Guest editorial by David Rieder
PHOENIX, Arizona, July 16. SWIMMING World superfan David Rieder, who blogs on his site at swimdr549.blogspot.com, joins us again with his thoughts on how relays will pan out at the World Championships later this month.
Men's 400 free relay: Is it all France?
While the Americans managed an amazing victory over France last year, the men from Gaul look to be too far ahead now. This year, they have five men who have broken 48 (Alain Bernard, Fred Bousquet, Amaury Leveaux, William Meynard, Fabien Gilot), while the Americans have no one on the team under that mark (Jason Lezak has a 47.80, but is headed to the Maccabiah Games this weekend). The top four times from each country added up have France winning by about three seconds!
In Rome, Michael Phelps will be added to the quartet, and others look to be able to break 48, such as Nathan Adrian, Ryan Lochte, Dave Walters and Garrett Weber-Gale. Behind the Americans will be a big fight for bronze.
Boasting a 47.59 (Andrey Grechin) as well as three 48 swimmers, Russia looks like the favorite for that spot. The Aussies won bronze in Beijing, but they suffered a big blow with the loss of Eamon Sullivan, and they are also missing Ashley Callus from Beijing.
Other solid relays include Brazil, led by Cesar Cielo (PR 47.60), and Canada, led by Brent Hayden (PR 47.56). 2004 Gold Medalist South Africa still has Roland Schoeman, Lyndon Ferns, and Darian Townsend, but they lack another 48-point swimmer, with Ryk Neethling retired and Gideon Louw off the Worlds team.
Women's 400 free relay: Can the Dutch women complete a clean sweep?
Since the 2008 European Championships, the Dutch women have the undisputed queens on this event. They set a world record at that meet, and went on to Olympic gold. With a star performer in Marleen Veldhuis (53.17) and three other swimmers with solid 100 freestyles (Femke Heemskerk, Ranomi Kromowidjojo, and Inge Dekker), they should be the clear favorites.
Behind them, the Americans and the Aussies should battle for the silver. The Aussies have Libby Trickett, one of two swimmers who have broken 53 in the 100 free, as well as a group of solid 54 swimmers. If they choose to use Cate Campbell, who has been 53.3, but didn't make the team in this event, she will provide an instant boost.
The Americans will have a solid team consisting of Dana Vollmer, Amanda Weir, and Christine Magnuson, among others. Veterans Lacey Nymeyer and Dara Torres made the team, but not in this relay, so both could be added for big time drops. Other top countries include Germany, led by world record holder Britta Steffen, and China, led by Pang Jiaying.
Men's 800 free relay: The America Show
This relay should be the biggest no-brainer of any event at the Worlds. The Americans have six of the top 10 swimmers in the world in the 200 free, including five of the top six. They can swim any of their six in the finals and still win the gold. The only question will be if they can break their world record of 6:58.56 from Beijing. Also, don't count out the possibility of using Dan Madwed in prelims to save another swimmer for the finals.
The top contender for silver should be Russia, the silver medalists from Beijing, with Danila Izotov, Nikita Lobinsev, and Alexander Sukhorukov all at 1:46. The Italians will also be strong, with several 1:46s, such as Marco Belotti and Filippo Magnini, who has the fastest split in history. They should be the favorites for bronze.
The Australians are a big wildcard. They have Pat Murphy at 1:45-high, as well as Kenrick Monk and Nick Ffrost at 1:47 and several more at 1:48-low. Monk and Ffrost should both be able to split 1:45s in Rome and boost the team. A bronze is in their reach for sure. The Canadians have Brent Hayden, who has split 1:44 on the Beijing relay, as well as Colin Russell, while the Brits have a solid team led by Ross Davenport and Andrew Hunter.
Women's 800 free relay: Will the Brits get their revenge?
Until the Beijing Games, the Americans owned this event for years. At that meet, however, they were upset by a surprising team of Aussies. Now, Great Britain has emerged as one of the favorites for gold this summer. After a disappointing ninth-place finish in Beijing, the team contains Joanne Jackson and Rebecca Adlington, both 1:56-mid swimmers, as well as Olympic finalist Caitlin McClatchey. The fourth swimmer will probably be Jazmin Carlin, who swam 1:58.34 in June. Their closest competitors will be the Americans, who will swim Dana Vollmer (1:56.20) and Allison Schmitt (1:55.92 in 2008, 1:57.25 in 2009), along with two other swimmers. Possibilities include Julia Smit (1:56.73 in 2008), Ariana Kukors (1:58.28), and Dagny Knutson (1:57.73).
The Aussies do not have Linda MacKenzie or Kylie Palmer from last year, but they will have a solid team capable of chasing the bronze. Meagan Nay, Stephanie Rice, and Bronte Barratt lead that team. France has a solid foursome led by Coralie Balmy, a former short course world record holder, and Italy's team has world record holder Federica Pellegrini. Finally, watch out for China, the silver medalists in Beijing, who have Pang Jiaying.
Men's 400 medley relay: Can the U.S. hold off the up-and-comers of swimming?
In 2008, swimming's two powerhouses faced off in this relay, the final swim of the Beijing Olympics. The Americans won gold, maintaining their dominance in this event.
In 2009, however, several countries, such as Brazil and Germany, emerged as new threats with solid swimmers in all four 100 stroke events. After U.S. Nationals, however, the Americans are once again the team to beat, as they have two world record holders (Peirsol – 100 back, Phelps – 100 fly), along with a world number one (Gangloff – 100 breast) and a solid anchor (Adrian – 100 free). The Australians have lost world record holder Eamon Sullivan on the anchor leg, as well as Aussie record holder Hayden Stoeckel in the backstroke. However, with Ashley Delaney, Brenton Rickard or Christian Sprenger, Andrew Lauterstein, and Matt Targett, they have a shot at a medal.
Even without Kosuke Kitajima on breaststroke, Japan still has top swimmers in the first three strokes, although they still struggle mightily on freestyle. Russia has strong legs, although breaststroke may be the weakest. France finally has backstroke strength, so they are now powerful in all four strokes and a medal contender, especially with Alain Bernard or Fred Bousquet on freestyle. Germany should have a great front half and could keep up with the leaders. Brazil is very weak on backstroke, but they are decent on fly and have brilliant breaststroke (Henrique Barbosa) and freestyle (Cesar Cielo) legs. Other countries to watch include South Africa, New Zealand, Great Britain, and Italy.
Women's 400 medley relay: The Rivalry Continues
The United States and Australia have battled it out in this event for many years, and expect that to continue in Rome. The Americans haven't taken gold in this event since Sydney in 2000, but that could change in 2009. Without Leisel Jones on breaststroke, the Aussies lose the one leg that put them past the U.S. at the Olympics.
The Americans will swim Hayley McGregory, Rebecca Soni, Christine Magnuson (or Dana Vollmer), and then either Vollmer, Amanda Weir, or Dara Torres on freestyle. They will be countered by an Aussie team of Emily Seebohm or Belinda Hocking, Tarnee White or Sarah Katsoulis, Jessicah Schipper, and Libby Trickett.
The combined best times for each of the countries this year separates them by fifteen one-hundredths of a second, with America winning.
It is hard to imagine a scenario where these two teams don't go 1-2, but a potential spoiler could be China. With Zhao Jing, Qui Hi, Jiao Liuyang, and Pang Jiaying, their combined time is just more than a second behind the U.S. and Australia. The only possible threat to this top three is Great Britain, which boasts a powerful team led by Gemma Spofforth on backstroke.