Guest editorial by David Rieder
PHOENIX, Arizona, August 18. SWIMMING World superfan David Rieder, who blogs on his site at swimdr549.blogspot.com, is back with his thoughts on the sport of swimming heading into 2012 and the Olympics to be staged in London.
In the two weeks since the World Championships concluded in Rome, I have had a chance to look back at a week that was historic for some good and not-so-good reasons.
After the World Champs in the post-Olympic year, the build-up to the next Olympics begins. In each of the last two Olympiads, stars that would be present for the next four years made their mark at the post-Olympic champs. In 2001, it was Natalie Coughlin, Michael Phelps, Brendan Hansen and Aaron Peirsol. In 2005, it was Katie Hoff, Kate Ziegler, Leisel Jones and Jessicah Schipper. Each of these swimmers won their first world title at their respective version of the World Champs and plotted a course of dominance for the next four years.
While this year, it will be harder to tell who is here to stay, mainly because of the ever-changing rules about suit technology, here is my take on what Roma 09 means for the next four years.
The Suits
The effect that 100 percent polyurethane suits had on Worlds is undeniable and huge. They made the meet unpredictable, and, in that sense, exciting, but it also diminished the historical significance of each of those 43 world records set. The suits made it impossible to distinguish between a good swim and a truly great swim. An example would be Ariana Kukors. At the U.S. Trials two weeks before the big show, Kukors only managed a third-place finish in the 200 IM while swimming in a hybrid polyurethane/textile suit.
With a stroke of luck thanks to Elizabeth Pelton scratching the event, Kukors not only found herself in the event in Rome, she also found herself on top of the podium. She swam a time more than two seconds faster than what had been the global standard. She left the former champion of the event Stephanie Rice almost a full second in her wake.
All it took was two weeks, and, oh yeah, a new Jaked suit. One can give all the credit to the suits, but then you must remember one important little fact: Rice was in the same suit! However, it has become clear that the new suits affect different swimmers differently, and we won't know how much until they are back in the textile jammers and kneeskins in 2010. Thus, the next three years may turn out a lot different than this one, but I'll still try to put the pieces together.
Who Needs the Suits?
That will be the question we need to answer as we head into the new age of technology in 2010. Other than the times they put up, I don't think the roster of top swimmers will change very much. Great swimmers will be able to use this change to their benefit to change their training focus and technique to what works best without the suit. That said, the suits offered compression and buoyancy, which helped those with bigger bodies the most. Swimmers such as Alain Bernard and Paul Biedermann, whom the suits really helped compress, will find it harder to stay competitive, while the most hydrodynamic and technically-perfect swimmers, such as Kirsty Coventry and Natalie Coughlin, will see the least drop off in time. As a general statement, based on the amount of material that will still be allowed in women's suits and the generally-smaller statue of women, I think their time drops will be less than those of their male counterparts.
The New Stars of Swimming?
Over the next few years, the stars of 2012 will become much clearer, but here are some contenders coming out of Rome:
Cesar Cielo – We saw a little bit of what Cielo was capable of last year in Beijing, with a pair of medals. Now, we have seen the full package. Cielo is the first sprint king the sport has seen since the days of Alex Popov. Still only 22, the Brazilian looks to extend his dominance over the next several years. In the premier sprint training group in the world with the premier sprint coach in the world, Brett Hawke, Cielo can still make massive strides and pull away from deep fields in the sprints. There is even a chance that he will be able to improve on his suit-aided times without one. It doesn't look like anyone can touch Cielo right now in his events.
Katinka Hosszu – In a World Champs with many surprises, this Hungarian flew under the radar, taking bronzes in loaded fields in the 200 IM and 200 fly. Then, on the final night, she upset a loaded field of veterans, including Olympic gold and silver medalists Stephanie Rice and Kirsty Coventry. Of all the stars from Rome, Hosszu has gotten the least attention, but I think this 20-year-old USC sophomore has only shown the world the beginning of what she can do. We will see how she can do against Coventry and Rice in their respective bests in an equal field in terms of suits, but I think she will be quite a match for those two great medley titans.
Ariana Kukors – The time drops posted by Ariana Kukors last month are too much to be solely the suit. She is the best 200 IMer in the world, and I think we will see that progress continue throughout the next few years. She has stated a goal to work as hard as she can and come out of the sport with no regrets, so I think she will still be on top or near the top with the new limits on suit technology. We will see how she compares to a fully healthy Stephanie Rice and Kirsty Coventry in equal suit technology, but I think she can swim under 2:10 without any fast suit. She didn't have the opportunity to swim the 400 IM at Worlds, but I think she would have been in medal contention at the very least. If she can put it all together over the next three years, she could be a threat for medals, possibly all gold, in three or more events. She also was a big part of the American women's silver medal 4×200 free relay, where she split 1:55-flat.
Rebecca Soni – Like Cesar Cielo, we saw a glimpse of what Rebecca Soni could do in Beijing, but she made huge strides before Rome and not just in terms of time. Soni emerged as a more confident veteran of breaststroke, one with more speed than she displayed in Beijing. She was just one well-swum race and one better-timed touch away from winning three breaststroke races in Rome. She will no doubt learn from these experiences, as well as those from Beijing to retain her spot as one of the world's premier breaststrokers over the next three years. While she will be challenged by the returns of Leisel Jones and Jessica Hardy to major competition, she is ready to take on the world heading into London.
Ryosuke Irie – Irie has been on a fast-paced progression to the top of the backstroke rankings over the past two years. Tapped as a medal contender headed into Beijing in the 200 back, he ended up fifth, with a swim well off his best. Over the next eight months, he hacked a whopping three seconds off his Olympics time to set an unofficial world record in his signature event at the Duel in the Pool in April. In addition, he won the 100 back, missing the world record by just two one-hundredths of a second. He showed remarkable consistency over the season, swimming times that ranked within the top ten all-time in the 200 back on four occasions. However, when he got to Rome, the demons he saw in Beijing hit him again. With Aaron Peirsol out of the 100 back, he was pegged as a possibility for gold, but ended tied for fourth. However, he came back to finish second to Peirsol in the 200 back, under both his unofficial world record (the fastest time in history) and Peirsol's official mark. He also went a personal best in the 100 back leading off Japan's prelim medley relay, a time which would have given him silver in the individual final. All of this, and Irie is just 19 years old. He has a lot left to give over the next Olympiad or two. As one of a handful of backstrokers who swam this year in legs-only suits, his time drops will not be as significant as others. Irie may just be the next backstroke king in the making.
Michael Phelps – You're probably thinking: how can Phelps be a new star? I think we will see a new Michael Phelps over the next three years, one that displays the same good old-fashioned dominance in some new territory. While defending his crowns from the butterfly events, Phelps will try to reclaim the spot as number one in the world in the 200 IM and 200 free, and he may try to see if he can take down the world's top sprinters in the 100 free or maybe step up to the 400 free. He could try to knock off Aaron Peirsol and company in the backstrokers. And as he has proven time and time again, he can do almost anything. His times will be among the closest to his fast suit times of any swimmer, mainly because the fastest suit he got was the LZR. He is the swimmer most likely to set a world record next year. Michael Phelps will be the face of swimming for the next three years, and one would be foolish to discount him in anything he tries to do.