ladd
The Notre Dame alum has improved each season and just missed making the national team last summer. He could upset to make the 800 free relay.
Josh Schneider
Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
Schneider is known for the 50 free, but he went a best time in the 100 free at Charlotte Grand Prix. With a big taper, he has the potential to upset Michael Phelps or Jimmy Feigen in the 100 free.
Jay Litherland
Photo Courtesy: Griffin Scott
The youngster from University of Georgia has been 4:14 in the 400 I.M. but is not talked about often. With a big drop, he could upset Chase Kalisz, Tyler Clary, or Josh Prenot.
David Nolan
Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
The college superstar and first person ever under 1:40 in the short course 200 I.M. could be a part of the biggest upset of all time if he can take down Phelps or Lochte in the 200 I.M.
Diogo Maia E Silva
Love reminiscing about some of these upsets. The 200 breast in 2012 (the one where Weltz/Burckle shocked Shanteau/Hansen) was the first evening race I saw at Olympic Trials. And a helluva way to start out! I spoke to someone afterwards who had some experience in the event, and he was really shocked Shanteau hadn’t made it. Of course, hard to forget the feeling of my jaw dropping to the ground when Scott Spann won that race in 2008. Another one (fairly minor on the Richter scale though) was Margaret Hoelzer beating Haley McGregory for the second spot in the 100 back in ’08. Not that it was a shocker to see Hoelzer make it, but McGregory had broken the WORLD RECORD in prelims (and held it for all of 3 minutes before Coughlin re-broke it). Fairly sobering moment for someone who would end up getting third at Trials FOUR times (100 + 200 in both 2004 and 2008).
Thanks for the comment David.
I was torn and originally had the Weltz upset first on the list, but I still remember the announcer’s during Scott Spann’s win in 2008. Hansen looked very in control and then the wheels fell off. Unbelievable.
super cute <3
Nice
Craig Nieuwstad
That what does not kill you , only makes you stronger and a much better competitor ???
I’ve never completely understood what happened to Vendt in that 2008 1500 final, it was so shocking. His swim in prelims of 14:50 was indeed a bit too fast for the morning, but that alone didn’t explain the 15:08 at night, given his previous 14:46. He said briefly “I could tell when I dove in the water that I just wasn’t feeling it.” — which is really vague. I wondered if he had a low-grade virus that he wasn’t aware of, or something like that. I assumed it wasn’t mental, because he was one of the toughest competitors and trainers, mentally.
It was such a shocking race since he was having a very solid meet as well. As a distance swimmer myself, I have had those miles where you dive in and just know you’re not going to have a good race. It is amazing to think that even happens to world class distance swimmers and probably one of the toughest trainers in history, from what I’ve heard.
Interesting, though it’s still a mystery to me. Do these performances come as a complete surprise to you when you dive in, or is there a sense before that that somethings not right, even though prelims went well for you. Since it happened to you too, what do you think happens in your body that signals your otherwise usually very tough mind that “it’s over” before you barely begin? Is it unusual muscle tightness/sluggish lactate clearance, subtle hydration/nutrition/metabolic issues that day, low grade immune/inflammation/infectious issues? Sheer exhaustion from several days of extreme exertion and lack of adequate rest? (though even that latter one is vague). Some combo of all of the above? Wonder if it’s been studied, in the way that they have tried to analyze the opposite, flukey amazing performances.
Because distance swimmers are normally unusually tough mentally, IMHO, I believe that whatever physiological factors conspire to create the unusually poor performance must also extend to brain neurophysiology to compromise the optimal neurotransmitter pathways that normally assist with pain and discomfort tolerance/ignoring, laser focus as needed, and the optimal emotional mix, even early in the race.
liquidassets,
I also wonder if it has been studied as well. I have never done a prelims-finals mile so I cannot answer to that question. But there have been times where I have had an unbelievable meet with all huge drops and then gotten to the mile on the last day and been severely disappointed. Part of that for me is that I always trained to be “a miler” but was much more natural at the 400/500 for sure. Although the one time I had the mile at the beginning of the meet, it was the best race of my life. So for me, the diving in and knowing I was off could have been purely physically being tired from the rest of the meet.
As for Erik Vendt, I completely believe that he felt off right when he dove him. Analyzing the splits, he did not have as much easy speed the first 100 at finals but was still ahead of his prelims pace at the 500 and the faded badly. He clearly was trying to overcompensate up front and then died. I honestly have no idea what would cause that kind of collapse for one of the best distance swimmers in US history though.
One thing I can say though is that no matter how mentally tough someone is, once that breaking point comes in the mile, there is nothing you can do. I am guessing that Vendt pushed it as long as he could but when he dove in, he knew deep down that it wasn’t going to happen.