After not winning any events at the Arena Pro Swim Series in Charlotte, Michael Phelps seems to think the sky is falling.
Even when he’s tired from seemingly endless hours of training, Phelps can still manage a win or two. He won the 100 fly in Mesa, but against pretty much the same field, he placed third in Charlotte. After finishing third in the 200 IM in Mesa, he failed to make the final in Charlotte, though he did rally somewhat in the B final to swim the sixth-fastest performance overall.
Yes, it is a little weird for us journalists to write articles about Phelps not winning anything at a meet. It rarely happens. I had to sit and really think about the last meet where Phelps didn’t see a “1” next to his name on the scoreboard.
The fact that this year’s meet in Charlotte was one of the fastest ever in 31 years made Phelps’ struggles stand out even more. In a “normal” year, Phelps would have probably won the 100 fly. He might have not won the 200 IM or the 100 free, but he would have definitely been in the mix.
“Horrendous” was one word Phelps used to describe his performances. I agree with Phelps’ assessment of his racing. Nothing looked sharp. Even the best racers can put together the skills needed to win the races they’re supposed to win, but I couldn’t see much of that from Phelps. Even though he’s not going to the world championships as punishment for his September DUI arrest, Phelps will want to produce outstanding times at the USA Swimming nationals in early August to assert his position that training for the 2016 Olympics is no passing fancy. What happened in the four weeks since his performances in Mesa, which elicited plenty of smiles from Phelps?
He doesn’t seem to know. Like every other competitive swimmer around the world, Phelps has finally had a disastrous meet. Everyone has experienced it, and this should only motivate Phelps to re-evaluate what he needs to do this summer. Perhaps he was training too hard this past month. Maybe his body wasn’t in a racing mood.
Here are five things I noticed from Phelps in Charlotte:
1. His dolphin kicks aren’t of his typical quality.
Perhaps the extreme training has worn out his legs, but Phelps wasn’t underwater as far as he usually goes, and his kicks off the turns didn’t gain him an advantage on the field.
2. He has little snap in his stroke.
This was evident in the 100 butterfly. While he did nearly catch Tom Shields in the last few strokes, the surge wasn’t typical of the Phelps we know.
3. The opening half of his races were off kilter.
Another thing about the 100 fly was that he didn’t appear aggressive on the first 50 meters. In Mesa, he was first at the 50 and outsplit the rest of the pack. But in Charlotte, he had to fight his way out of the middle of the pack to catch Shields and Ryan Lochte.
4. He needs a bigger cup of coffee in the morning
It’s one thing to hold back in the prelims sessions to save up for finals, but it looked like Phelps was in a trance in Charlotte each morning. That was evident in the fact that he didn’t make the A final in the 100 free, 200 free or 200 IM. Meets such as this should act as rehearsal for the big meets (nationals, Olympics) where holding back could be disastrous. Katinka Hosszu is the best at swimming fast in prelims and still doing well in finals. The top Americans tend to think that they can coast by in a domestic meet, then find themselves wondering why they are not in the top eight at worlds or Olympics.
5. He’ll be just fine at nationals.
Is there really any cause for concern that Michael Phelps will not perform the way we know he can at the USA Swimming nationals in August? No. When it really matters, Phelps has (more often than not) been able to rise above the occasion and do things that no one thought possible.
Photo Courtesy: Jeremy Brevard – USA TODAY Sports Images
Chicken Little also thought the sky was falling, but it turned out to be just an acorn that fell on his head. This weekend’s meet was just an acorn falling on Phelps’ head, and we’re bound to see a major turnaround from Phelps before this summer’s nationals.
He’s in a 30 year old body that doesn’t recover from real work quite as well as it did in his youth, but I’ll bet that same 30 year old body will soak up the rest when it comes and be as strong as ever when the important 2015 swims arrive for him in San Antonio.
I think so, too, Duncan. It was still weird not seeing him win in Charlotte.
I agree with you absolutely, Jeff.
I’ve probably seen MP live in over 20 different meets over more than a decade between Sydney 2000 and today. The only meets over that period where I don’t recall him with at least one win were Mesa 2014 (0,20 back from Lochte in 100 Fly) and 2014 Nationals (0.01 back from Shields in 100 Fly; 0.05 back from Lochte in 200 IM), each still in what have to be considered fine swims in the baby steps portion of his comeback.
Even in this Charlotte weekend, the depth of quality performances (a few extra swimmers and others just further along in their preparations) made MP’s clearly fatigued performances look much worse than they probably were objectively. His 9th place 200 free would have been 2nd in Mesa, less than a second back from Dwyer and a few tenths ahead of Lochte. And in Michael’s winning 100 Free in Mesa he swam :49.72, with Lochte’s :49.75 the only other sub 50 second swim in finals. In Charlotte. MP tied for 11th at :49.96; his winning Mesa time would have been 6th, .34 back from 5th.
He’s been 3/4 the way across the country for most of his career (at least until he comes to Arizona this fall) so there are certainly many of his meets on which I didn’t see results, but I suspect he had at least one win in the bulk of them. He’s simply suffering now under the expectations he created over all those years of UNRELENTING excellence.
The closest thing over that same 15 year period to Phelps has been Lochte, and as great as he’s been in the biggest meets over that period, there have been MANY meets (i.e. Grand Prix and PSS, etc.) over that time in which Ryan failed to get wins; he has swum in boatloads of “B” finals (and maybe even some “C” and “D”‘s?); we always just chalked it up to Greg Troy pounding (i.e. see also Elizabeth Beisel) and didn’t really get worried enough about it to get on his case and, as I said, he was always there at the end (and even sometimes during the season, like the mixed good/excellent weekend he just had). And though Ryan had some interim injuries, he didn’t ever have a 2 year retirement or a 6 month suspension to gum up the works.
Patience, Grasshopper. It may still be substantially rewarded.
I’m not writing him off yet. He swam a tough slate of events in the midst of heavy training (and he is getting older). Recovery between races may not be what it once was at this point in his training but if he keeps his schedule shorter (100 Fly plus 2 other events and relays) I think he is still going to grab some medals in Rio.
I wouldn’t suggest anyone write him off either, though it was indeed weird not seeing him pull out at least one victory. He is just not fully used to training in a 30-year old body, which requires more rest between sets & also after practice (God knows he has the time for that because he doesn’t have to work with his earnings & endorsements even now), more massage & a smarter approach (such as shorter races). Dara Torres at 41 won Olympic Silver just 1/100 behind Britta Steffen of Germany, & has talked ever since about her need for recovery time between repeats & sets, lots of massage & rest, etc. And Ryan Lochte has often as mentioned above performed poorly in hard training only to shine later when tapering. This is potentially a swan song (2016 Rio) for both of them (MP for sure), so I anticipate they will be both fired up & ready.
Wait. What were the “5 takeaways”?
The “5 Takeaways” are at the bottom of the article.
Hey I wanted to read them too…
i thinked he retired!!! isn’t he ?
No one is immune to overtraining. Not even the GOAT. It’s far better for Phelps to learn his training limits this year instead of thinking that working “extra hard” next year will lead to success. Gearing more toward RPT at lower volume is probably a smarter recipe for him now than megayardage. One thing I’ve learned over years of swimming is what worked in the past won’t work forever. You must change, evolve and adapt.
Spoken like a true Master of the sport!
Ditto!
In 2012, I think a lot of pros worked too hard and either didn’t trust the recovery process or didn’t recognize the amount of rest required to recover from the extra fatigue from their increased work load and advancing age. Natalie comes to mind. She was super fit at the ’12 trials, but looked mentally and physically tired and had no snap. Training super hard is only half of the performance equation. Sometimes it takes more courage to back off than to keep grinding.
the man is already a champion – he does not need to “always win” to be a winner – look at what his foundation is doing for kids and look at the standard he has set – he has said don’t keep up with me – beat me – what’s that saying about the man…
Ok
I just want to say that if he wins or losse, he always will be a role model for all the little swimmers and a GREAT SWIMMER like him at least should shake hands with the kids. He did not do it last year, and also this year…..he prefer to walk in the edge of the pool instead to shake hands. He had the opportunitie to makes them the day…..even the memory of their lives, but he did not AGAIN !!
That’s interesting, Adelita. He spent a lot of time signing autographs in Mesa, which was a major turnaround for him.
The only race that counts
It just happens, it just happens and it just happens. It is part of every swimmer. He is training not in for the win.
Did anybody interview Bob Bowman to find out how he felt about Michael’s performances?
“The fastest horses don’t always win, but only a fool would bet against them.” Phelps should be training for the 200 fly and 400 I.M. He’s only 30. He’s the best swimmer in history, but he’s not a sprinter — he swims down to sprints because the rest of the world lets him. The problem is probably success. If he were 30 and had always taken third, he might be really hungry this time to win. Perhaps because he’s well ‘fed’ and this is just a last fling. That said see the quote above — he could win the 100 fly and make the relays if no one steps up and takes his spot. Think of it this way — what track athlete can win both the 400 (1500 meters) and make the 4 x 100 or even the 4 x 200 relay?. This has always been proof to me that swimming is still an evolving sport and the fastest times are still to come. We’ve been fooling ourselves into believing we’re making progress in times the way we should with the “tech” suits. In reality, training hasn’t been evolving on very many teams. I believe most of America’s best swimmers aren’t reaching their potential due to a lack of specific training. The proof is in Phelps — he is blessed to live in this time when he could win at such diverse distances and events. It won’t always be this way, but probably won’t change in the next year. That all said, if he’s serious, he should do what he has done best — the 400 I and the 200 fly.